【正文】 的 30年要在還債中度過(guò)， 以至于必須要下一代來(lái)承擔(dān)這一重?fù)?dān)。 2022/3/13 19 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Financial + Banking crises (4) 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機(jī) Japan covers 200 % debts based on its GDP. How can they survive? 日本也欠下了超過(guò)其國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值 200%的債務(wù)。 他們?cè)鯓硬拍芾^續(xù)生存？ 2022/3/13 20 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Financial + Banking crises (5) 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機(jī) How to get rid of the government debts? The US print money and the rest of the world has to buy and to rescue the US. But for how long? 如何擺脫政府債務(wù) 困境 ？ 美國(guó)印刷美元，其他國(guó)家 被迫 購(gòu)買(mǎi) 并以此來(lái) 拯救美國(guó)。 但是這 能持續(xù) 多久？ 2022/3/13 21 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Financial + Banking crises (6) 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機(jī) Macro – economic an inflation – strategy would be the historical answer. But inflation kills debts and wealth!! 縱觀 歷史 答案將是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì) 層面的 通貨膨脹。 但是通貨膨脹不僅消滅債務(wù) 更 消滅財(cái)富?。?！ 2022/3/13 22 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Political crises 政治危機(jī) The interdependency between economic + political crises shows: Political crises lead to economical crises and vice versa 經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)與政治危機(jī)的相關(guān)性顯示： 政治危機(jī)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，反之亦然。 2022/3/13 23 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The EU crises (1) 歐盟危機(jī) Greece, Ireland, Portugal are under the EU financial rescue umbrella. Technically these countries are bankrupt. 希臘，愛(ài)爾蘭和葡萄牙雖然處于歐盟財(cái)政救援 的 保護(hù)傘下， 但是， 理論上講 ，他們都已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)了。 2022/3/13 24 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The EU crises (2) 歐盟危機(jī) Who is next? Spain, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Belgium, and ? ??? 誰(shuí)將會(huì)是下一個(gè)？ 西班牙，意大利，匈牙利，波蘭，羅馬尼亞，比利時(shí)，還是 ???? 2022/3/13 25 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The EU crises (3) 歐盟危機(jī) In reality the EU – zone country rescue program is an EU banking rescue program, due to their huge Government bond positions in their balance sheets 由于在其（銀行）資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中政府公債數(shù)額巨大， 歐盟國(guó)家救援計(jì)劃事實(shí)上是歐盟銀行業(yè)救援計(jì)劃。 2022/3/13 26 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The North African + Middle East crises (1) 北非與中東危機(jī) Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq – all countries show war, riots, revolutions ? and huge social, political, economical disasters. 突尼斯，埃及，利比亞，敘利亞，也門(mén)，巴林，伊朗，伊拉克 – 這些國(guó)家都在經(jīng)歷著戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，暴動(dòng)與革命 ? 以及巨大的社會(huì)，政治，經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。 2022/3/13 27 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The North African + Middle East crises (2) 北非與中東危機(jī) Who is next? Saudi Arabia? 誰(shuí)將會(huì)是下一個(gè)？ 沙特阿拉伯？ 2022/3/13 28 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Central African crises (1) 中非危機(jī) Somalia, Ethiopia, Namibia, Ivory Cote ? about 40 % of the African nations are economical “dead”. 索馬里，埃塞俄比亞，納米比亞，象牙科特 ? 大約 40%的非洲國(guó)家都已經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)“死亡”。 2022/3/13 29 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Central African crises (2) 中非危機(jī) Who is next? How fast will the virus of independency + democracy spread over Africa? 誰(shuí)將會(huì)是下一個(gè)？ 獨(dú)立與民主之風(fēng)在非洲的蔓延將會(huì)有多快？ 2022/3/13 30 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Natural Disasters (1) 自然災(zāi)害 The leading global Re – Insurers predict: natural disasters will increase with 70 % based on year 2022 within the next 5 years 根據(jù) 全球 頂尖 再保險(xiǎn) 公司 預(yù)測(cè)： 以 2022年為基準(zhǔn)，在未來(lái)的五年中， 自然災(zāi)害將會(huì)增長(zhǎng) 70%。 2022/3/13 31 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Natural Disasters (2) 自然災(zāi)害 The climate change will impact our living standards. The CO2 output and the melting of the ice on the poles can39。t be stopped anymore. 氣候變化將會(huì)影響我們的生活水準(zhǔn)。 二氧化碳過(guò)度排放造成的溫室效應(yīng)及 兩極冰川消融將無(wú)法阻止。 2022/3/13 32 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Natural Disasters (3) 自然災(zāi)害 Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Atomic radiation disasters like in Japan, (loss of 500 billion USD) will happen in other regions. China builds the centre of the most dangerous earthquake probability 日本地震，海嘯，核輻射災(zāi)難造成了近 5000億美元的損失。 類(lèi)似情況 還將會(huì)發(fā)生在其 它 地區(qū)。 中國(guó)一些地區(qū)也處于地震活躍帶。 2022/3/13 33 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China And how about China? (1) 中國(guó)呢？ The Chinese economic dependency on the US and EU is tremendous (over 50 % of its GDP) 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)于依賴(lài)美國(guó)和歐盟 “超過(guò)了國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的 50%” 2022/3/13 34 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China And how about China? (2) 中國(guó)呢？ If the US and/or the EU face major economic problems, China will be hit with a certain time lag. 如果美國(guó)或者 /和歐盟面臨著 較大的 經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題， 中國(guó)將會(huì)在一定時(shí)間 段 內(nèi)受到?jīng)_擊。 2022/3/13 35 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China And how about China? (3) 中國(guó)呢？ How is China prepared? A famous US University predicts a China Crash in 2022 中國(guó)準(zhǔn)備好了嗎？ 據(jù)美國(guó)一所著名大學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)全面快速發(fā)展局面 將會(huì)在 2022年崩盤(pán)。 2022/3/13 36 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (1) 2022年中國(guó)快速發(fā)展崩盤(pán)？ The research paper analyses the situation of 4 previous booming nations since 1957: Germany, Argentina, Japan, Korea. In a 2nd step it pared the results with the situation in China