【正文】 nal Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (8) 企業(yè)風險管理的關鍵原則 Definition of the term “risk” A risk is the uncertainty and the likelihood of the impact of objectives of an action of a pany “ 風險 ” 的 定義， 風險是企業(yè)行為對目標影響的不確定性和可能性。 2022/3/13 71 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (9) 企業(yè)風險管理的關鍵原則 Every decision is risky. Even a nondecision is a decision, but 100 times more risky. 每一個決定都有風險。 甚至不 做 決定也是一個決定， 而不做決定的風險更是百倍于其它。 2022/3/13 72 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (10) 企業(yè)風險管理的關鍵原則 The risk dilemma and the need of ERM: Every year an MNC faces over 1 million risks. We call this the “risk dilemma”. To handle risks as a chance, we need ERM training. 風險困境與企業(yè)風險管理需要： 跨國公司每年都要面臨超過一百萬 種 的風險。 我們稱之為 “ 風險困境 ” 。 要想把風險變?yōu)闄C遇，我們需要企業(yè)風險管理培訓。 2022/3/13 73 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (11) 企業(yè)風險管理的關鍵原則 Logic behind: every action has a reason (past) every action has a chain reaction (future) 背后的邏輯： 每一個行為都有其原因（過去） 每一個行為都有其連鎖反 應 （將來） 2022/3/13 74 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (1) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風險管理的優(yōu)點 ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風險管理的企業(yè) store and structure their knowledge in special EDP systems 利用特殊的專業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫 存儲并 架構知識體系 are 25 % more intelligent than others 比其他企業(yè)明智 25% act professional on all levels 在各個 層 面 的表現(xiàn) 更為專業(yè) 2022/3/13 75 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (2) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風險管理的優(yōu)點 ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風險管理的企業(yè) can measure 80 % of all actions 可衡量 80%的行為后果 show a high degree of interaction + internal munication 表現(xiàn)出高度的互動性及內部交流 run their controlling systems on EVA basis 基于 經濟附加值基礎上 的控制 體系 increase the internal efficiency ratio with over 50 % in general 內部效率 普遍 增長超過 50% 2022/3/13 76 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (3) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風險管理的優(yōu)點 ERM driven panies 進行企業(yè)風險管理的企業(yè) get between 25 % and 55 % more profit (EBIT) after implementation 實行后利潤 (息稅前收益 EBIT)可增加 25%到 55% the staffs are much higher motivated 員工 積極性更高 the fluctuation ratio decreases with about 50 % 員工流動率減少 50% 2022/3/13 77 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The implementation of ERM 企業(yè)風險管理的實行 The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) today is a member of the Board He leads the risk department, often a part of the Controlling department His credo is: “no surprise”! Whatever may happen, he has a fast solution 現(xiàn)在，首席風險官是董事會的一員， 其所負責的風險部門，通常作為控制部門的一部分。 他的信條是： “ 從不吃驚。 ” 無論發(fā)生了什么，他都擁有快速解決方案。 2022/3/13 78 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (1) 風險的 5個組成部分 Exposure = maximum amount we can lose? 曝光性 = 可損失的最大數(shù)額？ Volatility = variability of certain outes of risks 波動性 = 特 定結果的風險 的 可變性 Probability = how likely can a risk occur? 可能性 = 風險發(fā)生可能？ Severity = how high is the real damage if the risk occurs? 嚴重性 = 如果風險發(fā)現(xiàn)，真實的損失有多高？ Horizon = when can the risk occur? 水平線 = 風險何時發(fā)生？ 2022/3/13 79 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (2) 風險的 5個組成部分 the people on the street only look at the probability excellent leaders look at the severity 普通民眾只關心其可能性。 卓越的領導人更關注其嚴重性。 2022/3/13 80 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (3) 風險的 5個組成部分 people on the street always misunderstand mathematical statistics .: car + accident/SARS/buyers default/earthquake 普通民眾容易誤解數(shù)字數(shù)據(jù)的意義。 如： 汽車 + 事故 /非典 /買方違約 /地震 2022/3/13 81 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Risk Correlations 風險相關性 All 5 risk ponents correlate to each other, either as single risks or in a bined form. That is the reason why ERM needs a risk matrix. 這 5個風險組成部分相互關聯(lián)， 有時是 獨立 風險， 有時是以 組合 的方式呈現(xiàn) 。 這就是為什么企業(yè)風險管理需要風險矩陣的原因。 2022/3/13 82 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Risk Capital 風險資本 At the end of all assessments and measurements ERM evaluates the capital to finance the risk. 在所有評定和測量之后， 企業(yè)風險管理 需 評估 應對 風險所需資金。 2022/3/13 83 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk and Insurance 風險與保險 However, we can insure or reinsure these risks by intelligent risk insurance solutions (layer – systems, captives, reinsurance treaties). Thus, an insurance bees a substitution of capital 然而，我們可以通過明智的風險保險解決方案， 如 分層 體系，專屬公司自我保險，再保險協(xié)議等， 對這些風險進行保險或再保險。 因此，保險成為資金的替代品。 2022/3/13 84 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk classification (1) 風險分類 The ERM classifies into internal external risks 企業(yè)風險管理將風險分為內部風險和外部風險。 2022/3/13 85 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk classification (2) 風險分類 Internal Risks include: Hazard + operational risks 內部風險包括： 危害及操作風險 2022/3/13 86