【正文】 2022/3/13 84 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk classification (1) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類(lèi) The ERM classifies into internal external risks 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 這就是為什么企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理需要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣的原因。 2022/3/13 78 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (1) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的 5個(gè)組成部分 Exposure = maximum amount we can lose? 曝光性 = 可損失的最大數(shù)額？ Volatility = variability of certain outes of risks 波動(dòng)性 = 特 定結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 的 可變性 Probability = how likely can a risk occur? 可能性 = 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生可能？ Severity = how high is the real damage if the risk occurs? 嚴(yán)重性 = 如果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)現(xiàn)，真實(shí)的損失有多高？ Horizon = when can the risk occur? 水平線 = 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)何時(shí)發(fā)生？ 2022/3/13 79 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (2) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的 5個(gè)組成部分 the people on the street only look at the probability excellent leaders look at the severity 普通民眾只關(guān)心其可能性。 要想把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變?yōu)闄C(jī)遇，我們需要企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理培訓(xùn)。 2022/3/13 71 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (9) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Every decision is risky. Even a nondecision is a decision, but 100 times more risky. 每一個(gè)決定都有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 2022/3/13 61 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (13) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 In the US and EU, ERM is pulsory For listed panies due to laws, .: 在美國(guó)和歐洲， 有關(guān)法律規(guī)定所有上市公司必須執(zhí)行企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 US: SOX 404 ( Sarbanes Oxley Act No. 404 ) 美國(guó)： 《 2022年薩班斯 奧克利斯法案 》 的 404條款 Germany : Act of Risk + Transparency 德國(guó)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與透明度法案 2022/3/13 62 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (14) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 EU: Risk + Solvency Solution Act 歐盟：風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 清償能力解決法案 Banking industry: Basle 1, 2, 3 Accord 銀行業(yè)：巴塞爾協(xié)議 1， 2， 3 Insurance Industry: Solvency 2 Law 保險(xiǎn)業(yè)：清償能力制度修改草案 2022/3/13 63 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (1) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 We regard all functions, projects, tasks from the risk perspective on all levels of the pany and through the whole work flow management. 我們把所有的職能 、 項(xiàng)目 和任務(wù) 都看作為以企業(yè)各個(gè)層 面 的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觀點(diǎn)出發(fā)， 并 貫穿整個(gè)工作流程 的 管理。 整個(gè)課程用時(shí)三年，我們提供生產(chǎn)部門(mén)，銀行業(yè)，保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)（精算學(xué) ). 2022/3/13 59 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (11) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 ERM science text books contain of about 10000 pages. preconditions are: University study + business experience + three languages 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理教科書(shū) 大約有 一萬(wàn)頁(yè)內(nèi)容。 2022/3/13 56 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (8) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 That is why ERM is also called “Integrated Enterprise Risk Management Approach” 這就是為什么企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理也可稱(chēng)為 “ 綜合企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法 ” 。 2022/3/13 54 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (6) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 ERM classifies the pany in internal external stakeholders. Both groups fight for their conflicting interests. The job of the Top Management is to handle and to balance these interests. 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理將企業(yè)分為內(nèi)部和外部 利益相關(guān)者 。 2022/3/13 52 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (4) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 The ERM concept regards a pany as a human being: Body, soul, heart, emotions, energy – all is one and interdependent. The ERM concept follows the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) – thinking. 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論將企業(yè)看作為一個(gè)自然人： 身體，靈魂，心，情感，精力 – 渾然一體 ，相互依賴(lài)。 問(wèn)題是：怎樣應(yīng)對(duì)和誰(shuí)來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)？ 2022/3/13 50 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (2) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 The old risk concept was a “silo – approach” Everybody handled the risks in his own sector and only when they occurred. 以往的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 管理 概念是 “ 獨(dú)立方案 ” 。 2022/3/13 47 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Interim results (5) 中期結(jié)論 However: Where there are risks there are chances too. Where there are losers there are winners though. You can only be a winner, if your Enterprise Knowledge Management is top 然而： 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與機(jī)遇并存 。 它的可能性是確實(shí)須要引起重視。 2022/3/13 39 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (4) 2022年中國(guó)快速發(fā)展崩盤(pán)？ One of the 2 decreasing facts stipulates: If the booming nation has reached a high level international education system, then the probability ratio decreases. 其中一項(xiàng)可降低崩盤(pán)可能性因素指出： 若該快速發(fā)展國(guó)家可提高其教育程度至國(guó)際化水平， 則可有效降低崩盤(pán)可能性 。 2022/3/13 36 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (1) 2022年中國(guó)快速發(fā)展崩盤(pán)？ The research paper analyses the situation of 4 previous booming nations since 1957: Germany, Argentina, Japan, Korea. In a 2nd step it pared the results with the situation in China 該研究舉例分析了自 1957年以來(lái)德國(guó)，阿根廷， 日本及韓國(guó)的快速發(fā)展情況 .而后的第二步， 他們將得出的結(jié)論與中國(guó)的現(xiàn)狀相對(duì)比。 類(lèi)似情況 還將會(huì)發(fā)生在其 它 地區(qū)。 2022/3/13 31 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Natural Disasters (2) 自然災(zāi)害 The climate change will impact our living standards. The CO2 output and the melting of the ice on the poles can39。 2022/3/13 24 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Cons