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財(cái)務(wù)管理:理論與實(shí)踐25show(參考版)

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【正文】 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?The most wellknown bankruptcy prediction model is Edward Altman’s five factor model. ?Such models tend to work relatively well, but only for the near term. ?The more similar the historical sample to the firm being evaluated, the better the prediction. Some Final Points 。 if Z 1, bankruptcy is likely to occur. 25 30 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?The discriminant boundary, or Z line, statistically separates the bankrupt and solvent panies. ?Note that two panies have been misclassified by the MDA program: One bankrupt pany falls on the solvent (left) side and one solvent pany falls on the bankrupt (right) side. (More...) 25 29 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?Assume you have the following 1997 data for 12 panies: ?Current ratio ?Debt ratio ?Six of the panies (marked by Xs) went bankrupt in 1998 while six (marked by dots) remained solvent. MDA Illustration (More...) 25 27 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 25 Extension ?MDA to predict bankruptcy ?Recent business failures 25 25 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?Normally, bankruptcy is motivated by serious current financial problems. ?However, some panies have used bankruptcy proceedings for other purposes: ?To break union contracts ?To hasten liability settlements Other Motivations for Bankruptcy 25 23 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. Creditor Claim Distribution Unsatisfied Accrued wages $ $ $ Federal taxes Other taxes First mortgage Second mortgage $ $ $ Notes: (1) First mortgage receives entire proceeds from sale of fixed assets, leaving $0 for the second mortgage. (2) $ $ = $ remains for distribution to general creditors. Priority Distribution (millions of $) 25 21 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. Liquidation Illustration Data (millions of $) Creditor Claims: Accounts
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