【導(dǎo)讀】1. Politicsthisweek. May15th2020. Reuters. Reuters. 2. InahugeU-turn

　　

【正文】 ography, perhaps with a Senate constituted by a special formula ensuring that all sects have a say and none can ride roughshod. The Shias led by Hizbullah may emerge as the strongest single group. But if Lebanon is to hold together as a country in more than name, Hizbullah cannot continue to rule a separate state within a bogus state. Geia and Russia Gather round the ge May 15th 2020 From The Economist print edition The outside world can help deter both Russian bullying and Geian voterigging IF YOU have not heard of the Kodori Ge, you may soon. A Geiancontrolled sliver of territory in the breakaway enclave of Abkhazia, it looks nastily like the flashpoint for a new hot war in the Caucasus. Russia, which protects the Abkhaz regime, insists that Geia is planning to use Kodori to attack Abkhazia. That is unlikely. Geia39。s modern but small army is no match for the Russian behemoth. Steep terrain with only one tiny road divides Kodori from the rest of Abkhazia. And starting a war would ruin Geia39。s hopes of joining NATO. A more plausible explanation of Russia39。s propaganda offensive and increase in the numbers of both regular and irregular forces in Abkhazia is not fear of a Geian attack, but plans for the opposite: an attempt to retake the Kodori Ge. This would humiliate, perhaps topple, Geia39。s proWestern president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Russia would see it as giving a firm response to the deplorable precedent of Western recognition of Kosovo39。s independence. If you use your muscle to separate Kosovo from Serbia, the Kremlin would grunt, then just watch what we can do to a wouldbe ally of yours. Tensions are still growing ahead of Geia39。s parliamentary elections on May 21st. A war would splinter Geia39。s fragile democracy, destabilise the whole Caucasus and embolden Russian hawks to cause bother elsewhere. That is trouble worth avoiding. 10 If Russia39。s new president, Dmitry Medvedev (see article), wants to be taken seriously as more than a puppet of his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, he could start by cooling the row with Geia. Menacing the country mocks his talk of the rule of law. Others can also help. Some European Union countries are joining Lithuania39。s hitherto lonely protests on Geia39。s behalf. This week five foreign ministers went to Geia to bemoan Russia39。s knoutrattling. A mission of foreign military and political observers to the Kodori Ge itself would be a useful followup. It would give the lie to Russia39。s claims that Geia is preparing for war. And it could deter Russia from an attack. Killing Geian soldiers is one thing for Russia。 killing officials from EU and NATO countries is another. Geia should change too Meanwhile Geia could help itself by bolstering its democratic credentials. The heavyhanded dispersal of street protests in November and allegations of ballotrigging in January39。s presidential election have sullied its reputation. That helped NATO39。s summit in April decide that putting Geia on a clear track to membership was premature. Geia39。s friends might rally more enthusiastically behind it if the parliamentary elections were not just clean, but seen to be beyond reproach. Mr Saakashvili39。s supporters say that the opposition is intransigent and maybe even outright treacherous. Bits of it may well be. But that is no excuse for dodgy election practices. It is sadly too late to settle some controversies, such as the position of the election mission. But video recordings of the numbers entering polling booths should be prehensive and freely available to help allay suspicions of ballotstuffing. Complaints need to be followed up seriously. Otherwise the impression given is one of arrogance at best, and at worst a willingness to conceal dirty deeds. Outside monitors should offer to look into any plaints that the Geian authorities fail to investigate properly. Demonstratively coupling its prosperity with freedom and legality will win Geia moral high ground, and wider backing, in its war of words with Russia. And it might one day even help win back Abkhazia too. Disasters in China and Myanmar No time to sit back May 15th 2020 From The Economist print edition China has shown up Myanmar39。s generals. But it is not too late for outsiders to help the Burmese Eyevine 11 Get article background IT HAS taken another catastrophe, this one in China, to show the generals who run Myanmar how better to respond to a natural disaster. Ten days after a cyclone struck Myanmar (formerly Burma) on May 2nd, the xenophobic junta there had managed to ensure that aid from abroad was still only trickling in and most of what had arrived was not being distributed to those who needed it. The United Nations39。 estimates for the dead and vulnerable were rising dramatically. It was then that a devastating earthquake struck western China. President Hu Jintao at once mobilised soldiers and other workers in an allout rescue effort. The prime minister, Wen Jiabao, arrived in the region within a few hours, making no attempt to play down this ―severe disaster‖ and saying China would gratefully accept international help (see article). The contrast with Myanmar was telling. So was the contrast with the China of 1976, when an even deadlier earthquake struck the city of Tangshan. The full awfulness of that event—at least 250,000 people died—was not revealed for months, and offers of foreign help were spurned. China39。s rulers are still proud and sometimes prickly, but for reasons good and bad they have changed. They got a nasty shock, for instance, in 2020 when an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS, showed how a virulent new plague, if uncontained, might impose huge costs on a modernising economy. This taught them that burying bad news is not always sensible. A fierce freeze