【正文】 Hofmann(2013)對(duì)20個(gè)主要工業(yè)化國(guó)家的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與GDP、利率和貸款量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)20個(gè)國(guó)家中有巧個(gè)國(guó)家可以在10%的顯著性水平下拒絕房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與GDP和銀行。 Collins (2010)指出當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，銀行愿意放松貸款條件并提供更多的房地產(chǎn)貸款，提出了一個(gè)使房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期聯(lián)系起來(lái)的傳播機(jī)制，并強(qiáng)調(diào)在監(jiān)管薄弱和外資流入的情況下，該機(jī)制的作用可能放大。在該理論中，銀行貸款是形成資產(chǎn)泡沫的重要原因。Herring(2009)立足國(guó)際視角，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)泡沫和銀行危機(jī)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究，構(gòu)建了信貸市場(chǎng)模型，指出銀行的集中貸款導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)泡沫，房地產(chǎn)泡沫將可能引發(fā)銀行危機(jī)。作者認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變化影響借款人對(duì)自己財(cái)富的預(yù)期，進(jìn)而影響他們的消費(fèi)計(jì)劃，進(jìn)一步影響他們的信貸需求。最后在檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)之上，在閱讀大量相關(guān)方面文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)之上，提出商業(yè)銀行如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議。當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，房地產(chǎn)抵押貸款的擔(dān)?；A(chǔ)就會(huì)被削弱，而房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有累積性，一旦爆發(fā)，便會(huì)迅速擴(kuò)大，出現(xiàn)大面積的金融風(fēng)波。金融業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)資金的主要供給方，一旦出現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)，金融業(yè)的資金發(fā)生問(wèn)題，就會(huì)影響房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。因此，研究如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的各種矛盾也不斷凸顯出來(lái)，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目過(guò)度依賴銀行資金，把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)全部轉(zhuǎn)移給商業(yè)銀行，使商業(yè)銀行面對(duì)巨大的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，就是其中的一個(gè)突出矛盾。隨著次貸危機(jī)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，金融行業(yè)一個(gè)行業(yè)的危機(jī)開(kāi)始向多種實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)蔓延，零售業(yè)、汽車業(yè)、餐飲業(yè)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)銷售下降、需求萎縮的狀況。 Option refers to the risk due to various reasons in advance if the borrower repay the housing loan principal and interest of risk. If the central bank cut interest rates continuously, rational and will have the ability of borrowers to repay the outstanding loan lent a lower interest rate of loan, the default behavior will make the mercial bank profit losses. The risk of defaultAccording to the reasons, it can be divided into moral credit risk and the risk of credit moral credit risk. In real estate finance business, the morality risk refers to the borrower has the ability to clearly reimbursement, but due to interest, malicious or deferred payment is directly to stop paying and brings to the mercial bank credit risk. The moral hazard refers to the borrower under the influence of the factors of force majeure unable to plete the credit risk caused by payment. Among them, the morality is can control and manage credit risk, the current promoting credit reporting system is one of the preventive measures. According to the object can be divided into developers default risk and personal risk of default. Systemic riskAlso it is called undiversifiable risk, policy risk, mainly involved in the business of real estate finance economic cyclical fluctuation risk, purchasing power risk, etc. In order to prevent a housing bubble after the international financial crisis, countries enacted some inhibition of the real estate market economic policies and regulations, which have an impact on the real estate market, indirect affect the development of real estate finance business and innovation, so the policy risk can cause a loss to mercial Banks. Economic cycle fluctuation on economic blow is huge, and cannot be spread out, when the economy is in a low, the real estate market are not immune to the possibility of considerable mercial bank losses. Purchasing power risk, also known as inflation, changes in the price level leads to the real burden of borrowers and lenders and real earnings uncertainty, the possibility of actual loss of the mercial Banks.譯文房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范研究Dionne G摘要2007年4月2日，以美國(guó)第二大次級(jí)抵押貸款公司新世紀(jì)金融公司申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)為標(biāo)志，美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)。s expectations of their wealth, will affect their consumption plans, and further affect their credit demand. And from the perspective of the bank, the bank lending for real estate development loans and real estate assets mortgage is one of the most in all of its loan business procyclical characteristics, the most volatile assets. Herring (2009) based on the international perspective, the study on the relationship between the real estate bubble and the banking crisis, the credit market model was constructed, caused the real estate bubble is pointed out that the focus of bank loans, real estate bubble would be likely to cause a banking crisis. Gale (2009) proposed the asset price model based on credit expansion, think the assets on the basis of value is formed by the investors to use its own funds asset prices, when investors use borrowed money to invest, as investors to borrow money only for limited liability, they appear to be more preference for risk assets, so will continue to push up asset prices. In the theory, the bank loan is the important reason for the formation of asset bubbles. Krug (2010) through the study, almost all of the real estate bubble is caused by the bank financing. Collins (2010) pointed out that when real estate prices, the bank was willing to ease lending conditions and provide more real estate loans, proposed a link on the real estate industry and economic cycle of transmission mechanism, and stressed that in the case of weak regulation and foreign capital inflows, the role of the mechanism may be enlarged. Empirical researchCoolly (2012) of southeast Asia financial crisis in real estate prices and GDP per capita, loan balance vector auto regression analysis, points out that real estate prices will rise in six quarters of loans increase. Hofmann (2013) of 20 major industrialized countries real estate prices and GDP, the relationship between interest rates and lending was studied, and found that the 20 countries in the country can refuse to under 10% significance level real estate prices and GDP and bank loans null hypothesis does not exist cointegration relationship, and further points out that the changes in the real estate price cycle will lead to the change of the bank credit cycle for a long time. Davis (2010), selected sample data of 17 countries on mercial real estate prices and the relationship between the bank lending has carried on the empirical analysis, it is concluded that real estate prices will lead to the conclusion of bank credit expansion.3 Commercial Banks and real estate financial risks Real estate financeMany scholars have done how to define the connotation and extension of the real estate financial aspects of the discussion and research. Is widely recognized, real estate finance generalized refers to all and housing development, construction, trade, consumption and management of financing activities related to the economic activity and the narrow sense of real estate finance refers to the nonprofit housing agencies or consumer with the residents of housing development, construction, trade, consumption and management and other economic activi