【正文】 m reminded of the line from Henry Ford, who understood he does no good to his business if his own people can39。application of heuristics39。s Berkman Center for Inter amp。ve been living a relatively slow but certain progress in these fields from the 1960s.” Christopher Wilkinson, a retired European Union official, board member for , and Inter Society leader said, “The vast majority of the population will be untouched by these technologies for the foreseeable future. AI and robotics will be a niche, with a few leading applications such as banking, retailing, and transport. The risks of error and the imputation of liability remain major constraints to the application of these technologies to the ordinary landscape.” 9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Argument 5: Our social, legal, and regulatory structures will minimize the impact on employment A final group suspects that economic, political, and social concerns will prevent the widespread displacement of jobs. Glenn Edens, a director of research in working, security, and distributed systems within the Computer Science Laboratory at PARC, a Xerox Company, wrote, “There are significant technical and policy issues yet to resolve, however there is a relentless march on the part of mercial interests (businesses) to increase productivity so if the technical advances are reliable and have a positive ROI then there is a risk that workers will be displaced. Ultimately we need a broad and large base of employed population, otherwise there will be no one to pay for all of this new world.” Andrew Rens, chief council at the Shuttleworth Foundation, wrote, “A fundamental insight of economics is that an entrepreneur will only supply goods or services if there is a demand, and those who demand the good can pay. Therefore any country that wants a petitive economy will ensure that most of its citizens are employed so that in turn they can pay for goods and services. If a country doesn39。 are on the road.” Pamela Rutledge, PhD and director of the Media Psychology Research Center, responded, “There will be many things that machines can39。selfdriving39。 they may not be strictly attributable to the uses of automation but they are related…what the middle of the 20th century shows us is how dramatic major economic changes are—like the 1970s OPECdriven increases of the price of oil—and how those changes can dwarf the effects of technology.” Argument 3: There are certain jobs that only humans have the capacity to do A number of respondents argued that many jobs require uniquely human characteristics such as empathy, creativity, judgment, or critical thinking—and that jobs of this nature will never succumb to widespread automation. David Hughes, a retired . Army Colonel who, from 1972, was a pioneer in individual to/from digital telemunications, responded, “For all the automation and AI, I think the 39。t reduce them. A car that can guide itself on a striped street has more difficulty with an unstriped street, for example, and any automated system can handle events that it is designed for, but not events (such as a child chasing a ball into a street) for which it is not designed. Y es, I expect a lot of change. I don39。 global attitudes and . social and demo graphic trends. All of the center?s reports are available at . Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Alan Murray, President Michael Dimock, Vice President, Research Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Andrew Kohut, Founding Director 169。 media and journalism。 Inter and technology。 Pew Research Center 20xx About the Imagining the Inter Center at Elon University The Imagining the Inter Center? s mission is to explore and provide insights into emerging work innovations, global development, dynamics, diffusion and governance. Its research holds a mirror to humanity?s use of munications technologies, informs policy development, exposes potential futures and provides a historic record. It works to illuminate issues in order to serve the greater good, making its work public, free and open. The center is a work of Elon University faculty, students, staff, alumni, advisers, and friends working to identify, explore and engage with the challenges and opportunities of evolving munications forms and issues. They investigate the tangible and potential pros and cons of newmedia channels through active research. The Imagining the Inter Center sponsors work that brings people together to share their visions for the future of munications and the future of the world. 3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Table of Contents About This Report 1 Key Findings 4 About this Canvassing of Experts 16 Predictions for the State of AI and Robotics in 2025 19 Views from Those Who Expect AI and Robotics to Have a Positive or Neutral Impact on Jobs by 2025 33 Views from Those Who Expect AI and Robotics to Displace More Jobs than They Create by 2025 44 Areas Where Both Groups Agree 55 4 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Key Findings The vast majority of respondents to the 20xx Future of the Inter canvassing anticipate that robotics and artificial intelligence will permeate wide segments of daily life by 2025, with huge implications for a range of industries such as health care, transport and logistics, customer service, and home maintenance. But even as they are largely consistent in their predictions for the evolution of technology itself, they are deeply divided on how advances in AI and robotics will impact the economic and employment picture over the next decade. We call this a canvassing because it is not a representative, randomized survey. Its findings emerge from an “opt in” invitation to experts who have been identified by researching those who are widely