【導(dǎo)讀】sentryintotheWTO. sWTOentry3. A.sWTOentry. Othermanu.Totalmanu.TheimpactofChina?Tariffreductions. –etc.Morepetitors. Pricepressure. Moreproductvariety. Moreimport&export. Employment. Price&qualitypetition. 1%additionalgrowth.34%until20xx. industries(.agriculture,50bnannually. saccessiontothe

　　

【正文】 ate label) ? Big retailers with own buying offices ? Lowmedium advanced agents ? Regional coverage of supplier countries for production in Asia ? National coverage (. Several production plants in different labor cost areas of China) Supplier country coverage ? All apparel product categories and qualities ? Focus on one / few product categories and / or qualities Product categories Services / petences ? Supply chain partner with core petences in fabric sourcing (worldwide), factory sourcing1) and quality control ? Additional innovative services in – Design (own collection) – Product development (flexible and quick prototyping through own production capacity) – Fabric research amp。 development ? Core petences: – Production – Quality assurance ? Additional services: – Product development (pattern making, prototyping) – Fabric sourcing 1 2 1): No own production sites 36 presentationCEMSx D. Pharmaceuticals Lines 37 presentationCEMSx China39。s WTO entry will have a strong impact on the pharmaceutical sector and distribution Tariff reduction Today 1/20xx Nontariff barrier abolishment ? Trading rights (import) phasing in ? Distribution/retail restrictions phased out within three years upon acc. ? Better intellectual property (brand) protection ? Transparency (publication of regulations) ? National treatment (abolishment of tax privileges, fair participation in public tenders % 60% drugs Average 15% 20% 10% Medical equipment and crude drugs Source: Trade/agreement ChinaUS % Lines 38 presentationCEMSx In fact the consumer prices of foreign imported drugs are usually 90% to 100% higher than the manufacturing price mainly due to an inefficient distribution system Drugpriceponents Distribution margins in % of turnover 100 0 100 [price index] 200 110 120 150 165 193 +17% VAT Manufacturer price Customs Clearing charges drug inspection Distribution Hospital markup VAT 25% 10 12% 3 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% China Japan Europe Source: Interviews, EIU, RBinfocenter 16,000 distributors/wholesalers 200 distributors/wholesalers 10 20 distributors 10 20 distributors Lines 39 presentationCEMSx Though the market share of foreign drug manufacturers is relatively high many market entry hurdles still remain Total drug market 20xx: 15 18 bn US$ NonWTO related Chinese walls ? Certification and Admission Procedure (State Drug Administration) ? Provincial and municipal reimbursement lists ? State Economic and Trade Commission permissions/licenses for pharmaceutical retail/wholesales ? PriceandProfitcontrolregulations ? Institutional/Legal environment – State news Medicine Examination and Approval Committee – State Pharmaceutical Administration of China (SPAC) – State Drug Administration (SDA) Source: MOTT, State Administration of Medicine Imports 1,800 foreign invested co39。s in China 4,600 Domestic manufactures Market growth: 15% . Sales capita: 1215 US$ Market by 20xx: 60 bn US$ 40 45% Lines 40 presentationCEMSx Price pressure in china39。s drug market will increase unrelated to WTO and make it difficult to generate profits ? state subsidized health care system ? widespread drug overprescription ? pharmaceutical’s 60% of total health care costs ? imported drugs enjoy often higher prices than domestic ? but domestic counterfeits are much cheaper ? all drug prices are controlled by the state on a provincial/municipal level Status ? state subsidysystem will be replaced by a system which includes individual contributions ? introduction of import price caps! Benchmark: price of domestic equivalents ? or: price in others developing countries lower price ceilings ? same applies to drugs manufactured by foreign JV’ s Uping new regulations Lines 41 presentationCEMSx And the WTO accession will trigger a concentration process in manufacturing and distribution ? 6,400 drug manufacturers ? 1,800 Sinoforeign JV39。s ? 4,600 domestic drug manufactures Manufacturing ? 16,000 state owned pharmaceutical distributors ? 120,000 pharmaceutical retailers ? 15,000 hospitals ? 80% of drugs sold over hospitals and clinics Distribution Today ? 8 10 larger domestic research based drug manufactures backed by government ? Others merge, close or play niche roles in TCM1) ? Foreign percentage will further increase (to 70%?) ? 40 50 large regional/national distributors will account for 70% of sales ? foreign distribution specialists among the main players ? regional pharmacychains will develop ? percentage of pharmaceutical distribution will increase (to 40%?) Tomorrow 1) Traditional Chinese Medicine 42 presentationCEMSx E. Banking Lines 43 presentationCEMSx Financial Institutions under the People?s Bank of China Source: PBOC, . Harner and Company Lines 44 presentationCEMSx Recent trends: Declining overall volumes of foreign bank loans ? The withdrawal of many foreign banks from lending to Chinese borrowers due to perceptions of increased risks and regulatory restrictions ? The loss of market to Chinese banks as the market continues to follow a “dedepolarization” trend ? Ongoing restrictions on RMB lending and difficulties in securing stable funding of RMB liabilities Lines 45 presentationCEMSx Trends in Foreign Bank Loan Assets Source: PBOC [US$ bn] Lines 46 presentationCEMSx What opportunities will the WTO changes bring for foreign institutions? ? Immediately upon accession, foreign banks will be able to open accounts and do business in for