宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)consumption(編輯修改稿)
2024-10-06 15:02 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 ’s optimal C1 is less than Y1. C1 C2 Y1 slide 26 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Consumer optimization when the borrowing constraint is binding The optimal choice is at point D. But since the consumer cannot borrow, the best he can do is point E. C1 C2 Y1 D E slide 27 CHAPTER 16 Consumption 在借貸約束下是增加了還是減少了財(cái)政政策對(duì)總需求的影響？ ? 暫時(shí)減稅 ?暫時(shí)減稅意味著現(xiàn)期的可分配收入增加。 ?有借貸約束的消費(fèi)增量等于減稅量。 ?財(cái)政政策在有借貸約束時(shí)更有力。 ? 宣布未來減稅 ?意味著未來時(shí)期的可分配收入增加。 ?有借貸約束的無法增加現(xiàn)期消費(fèi) ?財(cái)政政策在有沒有借貸約束時(shí)更有力。 slide 28 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The LifeCycle Hypothesis ? due to Franco Modigliani (1950s) ? Fisher’s model says that consumption depends on lifetime ine, 人們?cè)噲D獲得平穩(wěn)消費(fèi)。 ? The LCH says that ine varies systematically over the phases of the consumer’s “l(fā)ife cycle,” and saving allows the consumer to achieve smooth consumption. slide 29 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The LifeCycle Hypothesis ? The basic model: W = initial wealth Y = annual ine until retirement (assumed constant) R = number of years until retirement T = lifetime in years ? Assumptions: ? zero real interest rate (for simplicity) ? consumptionsmoothing is optimal slide 30 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The LifeCycle Hypothesis ?一生資源 Lifetime resources = W + RY ? To achieve smooth consumption, consumer divides her resources equally over time: C = (W + RY )/T , or C = aW + bY where a = (1/T ) is the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth 財(cái)富的邊際消費(fèi)傾向 b = (R/T ) is the marginal propensity to consume out of ine收入的邊際消費(fèi)傾向 slide 31 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Implications of the LifeCycle Hypothesis The LCH can solve the consumption puzzle: ? The lifecycle consumption function implies APC = C/Y = a(W/Y ) + b ?不同家庭的收入變化比財(cái)富變化更頻繁，高收入家庭比低收入家庭的 APC更低。 Across households, ine varies more than wealth, so highine households should have a lower APC than lowine households. ?在長(zhǎng)期里，總財(cái)富和收入同時(shí)增長(zhǎng)， APC穩(wěn)定。Over time, aggregate wealth and ine grow together, causing APC to remain stable. slide 32 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Implications of the LifeCycle Hypothesis The LCH implies that saving varies systematically over a person’s lifetime. Saving Dissaving Retirement begins End of life Consumption Ine $ Wealth slide 33 CHAPTER 16 Consumption 老年人的消費(fèi)和儲(chǔ)蓄 ? 生命周期理論表明，老年人應(yīng)該有負(fù)儲(chǔ)蓄。但是實(shí)際上，老年的負(fù)儲(chǔ)蓄并沒有達(dá)到模型預(yù)期的成都 ?預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄 ——壽命長(zhǎng)，生病的可能性大。 ?遺產(chǎn)動(dòng)機(jī) ? 中國(guó)人口紅利和中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率， 20年以后，中國(guó)的儲(chǔ)蓄率一定會(huì)下降。 slide 34 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Permanent Ine Hypothesis ? due to Milton Friedman (1957) ? Y = Y P + Y T where Y = current ine Y P = permanent ine average ine, which people expect to persist into the future Y T = transitory ine temporary deviations from average ine slide 35 CHAPTER 16 Consumption The Permanent Ine Hypo
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