【正文】
Search Reports Q439。07 Worldwide LCD TVShipments Surpass CRTs for First Time。 TV Revenues Reach a Record High, Up 10% to $33B,”2008,WorldWideWeb,[3] DisplaySearch, “DisplaySearch Topical Report Reveals Changing Relationships Among Panel Suppliers and Brands and Their Impacton TV Industry Dynamics”,2008,WorldWideWeb,[4] Fisher, . and . Pry, “A simple substitution model of technological change,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, Vol. 3, pp. 7588, 1971.[5] FOXNews, “Tokyo to Boost Development of OLED Displays”,Retrieved 7/10/08 World Wide Web,2933,379383,[6] Global sources, 2007 World Wide Web, [7] Juergen, G., F. Alexander, and S. Oliver, “Scenario Management: Anapproach to develop future potentials,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change Vol. 59, pp. 111, 1988.[8] Lai, H. H., “The growth of Taiwan IT industry: Holding the new chance of Projector Technology,” TRI Industry Report 8, pp. 79, (In Chinese),2004.[9] Listone, H. A. and M. Turoff。 The Delphi method: techniques and applications. MA: AddisonWesley, 1975.[10] Marchetti, C. and N. Nakicenovic。 The dynamics of energy systems and logistic substitution model, Int. Inst. Appl. Syst. Anal., 1979.[11] Martino, J. P.。 Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, 3rd ed., New York: McGrawHill, 1993.[12] Noriko, S. T., “America iSuppli: When American consumers purchase television, they firstly consider “picture quality,” Nikkei Business Publications,Inc,2008 World Wide Web, [13] Norton, J. A. and F. M. Bass, “A diffusion theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high technology products,” MS, Vol. 33, pp. 10691086, 1987.[14] PIDA, “2000年大型顯示器產(chǎn)業(yè)及技術(shù)調(diào)查”,2000年科技和產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力的計劃,系列00008. 2000.[15] Porter, A. L., T. A. Roper, T. M. Mason, A. Rossini, J. Banks, and B. J. Wiederholt。 Forecasting and Management of Technology, John Wileyamp。 Sons Inc., NY, 1991.[16] Qin, S. S. and Z. K. Zhu, “Analyzing the development of TV market in Digital Converge Media,”IT DataBank Annual Report Services, MIC,2007 World Wide Web,[17] Satoru, O., “DisplaySearch: Why Does the Price of PDP TV down? BP CorporationReport,2007,WorldWideWeb,(In Chinese)[18] Schoemarker, ., “Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking,”Sloan Manage. Rev. pp. 2539, 1995.[19] Versluis, C., “DRAMs, fiber and energy pared with three models of market penetration,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, Vol. 69, , 2002.[20] Wang, M. Y., and W. T. Lan., Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model,Technological Forecasting amp。 Social Change, Vol. 74, pp. 357378,2007.[21] Willian, K. and J. R. Ralston., “Scenarios in technology forecasting”Technology Forecasting Capability Transferal Project Lectures on Technology Forecasting Methodologies, SRI International, 1996.[22] Zhang, C. H., “LCD development trend in 2007, Topology Research Institute (In Chinese),2007,WorldWide Web