【正文】 s ? 4,600 domestic drug manufactures Manufacturing ? 16,000 state owned pharmaceutical distributors ? 120,000 pharmaceutical retailers ? 15,000 hospitals ? 80% of drugs sold over hospitals and clinics Distribution Today ? 8 10 larger domestic research based drug manufactures backed by government ? Others merge, close or play niche roles in TCM1) ? Foreign percentage will further increase (to 70%?) ? 40 50 large regional/national distributors will account for 70% of sales ? foreign distribution specialists among the main players ? regional pharmacychains will develop ? percentage of pharmaceutical distribution will increase (to 40%?) Tomorrow 1) Traditional Chinese Medicine 42 presentationCEMSx E. Banking Lines 43 presentationCEMSx Financial Institutions under the People?s Bank of China Source: PBOC, . Harner and Company Lines 44 presentationCEMSx Recent trends: Declining overall volumes of foreign bank loans ? The withdrawal of many foreign banks from lending to Chinese borrowers due to perceptions of increased risks and regulatory restrictions ? The loss of market to Chinese banks as the market continues to follow a “dedepolarization” trend ? Ongoing restrictions on RMB lending and difficulties in securing stable funding of RMB liabilities Lines 45 presentationCEMSx Trends in Foreign Bank Loan Assets Source: PBOC [US$ bn] Lines 46 presentationCEMSx What opportunities will the WTO changes bring for foreign institutions? ? Immediately upon accession, foreign banks will be able to open accounts and do business in forei。s in China 4,600 Domestic manufactures Market growth: 15% . Sales capita: 1215 US$ Market by 20xx: 60 bn US$ 40 45% Lines 40 presentationCEMSx Price pressure in china39。 development ? Core petences: – Production – Quality assurance ? Additional services: – Product development (pattern making, prototyping) – Fabric sourcing 1 2 1): No own production sites 36 presentationCEMSx D. Pharmaceuticals Lines 37 presentationCEMSx China39。 USA %。 Deutsche Bane Alex. Brow. Sales, Leasing, Maintenance Strategic implications for foreign carmakers After WTO … ? Sales and distribution in the sole responsibility partner of a Chinese firm ? No direct contact with customers ? Few influence on distribution and maintenance policy and quality ? No car leasing possible Foreign firms are immediately allowed to form JV for sales, distribution and maintenance of their products, in 20xx they can own a majority in the JV and in 20xx all restrictions will fall away One third of carmakers plans to set up its own dealer work (. GM, Honda, Suzuki) or distribution JV with their partners (. VW) Before WTO … ? Direct customer contact / influence ? Branding and quality control ? Maintenance margins ? Investments ? Existing contracts ? Regional coverage Lines 21 presentationCEMSx The ponent manufacturers and part suppliers will feel the pressure most Customers ? Growing demand ? Expect more variety ? At lower prices Component manufacturers ? Have to lower prices by 10% . ? Increase their quality control ? Try to increase scale, value added or customer base ? Look for export markets ? Or seek for international/national alliance partners ? Or drop out of market Industry concentration of 50% over the next 5~10 years Carmakers ? Pressure for cost reductions ? Introduce new models ? Reconsider global sourcing ? Pressure for less suppliers (modules) Competitors ? New entries of global suppliers ? Lower prices aggressively ? Increase quality 22 presentationCEMSx C. Apparel amp。 0) Units Output (+50%) Loss Loss+5 BEP BEP+5 2 3 principle Market increase + 50%1) Lines 20 presentationCEMSx The car manufacturers will reconsider their distribution and maintenance work strategy Source: Roland Berger amp。 livestock Beverages/tobacco Extractive industries Wearing apparel Without accession to WTO With accession to WTO Metals Automobiles Electronics Other manufactures Business/finance Lines 9 presentationCEMSx With some dramatic consequences for employment (2) Source: World Bank, 1999 Jobs lost/newly created (in m) 5 . 45 5 . 41 2 . 52 . 6Commerce Apparel amp。 Res. Ctr. Of the State Connect, Goldman Buck, World Bank Corporate profits (ROI) Employ ment Social capital GDP Wealth Trade Foreign Investment (direct) ? Price amp。 paper Petrochemicals Metals Automobiles Other manu. Total manu. Total 2 7 . 42 3 . 5 51 2 9 . 0 32 0 . 22 1 . 5 9765 7 . 1 21 2 3 . 4 62 7 . 6 82 6 . 7 41 0 . 1 44 . 1 61 4 . 8 51 7 . 5 42 0 . 16 . 2 46 . 9 54 . 8 29 . 3 82 0 . 3 41 3 . 7 66 . 7 47 . 9 97 . 9 4Without With Lines 5 presentationCEMSx The impact of China?s WTO entry has a macroeconomic as well as industryspecific microeconomic impact Measures ? Tariff reductions ? Abolishment of nontariff barriers – Quotas (imp./exp.) – Licenses – Local content requirements – Distribution restrictions – Investment restrictions – etc. ? Introduction of legal protection – Copyrights – Autidumping Microeconomic impact ? More petitors ? Price pressure ? New sourcing strategies, lower factor cost ? More product variety ? Increasing productivity, restructuring ? Concentration process in some industries Macroeconomic impact ? More import amp。 livestock Dairy Other food Beverages amp。Lines 1 presentationCEMSx Strategic Impact of China?s entry into the WTO On Chinese and Foreign Companies Presentation for