【正文】 as job creation picks up, however not at a rapid rate. 3 . 5 1 . 50 . 52 . 54 . 56 . 51Q012Q013Q014Q011Q022Q023Q024Q021Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q043Q044Q041Q052Q053Q054Q05Forecast Source: GDP and Interest Rate forecasts, Interest Rates 34567891011121995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020I n t e r e s t R a t e ( 1 ) I n t e r e s t R a t e ( 2 ) U n e m p l o y m e n tGDP Notes: (1) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Commercial Bank (2) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Finance Company Forecast BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Expense and Profitability Forecasts Source: 00 . 511 . 522 . 532020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020Y e a rNet Profit Margin (%)99 . 5101 0 . 5111 1 . 5121 2 . 5Operating Margin (%)N e t P r o f i t M a r g i n ( % ) O p e r a t i n g M a r g i n ( % )? Sales have increased but profit margins have suffered due to 0% financing and are only rebounding slightly. Net profits and operating margins should stay flat for the remainder of the forecast. ? Capital spending is expected to increase slightly over the forecast. Ford is expected to spend $1,210 on cap ex/unit produced (GM is at $886). ? Sales will stay flat through 2020 and increase only slightly in 2020. The biggest jump in sales is expected between 2020 and 2020. ? High end, SUV and minivan models offer higher profit margins, but their sales have declined reducing profitability. 01002003004005006007008009002020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020Y e a rMillions ($)S a l e sO p e r a t i n gE x p e n s e sN e tI n c o m eC a p i t a lS p e n d i n gForecast Forecast BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Global Automotive Industry Outlook: Emerging Markets, Consolidation In the year ahead, there are some significant changes that should affect the global automotive industry, especially in light of its considerable pressures like cost, maintaining 。s sales results to the current year‘s preplanned volume without consideration of how many days it took to sell specific vehicles. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Distribution: Inefficient Network Dealers account for nearly all US car and mercialvehicle sales, but these works are increasingly inefficient. Automotive panies have not been able to relocate or shut down poor performers due to state laws. However, it is possible to reshape dealer works by orchestrating a series of ownership changes, encouraging weak performers to exit the market, helping top performers to expand, and encouraging dealers to improve sales skills. Given tight profit margins, manufacturers can definitely use the extra profit that a more efficient distribution system could deliver. ? dealer works were built in an incremental and uncoordinated way over several decades creating room for consolidation as well as other efficiencyenhancing improvements. ? Manufacturers have awarded franchises to thousands of independent owneroperators ranging from small family businesses to large scale national chains. ? Once a dealership opens for business, the manufacturer can‘t exert much direct control over it and must be content, essentially, with the role of product and financing supplier. Multibrand manufacturers face the additional plication of dealing with several overlapping works that work against one another. ? A dealer has substantial power to put a manufacturer‘s top and bottom lines at risk—for example, by cutting back its investment in facilities, pushing the brands of petitors, or pursuing fewer but highermargin sales at the expense of the manufacturer‘s volume goals—thereby optimizing its profits and undermining those of the OEM. ? US automotive manufacturers rely almost entirely on dealers to distribute their products. In 2020, dealerships had sales of more than $800 billion—close to 100% of the manufacturers‘ total vehicle sales. The manufacturers also depend on their dealer works to provide the aftersales parts and services that are fundamental to their success. Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy amp。 IT spending has suffered as a North American manufacturing market constitutes approximately 45% of the total world manufacturing IT spend. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Executive Summary ? Currently in the automotive industry there is less significance placed on the role of IT in supporting business strategies, especially in parison to industries like Financial Services or Healthcare payer industries. This is a large determinant of IT budget. ? In order to understand their nearterm sales volume, option mix and price sensitivity, automakers have to start understanding their customers better through the many signals they see from their consumers‘ interactions. Much of this can be acplished through CRM initiatives. ? While dealer incentives have been used by most of the major automakers, especially in the US, panies leveraging their existing CRM might be able to get more for less. The data gathered from incentive programs flowing back to manufacturers and dealers can allow followup campaigns that bridge the gap between sales and marketing. ? ERP vendors are turning their focus to delivering extended applications in areas of SCM, CRM and PLM to pensate for the loss of revenue from largescale projects. Competitors and Alliances ? Deloitte Consulting has a joint initiative with SAP to support the automotive industry in the deployment of the mySAP Automotive solution on a worldwide basis. As part of this initiative, DC and SAP are developing m