【正文】 affect the global automotive industry, especially in light of its considerable pressures like cost, maintaining production schedules, and sustaining or gaining market share. Largest emerging markets Brazil and China will contribute the most growth in terms of demand. Consolidation continues to be an issue however local players that are regionally or nichefocused will still have an important presence.,Government safety and environmental regulations could be costly for automakers but also lead to greater investments in hightech suppliers, leading to entirely new automotive innovations. It is likely that the global automotive industry will eventually need to resort to radical changes in order to see past profitability.,Autofacts Global Automotive Forecast, 2Q ‘03,Automotive Regional Markets: Business Challenges,Western Europe: Difficult Environment,In the first four months of the year, the European auto market shrank 3.7% compared with the same period in 2002. Continued difficult markets in Europe could lead to more exports to the United States which will further weaken pricing there. Economic recovery remains weak in Europe and growth of passenger car and commercial vehicle sales is negative. European demand for trucks is likely to remain weak throughout this year, perhaps starting to recover in 2004 and 2005, depending on the segment and geographic area. Constant price pressures are causing European manufacturers to seek greater efficiency improvements and costsavings measures. Many European manufacturers are concentrating on internal operations to improve their financial performance and cash flow generation over 2003. The divergent taxing systems currently in place across Europe complicate and hinder efforts to roll out panEuropean leasing services for automobiles. The EU is currently working towards greater tax harmony, allowing companies to cater to multinational corporations more easily, promoting growth in the car leasing sector. As a result, cross border leasing may become vastly easier to implement from 2005, when leasing companies will be able to centrally organize their international operations and bypass differences in regional regulations.,Source: EIU,Western Europe: Asian Automakers Are Making Major Inroads,Sales of Japanese cars in Europe are setting new records. Given their healthy profit margins and expanding production base in Europe, the Japanese appear well placed to increase their share of the European market significantly over the next decade at the expense of Europe’s weaker carmakers. New car registrations in Western Europe dropped 6.5% in April year on year, crimped by slow economic growth and the Iraq war. At the same time, Japanese brands recorded a 5% jump. The Japanese now hold a market share of 12.1% in Europe, up from 10.8% a year ago, and that number is expected to increase. Europe’s bestselling car is now the Mazda 6, boosting Mazda’s yearonyear sales by more than 40% between January and April 2003. Japan’s market share gain is not likely to restart the trade disputes of the 80s and 90s because the number of cars the Japanese are exporting to Europe has not jumped significantly. The Japanese have expanded their production facilities in Europe with the result that locally produced vehicles now account for about 50% of sales in the EU, as opposed to less than 25% ten years ago. The recent leap over the 10% market share mark, however, is cause for concern for European carmakers, as the Japanese are gaining ground at the expense of some of the industry’s biggest names. Volkswagen, for example, saw sales plummet by 15.4% year on year in April. At the same time, Germany’s leading carmaker reported profits plummeted by twothirds in the first quarter, blaming the weak dollar in the US and its lack of new models. France’s Renault is forecasting no increase in profits this year and Italy’s Fiat is struggling to eliminate its losses.,Source: EIU,Western Europe: Asian Automakers Are Making Major Inroads,By contrast, all of Japan’s big three carmakers posted record net profits for 2002, with Toyota reporting an increase of 53.4% and Mitsubishi Motors announcing a tripling of profits. Most of these increases are due to costcutting at home, where sales remain flat. Production of cars has been falling for the last two months in Japan, while exports to Europe jumped 14.4% in April, the eighth straight monthly increase. South Korean carmakers are also making inroads in EuropeKIA’s sales soared by nearly 70% in April year on year, pushing it past Mitsubishi, Saab and Lancia, and giving it 0.9% of the EU market. Korea is also acquiring share in Europe, gaining 0.6pp in June 2003. KIA, the main beneficiary, was up 0.4pp while Hyundai followed with 0.2pp. Opportunities for new entrants or existing participants to increase their market share in countries like Spain are good because there is little brand loyalty—only 27% of owners buy the same make of car as before, compared to 50% in France and Germany. The result is intense competition: profitability is the lowest in Europe, and none of the five most popular manufacturers holds more than 13% of the market.,Source: EIU,Western Europe: Germany Not Buying,Germany: Volkswagen heading To AsiaPac, Truck Business Western Europe and the German market are near the low levels of last year and the first quarter. In Germany there is still a massive reluctance to buy, a high savings rate, yet a very high average age of automobiles. Volkswagen AG completed a major refocus of its vehicle export program, with a withdrawal from the European market and new penetration into the AsiaPacific region, including Japan. VW experienced a reduction by 3000 units of the manufacturer39。s exports in the first half of 2003, when compared to the same period in 2002 — a fall from 16,000 to 13,000. The company is in talks to buy the truck division of German conglomerate MAN AG to realize its strategy of eventually producing everything from light p