宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)consumption-資料下載頁
2025-08-22 15:02本頁面
【導(dǎo)讀】在本章，你將學(xué)到以下內(nèi)容…有更高收入的家庭:. 其收入的大部分被儲(chǔ)蓄起來,收入和消費(fèi)之間有很強(qiáng)的聯(lián)系Verystrong. 這一預(yù)測(cè)并不是真實(shí)的:. 當(dāng)收入上升，APC沒有下降，并且C和收入以。相同速度在增長。SimonKuzs表明C/Y在長時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)。許多關(guān)于消費(fèi)理論工作的基礎(chǔ).假定消費(fèi)者是forward-looking并且選擇當(dāng)期和未。來時(shí)期的消費(fèi)來最大化終生效用。為當(dāng)期和未來消費(fèi)提供所有資源的衡量尺度。消費(fèi)者同等快樂。
【正文】 not saving enough for retirement. ? Laibson: The “pull of instant gratification” explains why people don’t save as much as a perfectly rational lifetime utility maximizer would 來安排儲(chǔ)蓄。 slide 44 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Two questions and time inconsistency前后不一致 1. Would you prefer (A) a candy today, or (B) two candies tomorrow? 2. Would you prefer (A) a candy in 100 days, or (B) two candies in 101 days? In studies, most people answered (A) to 1 and (B) to 2. A person confronted with question 2 may choose (B). But in 100 days, when confronted with question 1, the pull of instant gratification may induce her to change her answer to (A). slide 45 CHAPTER 16 Consumption Summing up ? Keynes: 消費(fèi)主要取決于當(dāng)期的收入。consumption depends primarily on current ine. ? Recent work: consumption also depends on ?預(yù)期未來收入 expected future ine ?財(cái)富 wealth ?利息率 interest rates ? 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家仍然在爭(zhēng)論這些因素的重要性 Economists disagree over the relative importance of these factors, borrowing constraints, and psychological factors. Chapter Summary 1. Keynesian consumption theory ? Keynes’ conjectures ? MPC is between 0 and 1 ? APC falls as ine rises ? current ine is the main determinant of current consumption ? Empirical studies ? in household data amp。 short time series: confirmation of Keynes’ conjectures ? in longtime series data: APC does not fall as ine rises CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 46 Chapter Summary 2. Fisher’s theory of intertemporal choice ? Consumer chooses current amp。 future consumption to maximize lifetime satisfaction of subject to an intertemporal budget constraint. ? Current consumption depends on lifetime ine, not current ine, provided consumer can borrow amp。 save. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 47 Chapter Summary 3. Modigliani’s lifecycle hypothesis ? Ine varies systematically over a lifetime. ? Consumers use saving amp。 borrowing to smooth consumption. ? Consumption depends on ine amp。 wealth. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 48 Chapter Summary 4. Friedman’s permanentine hypothesis ? Consumption depends mainly on permanent ine. ? Consumers use saving amp。 borrowing to smooth consumption in the face of transitory fluctuations in ine. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 49 Chapter Summary 5. Hall’s randomwalk hypothesis ? Combines PIH with rational expectations. ? Main result: changes in consumption are unpredictable, occur only in response to unanticipated changes in expected permanent ine. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 50 Chapter Summary 6. Laibson and the pull of instant gratification ? Uses psychology to understand consumer behavior. ? The desire for instant gratification causes people to save less than they rationally know they should. CHAPTER 16 Consumption slide 51
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