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10%40% Avg. forced seasonend markdown 0% 10%25% 23 169。 2023 Pearson Education ? 潛在需求不確定性與需求的其他特點(diǎn) : Fisher 哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論 1997 —— 需求不確定產(chǎn)品通常是不成熟的產(chǎn)品 ,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手少 ,邊際效益 高。 —— 需求更加確定時(shí) ,預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)更準(zhǔn)確 。 —— 潛在需求不確定性增加 ,供需平衡難度加大。 —— 潛在需求不確定性高產(chǎn)品 ,積壓和清銷(xiāo)量大。 24 169。 2023 Pearson Education ?Key Point: First step to strategic fit is to understand customers by mapping their demand on the implied uncertainty spectrum. 25 169。 2023 Pearson Education Step 2: Understanding the Supply Chain ? 供應(yīng)鏈主要有兩類(lèi)功能: —— 物理功能:能以最低的成本將原材料加工成零部件、半成品、產(chǎn)品并將它們從供應(yīng)鏈的一個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)運(yùn)到另一個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)。 —— 市場(chǎng)中介功能:能對(duì)市場(chǎng)需求做出迅速反應(yīng),確保以合適的產(chǎn)品在合適的地點(diǎn)和時(shí)間來(lái)滿足顧客的需求 ? 一般意義上的供應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)窃谶@兩個(gè)功能間的權(quán)衡,即反應(yīng)能力與贏利水平之間進(jìn)行權(quán)衡。 26 169。 2023 Pearson Education ?Supply chain responsiveness ability to – respond to wide ranges of quantities demanded – meet short lead times – handle a large variety of products – build highly innovative products – meet a very high service level 27 169。 2023 Pearson Education ?Supply chain efficiency: cost of making and delivering the product to the customer. Increasing responsiveness results in higher costs that lower efficiency. 28 169。 2023 Pearson Education ? 反應(yīng)能力和盈利水平。 ? 反應(yīng)能力 :對(duì)大幅度變動(dòng)的需求量的反應(yīng) ,滿足較短供貨期的要求 ,提供多品種 ,生產(chǎn)具有高度創(chuàng)新性的產(chǎn)品 ,高服務(wù)水平。 ? 反應(yīng)能力強(qiáng)的代價(jià) :生產(chǎn)能力 ,庫(kù)存 ,物流能力 (閑置 )。 29 169。 2023 Pearson Education CostResponsiveness Efficient Frontier (Figure ) High Low Low High Responsiveness Cost 30 169。 2023 Pearson Education ?反應(yīng)能力 盈利水平邊界曲線 成本 低 低 高 高 反應(yīng)能力 31 169。 2023 Pearson Education The Responsiveness Spectrum (Figure ) Integrated steel mill Dell Highly efficient Highly responsive Somewhat efficient Somewhat responsive Hanes apparel Most automotive production 32 169。 2023 Pearson Education 供應(yīng)鏈反應(yīng)能力圖譜 高贏利水平 一定贏利水平 一定的反應(yīng)能力 高反應(yīng)能力 鋼鐵企業(yè):提前數(shù)周或數(shù)月安排生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃 , 缺少變化或彈性 服裝:傳統(tǒng)的生產(chǎn) ——庫(kù)存制造, 生產(chǎn)提前時(shí)間為幾個(gè)星期 多數(shù)汽車(chē)制造商:在 2周內(nèi)送達(dá)多種產(chǎn)品 戴爾公司:個(gè)性化的 PC機(jī) , 數(shù)日內(nèi)供貨 33 169。 2023 Pearson Education ?Key Point: Second step to achieving strategic fit is to map the supply chain on the responsiveness spectrum. 34 169。 2023 Pearson Education Step 3: Achieving Strategic Fit ? Step is to ensure that what the supply chain does well is consistent with target customer’s needs. ? 獲取戰(zhàn)略匹配,即確保供應(yīng)鏈的出色運(yùn)營(yíng)與目標(biāo)顧客的需要協(xié)調(diào)一致。供應(yīng)鏈反應(yīng)能力的高低應(yīng)該與潛在需求不確定性吻合。 35 169。 2023 Pearson Education Finding the Zone of Strategic Fit (Figure ) Implied uncertainty spectrum Responsive supply chain Efficient supply chain Certain demand Uncertain demand Responsiveness spectrum 36 169。 2023 Pearson Education 供應(yīng)鏈的反應(yīng)能力 供應(yīng)鏈的盈利水平 反應(yīng)能力變動(dòng)范圍 確定的需求 不確定的需求 潛在需求不確定性變動(dòng)范圍 面粉 DELL 確保供應(yīng)鏈的出色運(yùn)營(yíng),與目標(biāo)顧客的需求協(xié)調(diào)一致 37 169。 2023 Pearson Education ? All functions in the value chain must support the petitive strategy to achieve strategic fit – Fig. . ? Two extremes: Efficient supply chains (Barilla) and responsive supply chains (Dell) – Table . ? Two key points – there is no right supply chain strategy independent of petitive strategy – there is a right supply chain strategy for a given