【正文】 Business, Wall Street Journal, EIU BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Poor in Short Term, Fair Long Term The outlook for United States passenger car sales growth is poor in the short term while long term prospects are no better than fair. ? The sales picture over the last 18 months has been distorted by sales incentive schemes (like 0% financing) which had immediate results. Sales created out of incentives tend to reflect consumption brought forward rather than new spending. Thus volumes will fall further over 2020. ? The US market is less likely to fall precipitously like previous peaktotrough eras in the automotive industry. Sales fell 29% in the early 1980s and 23% in the early 1990s. The peaktotrough sales from 2020 to 2020 are expected to amount to only 7%. ? The US market is currently saturated which does not bode well for long term growth (average annual growth in passenger car registrations between 2020 and 2020 are expected to be just % a year). This is similar to Germany, France and Italy, but slower than emerging markets. ? Currently none of the US‘s Big 3 automakers are well prepared for a major downturn in the automobile market and their medium term prospects will be constrained by global overcapacity and downward pressure on prices. ? Competition is likely to increase and the industry?s capacity will grow but the elasticity of demand is currently declining. Source: The Economist, , Man Stanley BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Macroeconomic Drivers ? The automotive industry has been driven by interest rates which were at 48year lows. Rates are forecast to increase through 2020 which will have some effect on sales. ? GDP is expected to increase in 3Q03 and increase by a point in 4Q03. GDP should stabilize through 2020. ? Unemployment is expected to stabilize as job creation picks up, however not at a rapid rate. 3 . 5 1 . 50 . 52 . 54 . 56 . 51Q012Q013Q014Q011Q022Q023Q024Q021Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q043Q044Q041Q052Q053Q054Q05Forecast Source: GDP and Interest Rate forecasts, Interest Rates 34567891011121995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020I n t e r e s t R a t e ( 1 ) I n t e r e s t R a t e ( 2 ) U n e m p l o y m e n tGDP Notes: (1) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Commercial Bank (2) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Finance Company Forecast BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Expense and Profitability Forecasts Source: 00 . 511 . 522 . 532020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020Y e a rNet Profit Margin (%)99 . 5101 0 . 5111 1 . 5121 2 . 5Operating Margin (%)N e t P r o f i t M a r g i n ( % ) O p e r a t i n g M a r g i n ( % )? Sales have increased but profit margins have suffered due to 0% financing and are only rebounding slightly. Net profits and operating margins should stay flat for the remainder of the forecast. ? Capital spending is expected to increase slightly over the forecast. Ford is expected to spend $1,210 on cap ex/unit produced (GM is at $886). ? Sales will stay flat through 2020 and increase only slightly in 2020. The biggest jump in sales is expected between 2020 and 2020. ? High end, SUV and minivan models offer higher profit margins, but their sales have declined reducing profitability. 01002003004005006007008009002020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020Y e a rMillions ($)S a l e sO p e r a t i n gE x p e n s e sN e tI n c o m eC a p i t a lS p e n d i n gForecast Forecast BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Global Automotive Industry Outlook: Emerging Markets, Consolidation In the year ahead, there are some significant changes that should affect the global automotive industry, especially in light of its considerable pressures like cost, maintaining 。 GM has more than 7,500. Assessing the performance of each dealership, setting its goals for the future, and overseeing the necessary changes is a threeto fiveyear process. ? Manufacturers can start by mapping the best locations for their showrooms and service centers in every local market by analyzing historic and projected sales data, demographics, and market trends. Most manufacturers have not undertaken these steps, and thus can‘t identify dealers that have both the skills and the resources to add brands to their franchises or to succeed in new locations. ? To have an optimally configured work, the manufacturer must put the best dealers in control of it. This may be acplished by using negotiators to facilitate the transfer of ownership among dealers in each market. ? Manufacturers will need to work through dealers to fe a consensus that benefits both them and the dealers to overe regulatory impediments. Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy amp。 Business, Wall Street Journal, EIU BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Distribution: Inefficient Network ? State franchise laws and other regulations protect dealers from ―intrusive‖ moves of OEMs. In some states, direct ownership of dealers by manufacturers is prohibited outright。s sales results to the current year‘s preplanned volume without consideration of how many days it took to sell specific vehicles. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Distribution: Inefficient Network Dealers account for nearly all US car and mercialvehicle sales, but these works are increasingly inefficient. Automotive panies have not been able to relocate or shut down poor performers due to state laws. However, it is possible to reshape dealer works by orchestrating a serie