【文章內容簡介】 gulatorandsoleoperatoroftelemunications?In1993,announcementwasmadetoseparateoperatingandregulatoryfunctionsalongwiththeestablishmentofa2ndoperatorGreatWall? Establishedin1995toharnessPLA’sradiospectrum?Thepanyundertakes“theCDMAproject”atthedirectionofthegovernmentGreatWall? DuetogovernmentmitmenttoseparatePLAfrommercialactivities,GreatWalldissolvedwithdecisiontotransferCDMAassetstoChinaUnimadeinOctober2022(transferyettobepleted)? 2ndlargestfixedlinework?EstablishedDecember2022?OfferslimitedGSMserviceoverit’srailwayworkPre 1994 Regulator and Operator1994 to 1999Virtual Monopoly1999 To 2022 Deregulation/Breakup2022 and beyond 2nd breakupand future landscapeChinaNet? Establishedinwithinterbackbone?LikelylicensewinnerJitong Jitong? Setupin1994todevelopdatamunicationservice? BegantoofferVoIPservices?LeadingplayerinvoiceoverIPChinaNetGroupChinaRail? ChinaTelebrokenupintoNorthandSouthwithCTNorthmergingwithChinaNetandJitongtobeeChinaNetGroup? ChinaTeleSouthcontinuesoperationasChinaTele?OperatingCDMAlocalloopservicesinseveralcities? ChinaMobileunaffectedbysecondbreakup,survivingproposaltomergeitwithJitong,givenconcernsaboutconsequencesofforcedmergersforpubliclylistedpanies? ChinaUniunaffectedbysecondbreakup,survivingproposaltomergeitwithRail?WhileGreatWallCDMAassettransferhasyettobepleted,UniwillbeefirstmajoroperatorintheworldwithbothCDMAandGSMservices,withlaunchofitsownCDMAworkin2022? Operatorbiddingfor3Glicense,withopennesstowardsadoptingChina’s3Gstandard,TDSCDMA15Source:Literaturesearch。industryinterviewsBefore After CT breakupMOST RECENT BREAKUP OF CHINA TELECOM TO LEAD TO A LANDSCAPE OF 5 OPERATORS COMPETING ACROSS BOTH MOBILE AND FIXEDLicenses Licenses? AnnouncementonNovember26tomergeJitongwithChinaNetandChinaTeleNorthernunit? Competitionwillincreaseasmergedtelegiantsobtainlicensesforprehensiveteleoperations,including– Fixedlinephone– Mobilephone– Interrelatedservices? OriginalplantomergeChinaMobilewithJitongandChinaUniwithChinaRail,metwithstrongdissentfromthecapitalmarketswhosawthisasanaffronttoChinaMobileandChinaUni’sgovernanceaspubliclyheldpanies? Mobile? Mobile? Fixed? Mobile(GSMR)? Fixed? Fixed? Fixed? FixedGROUPChina Tele NorthChina Tele South? Mobile? Fixed? Mobile? Fixed? Mobile? Fixed? Mobile? FixedChina Rail China Rail? Mobile? FixedHavelicense16PROFILES OF CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE PLAYERSChina assets Mobile strategy Current partnershipsLicense prospects*Stilltobedecided? ~96millionmobilesubscribers? ~30millionmobilesubscribers?Servicescoveringover180cities? Largestnationalteleworkcovering2,000cities?Firstoperatortointroduceinteraccesscards,andannouncedonlineshoppingcardtobelaunchedin2022? Interbackbonecovering17majorcities?StartedIPphoneservicesinJanuary2022? 2ndlargestworkinChina。coveringallmajorcities(500cities)? Betechnologyleader,thuseagertoenter3G?Focusonhighendcustomers?TrialingGPRSwith7vendors?StronglysupportingWAP? Shiftingattitudesontechnology,nowfirstplayertocoverbothGSMandCDMA?FocusingattentionondevelopingCDMAworks?TrialingGPRSwith4vendors? Competeonserviceofferingwithexistingoperators,leveraginggovernmentandsupplierexpertise?ActivewithWLLandlocalmobility?Gostraightto3Gifpossible? Obtainmobilelicenseasquickaspossibleregardlessoftechnologystandard?RolloutwirelessdataservicesevenifitmeanstakingGSM/GPRSfirst?MayfocusinitiallyonGZ,BJ,SH? Likelyintendsfollowing2tierstructure– Obtain3Glicensetotargethighendusers– Use2GPHStotargetvoicesubscribers? Vodafone?HP? Hutchison?KDDI?SKTele?Telstra? ATamp。T?JapanTele?BritishTele? NewsCorporation?GoldmanSachs?SingTel? NoneExistingExistingCurrent playersChina MobileChina UniLikely future playersChina TeleChina NetChina Rail*Governmentlikelytogrant2licenses。undecidedwhen,andwhattype。nonetobeawardedin2022Source:PiperJaffrey。MerrillLynch。Literaturesearch 17OTHER PLAYERS UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN MOBILE LICENSESSource:GoldmanSachs。EIUPyramid。McKinseyanalysisCentury MobileJitongForeign JV EntrantsNew telcosWho they are Basis for entry Obstacles? Consortiumof10enterpriseswhohavejoinedtogethertotrytosetupmobileenterprise? Setupin1994todevelopdatamunicationservices? PotentialJVsinvolvingforeignpanies? Newplayersexpandingintotele? Somegovernmentcontacts? OriginallyconsideredtakeoverofGreatWall’sassets? Owns70%ofVoIPmarket? Governmenthasindicateddesiretoseemultipleoperationswithmultipleserviceofferings? GovernmentmaybepressuredtoshowmarketprogressandWTObenefits? Foreignoperatorsandentitieseagertoinvest? Desiretoenterwirelessgivenopportunitiesandconvergenceoftechnologies? GreatWallassetsmovedtoChinaUni? Nocurrentdiscussionregardingmobileservicesobserved? Lowcapabilitytoutilizemobilespectrumifallocated? WTOagreementsdonotrequirethatnewtelelicensesbe