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【正文】 remost(最重要的 ) problems. ? Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10 percent to 4 percent), but at the cost of high employment (about 10 percent in 1983). Figure 11 The Volcker Disinflation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1980 1981 1982 1984 1986 1985 1979 A 1983 B 1987 C Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Greenspan Era ? Alan Greenspan’s term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock. ? In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply. ? This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment. Figure 12 The Greenspan Era 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1984 1991 1985 1992 1986 1993 1994 1988 1987 1995 1996 2022 1998 1999 2022 2022 1989 1990 1997 Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Greenspan Era ? Fluctuations in inflation and unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Fed’s actions. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Ben Bernanke’s challenges ? Aggregate demand shocks: ? Subprime mortgage crisis, falling housing prices, widespread foreclosures, financial sector troubles. ? Aggregate supply shocks: ? Rising prices of food/agricultural modities, ., Corn per bushel: $ in 202206, $ in 5/2022 ? Rising oil prices Oil per barrel: $35 in 2/2022, $134 in 6/2022 ? From 6/2022 to 6/2022, ? unemployment rose from % to % ? CPI inflation rose from % to % Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The Phillips curve describes a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment. ? By expanding aggregate demand, policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with higher inflation and lower unemployment. ? By contracting aggregate demand, policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with lower inflation and higher unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment described by the Phillips curve holds only in the short run. ? The longrun Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The shortrun Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply. ? An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? When the Fed contracts growth in the money supply to reduce inflation, it moves the economy along the shortrun Phillips curve. ? This results in temporarily high unemployment. ? The cost of disinflation depends on how quickly expectations of inflation fall
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