中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)：20xx_年-良性循環(huán)的開始上調(diào)目標(biāo)價(jià)強(qiáng)力買入萬(wàn)科a(摘要)(編輯修改稿)
2025-02-13 10:09 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 Exhibit 2 and 3 summarizes our base, bull and bearcase price and basecase volume assumptions for our coverage universe. Basecase: We expect a 510% price increase in 1H13, but then limited or no growth in 2H13, based on our expectation of possible government intervention to control the pace of price appreciation. Bullcase: Property prices to increase by 1520% in 2H13, assuming no government intervention to stop price appreciation. Bearcase: Property prices to return to 1H12 tough levels, if the government takes preemptive and harsh policy action to eliminate any price appreciation possibilities. Exhibit 2: Our base, bull and bearcase price assumption for our coverage Exhibit 3: Our basecase volume assumption for our coverage universe (mn sqm) 200 Basecase Bullcase Bearcase 200 120 9%yoy 180 180 162 167 167 100 +25%yoy 160 140 150 138 151 80 60 138 120 40 100 100 Beginning End09 09 End10 End11 Mid12 End12 Mid13E End13E 20 0 2022 2022E 2022E Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Raising estimates, but still below Consensus Our 2022E2022E underlying profit estimates are 2%/5%/11% below consensus, reflecting our more conservative margin estimates We raise our underlying profit estimates by an average of 0%, 5% and 11% in 2022E2022E after factoring in our new assumptions for property price, updates in the development pipeline and volume assumptions. Our new underlying EPS forecasts for 2022E/2022E are 5%/11% below Bloomberg/Wind consensus on our lower sales and margin estimates. Accordingly, we raise our underlying EPS estimates by the same magnitude (see Exhibit 5). 高華證券投資研究 ? ? ? 6 2022 年 12 月 4 日 Exhibit 4: We raise our 2022E2022E underlying profit forecasts by 0%/5%/11% on average 中國(guó)：房地產(chǎn) Reporting Net profit forecast (mn) Underlying profit forecast (mn) Currency New Old Change (%) New Old Change (%) 11A 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 11A 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E Offshore listed Agile COGO COLI CRL Country Garden Evergrande Franshion Greentown Ramp。F KWG Longfor Poly Property (H) Shimao Shui On Land SinoOcean SOHO Sunac Yanlord (RMB) 4,105 4,469 5,052 5,545 (HK$) 1,815 2,332 2,675 3,003 (HK$) 15,025 17,479 14,706 15,919 (HK$) 8,070 9,006 8,684 10,907 (RMB) 5,813 6,361 7,705 8,008 (RMB) 11,382 10,333 9,025 10,170 (HK$) 2,027 2,994 2,452 2,616 (RMB) 2,575 4,869 5,441 5,149 (RMB) 4,842 4,740 4,085 4,002 (RMB) 2,103 2,070 2,132 2,273 (RMB) 6,328 6,212 6,519 7,864 (HK$) 2,777 2,409 2,372 2,750 (RMB) 5,723 6,366 5,405 5,728 (RMB) 3,428 1,869 1,298 1,385 (RMB) 1,980 2,586 2,695 2,604 (RMB) 3,892 3,545 3,250 2,163 (RMB) 2,356 1,976 2,259 2,944 (RMB) 1,482 1,573 1,070 1,136 4,447 2,331 17,491 9,307 6,331 10,568 2,994 4,869 4,535 2,069 6,167 2,417 6,361 1,917 2,552 3,589 1,969 1,573 4,717 2,531 14,487 8,187 7,233 8,572 2,257 5,381 4,011 2,043 6,549 2,380 5,051 1,186 2,420 3,256 2,100 983 5,153 2,709 14,968 10,087 7,494 9,681 2,322 5,031 3,849 2,077 7,207 2,631 5,426 1,228 2,429 2,108 2,720 1,029 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 7 6 2 6 7 5 9 1 2 4 0 0 7 9 11 0 8 9 8 11 6 8 7 5 13 2 4 9 9 5 6 13 7 3 8 10 3,900 1,245 13,015 5,617 5,798 8,610 1,329 2,589 4,516 1,859 4,503 1,756 4,303 1,572 1,595 1,422 1,820 782 4,436 2,191 15,455 6,707 6,305 8,470 1,976 4,869 4,309 1,938 5,751 2,167 5,336 1,059 2,586 3,166 2,487 1,218 5,052 2,675 14,706 8,684 7,705 9,025 2,452 5,441 4,085 2,132 6,519 2,372 5,405 1,298 2,695 3,250 2,986 1,070 5,545 3,003 15,919 10,907 8,008 10,170 2,616 5,149 4,002 2,273 7,864 2,750 5,728 1,385 2,604 2,163 3,510 1,136 4,414 2,190 15,467 7,008 6,276 8,706 1,976 4,869 4,104 1,938 5,707 2,175 5,331 1,107 2,552 3,209 2,481 1,218 4,717 2,531 14,487 8,187 7,233 8,572 2,257 5,381 4,011 2,043 6,549 2,380 5,051 1,186 2,420 3,256 2,827 982 5,153 2,709 14,968 10,087 7,494 . 9,681 2,322 5,031 3,849 2,077 7,207 2,631 5,426 1,228 2,429 2,108 3,287 1,029 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 7 6 2 6 7 5 9 1 2 4 0 0 7 9 11 0 6 9 8 11 6 8 7 5 13 2 4 9 9 5 6 13 7 3 7 10 Perennial EHouse (S $) (US$) 26 9 44 4 39 41 40 55 44 16 39 47 40 62 0 . 0 13 0 12 26 9 44 4 39 41 40 55 44 16 39 47 40 62 0 . 0 13 0 12 Offshore average (0) 5 7 (0) 5 7 Onshore listed BCD CMP Gemdale OCT Poly A Risesun SMC Vanke A Vanke B Zhongnan (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) 1,877 2,013 2,377 2,803 2,592 3,237 4,294 5,479 3,017 3,272 3,611 4,221 3,177 3,646 4,330 4,874 6,531 8,405 10,374 12,774 1,532 2,050 2,493 2,909 1,184 1,313 1,426 1,588 9,625 13,192 15,791 18,040 9,625 13,192 15,791 18,040 932 1,227 1,650 2,189 2,137 3,228 3,260 3,214 8,
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