【導(dǎo)讀】SalesGrowth. Op.Prof.Margin. Inetaxrate. WorkingCapital. FixedCapital. CostofCapital. Dividends. CapitalGains. Whyisthestockprice(value)thediscountedsumof. thefuturecashflows(dividends)?0?????r. PPdErE???...))(1()())(1()()(1)(332210???????rEdErEdErEdEP. ...))(1()())(1()()(1)(332210???????):. Definition:. s. FreeCashFlow=CashInflow–cashoutflow. CashOutflow=. FixedAssets+?WorkingCapital+Taxes. CashFlowtoEquity=

　　

【正文】 order to approximate the actual market value, we need to assume: ? 20 years of valuecreating growth ? With a spread of 15% 9% ? And a reinvestment rate of 267% (what does this mean?) PRACTICE Approximate your pany’s value using this approach 73 A “serious” valuation process ? Get the story ? Formulate strategy and petitive scenario ? Market share, petitive advantage etc. ? Map into value drivers: ? Identify key parameters, ? Identify stable relationships ? Translate into financial forecasts ? Calculate value: ? Calculate cost of capital ? Calculate terminal value ? Sanity checks and diagnostics: ? Financial ratios, ? Industry parison 74 Example – Starbucks S B U X v a l ua t i on , P amp。 L a s s um pt i on s00 , 10 , 20 , 30 , 40 , 50 , 619992001200320052007200920112013201520172019G r o w t h C G S S G amp。 A E B IT m a r g i nS B U X v a l ua t i on , ba l a nc e s he e t pa r a m e t e r s0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%1999 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2017 20190%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%F i x e d a s s e t s t u r n o v e r W o r k i n g c a p i t a l / s a l e s75 Example – Starbucks S B U X v a l ua t i on , Fo r e c a s t s1 0 . 0 0 02 0 . 0 0 03 0 . 0 0 04 0 . 0 0 05 0 . 0 0 06 0 . 0 0 01999 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2017 2019All except EBIT (USD m)5001 . 0 0 01 . 5 0 02 . 0 0 02 . 5 0 03 . 0 0 03 . 5 0 04 . 0 0 04 . 5 0 05 . 0 0 0EBIT (USD m)T u r n o v e r I n v e s t e d C a p i t a l P u r c h a s e p r i c e o f f i x e d a s s e t s E B I T76 Cost of capital – beta 77 Cost of capital – risk free rate ? 4% per 2 september 78 All together Co st of CapitalRf 4%Bet a 0,94Mark et ris k pr emium 5%Co st of equity 9%Sum of FCFs 2020 2020 Termina l v alue Ex ce ss cas h (mar ke table sec ur iti es ) 214Total Va lue PRACTICE Calculate your pany’s value using the spreadsheet approach 79 Sanity checks – ROIC ? Does this make sense? R O I C0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2018 202080 Sanity Checks – ROIC ? It is due to the depreciation scheme, so probably yes. T h e r o l e o f d e p r e c i a t i o n0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2018R O I C R O I C (p u rch a s e p ri ce )81 Sanity Checks – No. of stores 82 Sanity Checks – No. of stores Sb u x v a l u a ti o n i s th i s r e a s o n a b l e ?1 0 . 0 0 02 0 . 0 0 03 0 . 0 0 04 0 . 0 0 05 0 . 0 0 06 0 . 0 0 07 0 . 0 0 08 0 . 0 0 09 0 . 0 0 019992001200320052007200920112013201520172019N o S t o r e sT u r n o v e r83 Comparable pany valuation ? Valuation based on ratios (value / sales, value / EBIT, PE etc) Performance Measurement and pensation 85 ? Economic Profit (Mckinsey and others) or Economic Value Added (Stern Stewart) ? Definition: ? EVA is the profit the pany generates over and above a pensation for all capital suppliers ? EVA = Noplat Net economic depreciation Charge for the cost of capital Economic Profit / EVA 86 EVA ? EBIT – TaxesU = NOPLAT ? (Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes) ? The charge for the capital used is ? WACC x capital employed ? Idea: ? An accounting measure that takes into account that capital suppliers ought to be pensated 87 EVA ? EVA = NOPLAT – WACC x IC ? It can be rewritten as: (ROIC – WACC) x IC ? This is intuitive: ? For the pany to make ?economic profit? the return the pany makes has to exceed its cost of capital ? EVA depends on the pany?s value drivers 88 Profit Margin IC turnover SGamp。A / Sales CGS / Sales etc. FA . NWC . Inv. . etc Rec. . ROIC x 89 Example Bamp。N Amazon 2020 2020 Sales 5,951 5,264 EBIT 318 270 NOPLAT 223 189 Invested capital Fixed assets 1,314 341 Working capital 264 822 IC w/o cash 1,578 481 Cash 487 1,102 IC w cash 2,065 621 ROIC % % 90 Example Asset management FA Turnover Days39。 Inventory Days39。 Receivables Days39。 Payables 88 84 Market Cap EV Margins Gross Margin % % SGamp。A % % Operating Ine % % EBIT Margin % % 91 EVA and FCF ? ICt = PPEt + WCt ? FCFt = NOPLATt – (ICt – ICt1) ? And EVAt = NOPLATt – r x ICt1 ? Hence: ? EVAt = FCFt + (g – r) x ICt1 ? EVA and NPV are equivalent as valuation measures though (to be seen in capital budgeting) 92 Problems with EVA Year 0 1 2 3 4 Cash flow 100 10 80 80 80 / depreciation 25 25 25 25 NOPLAT 35 55 55 55 Cost of capital (10% of IC) 10 7,5 5 2,5 EVA 45 47,5 50 52,5 93 Problems with EVA (cont.) ? Does it really measure value creation? ? Exercise: 187。 Understand and analyse yearly creation of value: 187。 Define it 187。 Compare it to performance measures: ROE, ROIC, EVA 187。 Draw conclusions 94 Other measures ? (ROIC) ? EPS ? ROE ? FCF ? DCF / Real Options ? CFROI 95 Compensation: Basic Principles ? Dependent on what managers can control: ? Variables must depend on management?s actions ? Independent of what they cannot control ? Benchmarking ? Focus: ? No multiple targets ? If so, at least make them congruent (. no growth and margin targets) 96 Compensation: typical scheme ? Base salary ? Yearly bonus (accounting measures) ? Long Term Scheme: marketbased measures such as: