中國(guó)路邊的零售業(yè)(英文版-文庫(kù)吧資料
2025-06-29 17:51本頁(yè)面
【正文】 22. International experience shows that gasoline retailing tends to be relatively profitable wherever the top three participants control 80 percent of the market, growth is strong, and the supply of gasoline is short. China should meet these conditions. PetroChina and Sinopec are consolidating the market by buying out their independent rivals and, given their head start over the multinationals, should succeed in gaining a leading position in the market. Growth in demand is forecast to remain high, especially for highquality gasoline. And although supply is currently in balance with demand at the national level, it runs short in the coastal regions, where both demand and growth are greatest.Retail margins are tightening fast, however. As in almost every deregulated Chinese industry, domestic price petition will probably be severe as the market opens up. PetroChina and Sinopec fought several damaging price wars from 1997 until they were restrained in 1999 by stateimposed price controls that are now being removed in tandem with China抯 entry into the WTO. The resumed price petition will intensify when new foreign and domestic panies are permitted to purchase sites in 2022. Moreover, all panies in the market will gain greater access to gasoline as import tariffs for refined products fall to 5 percent, from 9. Where parable reforms have taken place梚 n Australia, France, Israel, Japan, and New Zealand梤 etail margins have dropped by up to half.In anticipation of this fiercely petitive future environment, PetroChina, Sinopec, and new entrants willing to take them on are ratcheting up spending on locations, brands, and marketing. Good locations梩 he 20 percent of urban gasoline stations that generate 60 4 / 10percent of the revenues梐 re scarce, and zoning regulations and the high cost of land limit new entrants. These prime sites, which move more than 1,500 tons in volume and generate over 900,000 renminbi ($108,700) in fuelrelated gross margins a year, currently sell for up to 20,000,000 renminbi, three to six times the price of a station with equivalent turnover in the United States or Europe. The inflated costs at the high end of the market are also dragging up the price of smaller stations, to 5,000,000 to 10,000,000 renminbi. The cost of promotional campaigns, including television advertising, is about as steep as it is in developed markets.MAKING SITES PAYSelling gasoline and diesel fuel through retail outlets is a costly (and therefore risky) business. Unless PetroChina, Sinopec, and the foreign joint venture partners of both panies reconsider their indiscriminate buying of sites, they could find that their station portfolios hold more balance sheet liabilities than assets.It is vital to make the sites pay, but how? There is little scope to cut operating costs, which are already low by global standards。1 / 10Roadside retail in ChinaGasoline reaches the huge Chinese market through a fragmented retail and distribution work of about 90,000 stations, almost all state owned. Many are run more as sinecures than as businesses, often with a staff four to five times larger than the international norm but with less than a quarter of the average gasoline throughput of US stations. The Chinese government, which is well aware of the problem, has resolved not to allow the country energy infrastructure to burden the whole economy: it is fast deregulating the sector, which will be fully opened up to foreign panies in 2022 under the mitments attending the country membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Foreign oil panies have hitherto been restricted to oneoff local deals in special economic zones or tied to investments in tollroad construction.Although the stage should thus be set for canny corporations to move into the market, it remains unclear how they will make money. Competition is already driving down retail margins on gasoline, while prices for the best station sites have soared as China抯 large domestic oil panies have rushed to buy them. Oil panies in the West facing
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