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【正文】 1976 1978 1979 1980 1973 1974 1977 Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION ? To reduce inflation, the Fed has to pursue contractionary(緊縮的 ) moary policy. ? When the Fed slows the rate of money growth, it contracts aggregate demand. ? This reduces the quantity of goods and services that firms produce. ? This leads to a rise in unemployment. Figure 10 Disinflationary Moary Policy in the Short Run and the Long Run Unemployment Rate 0 Natural rate of unemployment Inflation Rate Longrun Phillips curve Shortrun Phillips curve with high expected inflation Shortrun Phillips curve with low expected inflation 1. Contractionary policy moves the economy down along the shortrun Phillips curve . . . 2. . . . but in the long run, expected inflation falls, and the shortrun Phillips curve shifts to the left. B C A Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION ? To reduce inflation, an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output. ? When the Fed bats inflation, the economy moves down the shortrun Phillips curve. ? The economy experiences lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrificeratio could be much smaller than estimated. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Ben Bernanke’s challenges ? Aggregate demand shocks: ? Subprime mortgage crisis, falling housing prices, widespread foreclosures, financial sector troubles. ? Aggregate supply shocks: ? Rising prices of food/agricultural modities, ., Corn per bushel: $ in 202206, $ in 5/2022 ? Rising oil prices Oil per barrel: $35 in 2/2022, $134 in 6/2022 ? From 6/2022 to 6/2022, ? unemployment rose from % to % ? CPI inflation rose from % to % Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment described by the Phillips curve holds only in the short run. ? The longrun Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? When the Fed contracts growth in the money supply to reduce inflation, it moves the economy along the shortrun Phillips curve. ? This results in temporarily high unemployment. ? The cost of disinflation depends on how quickly expectations of inflation fall
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