財(cái)務(wù)管理：理論與實(shí)踐25show-閱讀頁
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【正文】 Initial Final Percent Creditor GC Claim Amountb Received Accounts payable $ $ $ % Notes payable Accrued wages Federal taxes Other taxes First mortgage Second mortgage Sub. deb. $ $ $ General Creditor Distribution (millions of $) a Pro rata amount = $13/$20 = . b Includes priority distribution and $ transfer from subordinated debentures. 25 22 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?Critics contend that current (1978) bankruptcy laws are flawed. ?Too much value is siphoned off by lawyers, managers, and trustees. ?Companies that have no hope remain alive too long, leaving little for creditors when liquidation does occur. ?Companies in bankruptcy can hurt other panies in industry. Some Criticisms of Bankruptcy Laws 25 24 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) is a statistical technique similar to multiple regression. ?It identifies the characteristics of firms that went bankrupt in the past. ?Then, data from any firm can be entered into the model to assess the likelihood of future bankruptcy. What is MDA, and how can it be used to predict bankruptcy? 25 26 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. Current Ratio Debt Ratio . . . . . . X X X X X X Discriminant Boundary Bankrupt Firms Solvent Firms (More...) = Solvent X = Bankrupt . 25 28 Copyright 169。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?Assume the equation for the boundary line is Z = 2 + (Current ratio) (Debt ratio). ?Furthermore, if Z = 1 to +1, the future of the pany is uncertain. If Z 1, bankruptcy is unlikely。 20xx Harcourt Inc. All rights reserved. ?Suppose Firm S has CR = and DR = . Then, Using MDA To Predict Bankruptcy Z = 2 + () () = +, and firm is unlikely to go bankrupt. ?Suppose Firm B has CR = and DR = . Then, Z = 2 + () () = , and firm is likely to go bankrupt. 25 31 Copyright 16
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