【文章內容簡介】 y and statistically. The paper examines the information basis of characterizing individuals and offers alternatives motivated by welfare and decision theories. The proposed method helps place propensity scores and other matching proposals in context and reveals their advantages and disadvantages. We do not find the implied theoretical assumptions underlying propensity scores to be attractive or robust. Our proposal does not solve the matching problem, but provides some helpful markers and interpretations which reveal the arbitrariness of specific solutions. A second contribution of the paper is to propose Information Theory methods for optimal matching based on entire distributions, rather than a few moments. The distribution based decision making is consistently adopted throughout the paper. 摘要： 本文檢驗了利用實驗與其他對個體及效果評估的基礎。為了匹配的目的，我們還檢驗了個體的多重性格問題，包括理論和統(tǒng)計應用。本文檢驗了個性化個體的信息依據(jù)并提供了由福利和決策理論延伸的其它選擇。本文提出的方法有助于在處理傾向得分和其它匹配問題，并揭示它們的優(yōu)點和缺點。我們沒發(fā)現(xiàn)處理傾向得分理論中具備穩(wěn)健的假設。我們的方法并不解決匹配問題，但提供了一些揭示特殊解決方式任意性的幫助和解釋。本文的另一個貢獻是提出了基于整體分布而不是一些矩的最優(yōu)匹配的信息理論方法。本文一貫以考慮了整體分布的決策方法作為分析基礎。 （ 余洪 譯 ） [3] Career Progression and Formal versus OntheJob Training 事業(yè)成長、離崗與在崗培訓 J. Adda, University College London and IFS, UK C. Dustmann, University College London and IFS, UK Costas Meghir, University College London, UK (英國倫敦大學學院， Econometrica 前聯(lián)合主編 ) J. M. Robin。 University of Paris 1, France, University College London and IFS, UK Abstract: We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firmworker matches, as well as experience and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and wages from the end of statutory schooling. We use the model to evaluate the lifecycle return to apprenticeship training and find that on average the costs outweigh the benefits。 however for those who choose to train the returns are positive. We then use our model to consider the longterm lifecycle effects of two reforms: One is the introduction of an Earned Ine Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realised matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications. 摘要： 我們開發(fā)了一個有關培訓選擇、就業(yè)以及工資增長的動態(tài)離散選擇模型。我們在模型中允許工人在不同工作中轉換，同時工人工資取決于廠商與工人的匹配、工人的工作經(jīng)驗、在本崗位時間長短和對尋找工作是一個需要耗時的過程的考慮。為了測算這個模型，我們使用了一個大型的行政面板數(shù)據(jù)庫。這個數(shù)據(jù)庫包含了個人從法定就學年齡之后的勞動力市場各種狀態(tài)變化信息、在不同廠商之間的轉換 信息，以及工資信息。利用這個模型，我們評估了學徒培訓對個人的一生收入的回報率，并發(fā)現(xiàn)平均來說入不敷出，但對那些選擇培訓的個人培訓的匯報率是正的。接著，我們用這個模型考慮兩個改革對個人一生收入的長期影響：一個是在德國引入的 收入減免退稅 (Earned Ine Tax Credit)，另一個是失業(yè)保險改革。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)兩個改革都對個人的培訓選擇以及實現(xiàn)的廠商與工人的匹配的價值有重要影響，從而驗證考慮這類長期影響的重要性。 Section 4A (English) Applied Econometrics (II) [1] Generalized ResidualBased Diagnostic Testing for Duration Models with Censoring 設定檢驗與持續(xù)時間模型 Jing Liu, Cornell University, USA Yongmiao Hong (洪永淼 ), Cornell University, USA and Xiamen University, China (美國康奈爾大學，廈門大學王亞南經(jīng)濟研究院院長 ，廈門大學經(jīng)濟學院經(jīng)濟學系主任 ) [2] Evaluating the Impacts of Washington State Repeated Job Search Services on the Earnings of Primeage Female TANF Recipients 華盛頓州重復工作搜尋服務政策對接受 TANF 的中青年女性收入影響的評估 Cheng Hsiao (蕭政 ), University of Southern California, USA and Xiamen University, China (美國南加州大學， 廈門大學王亞南經(jīng)濟研究院， Journal of Econometrics 主編 ) Yan Shen, Peking University, China Boqing Wang, Department of Social and Health Services, USA Greg Weeks, Employment Security Department, USA Abstract: This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and other personal characteristics affect the quarterly earnings of the primeage female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a joint dependent framework for the probability of employment and potential earnings or hours or hourly wage rates to facilitate the investigation of the issues of joint determination of employment and potential earnings and to allow for factors to have different impacts on employment status and on quarterly earnings. We have also suggested formulae to pute the dynamic impact of JSS on duration and earnings. Both the maximum likelihood (ML) and semiparametric estimates are provided. We find that the results are sensitive to the choice of models and estimation methods. For a randomly assigned individual, the first, second and the three or more JSS raised the shortrun and longrun earnings by (5%, 0%, 0%) and (1%, 0%, 0%), respectively, based on the MLE and by (%, %, %) and (%, %, %), respectively based on the semiparametric Tobit model. We have also conducted specification analysis. The results appear to favor semiparametric Type II Tobit model estimates. 摘要： 本文使用非均衡面板數(shù)據(jù)模型來評估華盛頓州的重復的工作搜尋服務（ JSS）和其他個人特征如何影響初期女性社會福利接受者的季度收入。我們提出了一個聯(lián)合依賴分析框架分析就業(yè)和潛在工資（或者工作時間或 小時工資）的概率。這樣做一方面便于研究就業(yè)和潛在工資的聯(lián)合決定因素，另一方面也考慮到各種因素對就業(yè)狀況和季度收入有多種不同的影響。在此基礎上我們也給出了計量 JSS 對持續(xù)期和收入的動態(tài)影響的公式。在文中我們同時進行了極大似然估計（ ML）和半?yún)?shù)估計，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)估計結果與計量模型和估計方法的選擇密切相關。根據(jù)極大似然估計（ MLE） ,對于一個隨機登記的個人來說，第一次 、 第二次 、第三次（或者更多）的工作搜尋服務分別提高了其短期和長期收入的（ 5%,0%,0%） 和（ 1%,0%,0%） 。而根據(jù)半?yún)?shù) Tobit 模型相應的結果 分別是 (%, %, %) 和 (%, %, %)。我們進行了詳細的分析，結果傾向于接受半?yún)?shù)類型－Ⅱ的 Tobit估計模型。 （ 李云森 譯 ） [3] The Hausman Test for Correlated Effects in Panel Data Models under Misspecification (面板數(shù)據(jù)模型誤設情形下相關性效應的 Hausman 檢驗 ) Raymond O39。Brien, University of Southampton, UK (英國南安普敦大學 ) Eleonora Patacchini, University of Rome, La Sapienza Abstract: We investigate the performance under misspecification of the DurbinWuHausman test for correlated effects with panel data. Consideration of size leads to a general proposition for quadratic forms in normal variate which gives conditions for a class of test statistics, which are chisquare under correct s