【正文】 R 方 從決定系數(shù)（ R 方）知，三次曲線效果最好（因為 2R 值最大），故選用三次曲線模型對我國轎車市場需求量進行預(yù)測。這與實際相符合，因此，利用三次曲線模型對我國轎車市場需求量的研究具有一定的合理性。 2022 年起，城鎮(zhèn)住戶調(diào)查對象由原來的城市市區(qū)和縣城關(guān)鎮(zhèn)的非農(nóng)業(yè)居民家庭改為居住在城鎮(zhèn)區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)的常住戶。謹向所有審評老師表示崇高的敬意和衷心的感謝 ! 最后，向所有支持、幫助、鼓勵和關(guān)心過我的老師、同學(xué)、朋友以及家人致以衷心的感謝和崇高的敬意。t just about sharing art with nomadic families but also about gaining inspiration for the music and dance. Ulan Muqir literally translates as red burgeon, and today39。s to e and recapping the key points. This device, not used in the original, is culturally understandable but artistically mediocre. What puzzles me is the two new songs for the 統(tǒng)計學(xué) 2022 屆本科畢業(yè)論文 20 opening and end credits. They were written in English, but sung by Chinese with an unfortable accent. They were obviously designed to appeal to an Englishspeaking base, but do not jibe with the Chinese dialogue. Speaking of the dialogue, the English translation, picked apart by some Chinese, is too literal for my taste. I can imagine a typical American hit by a flurry of royal ranks, addresses and greetings, even multiple names and titles for the same person. The first half hour must be a swamp to wade through, very much like my experience of getting through a Tolstoy tome with its endless inflections of names transliterated into lengthy Chinese. I see the choice of verbatim translation as an effort for conveying exotica. It is fairly petent, with no error that I could detect, but fails to rise above words or capture the essence of the language. A cultural product usually crosses over to a foreign territory first by an emphasis on the monalities. But whether inside or outside China, the temptation to sell it for the differences is just too great. Sure, the sumptuous sets and costumes are a big attraction, but the narrative technique has bee－ how shall I put it?－ a bit anglicized, which is necessary for cultural export. Judging by the responses, this legend, which, contrary to the claim of the English trailer, is totally fictitious, has departed from China but not yet landed on American shores. I am a big fan of Ralph Waldo Emerson39。 names and figuring out what to do with them for the brief time each week that I stand in front of them. I do not consider the challenges of learning to live here part of a purposeful life. I consider those issues existential in nature. One of the problems with my life in America was that I felt it had no purpose. I went to work every day and even did what I could to make my colleagues39。ve not yet read it, I strongly encourage you to do so. In this essay, the venerable Emerson talks about eschewing the trappings of society and finding one39。s villages and entertain nomadic families, but their fame has spread around the world. On May 16 and 17, nearly 100 singers and dancers from the troupe performed at Beijing39。 統(tǒng)計學(xué) 2022 屆本科畢業(yè)論文 19 為你提供優(yōu)秀的畢業(yè)論文參考資料，請您刪除以下內(nèi)容， O(∩ _∩ )O 謝謝?。?！ A large group of tea merchants on camels and horses from Northwest China39。 不僅使我樹立了遠大的學(xué)術(shù)目標、掌握了基本 的研究方法，還使我明白了許多待人接物與人處事的道路，更讓我倍感深受的是不辭辛苦為銅仁學(xué)院默默付出的老師們的敬業(yè)精神。 模型預(yù)測 根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計年鑒收集的轎車銷售數(shù)據(jù)，運用 SPSS 軟件對 2022～ 2020 年我國轎車市場需求量進行預(yù)測，通過 SPSS 軟件輸出結(jié)果得到 2022～ 2020 年我國轎車市場需求量的預(yù)測值如下表： 表 2022～ 2020 年的預(yù)測值 指標 時間 年次 t 轎車銷售量（萬輛） 2022 1 2022 2 2022 3 2022 4 2022 5 2020 6 9. 模型評價 本文對相關(guān)汽車工業(yè)發(fā)展的因素進行了充分分析和研究后，主要考慮利用灰色預(yù)測軟件和 SPSS 軟件進行預(yù)測。 所以 2022～ 2022 年轎車市場需求量隨時間變化的回歸模型為： 32 xxxy ???? 統(tǒng)計學(xué) 2022 屆本科畢業(yè)論文 12 檢驗 給定顯著性水平為 ?? 的條件下，由表 知 F =，查附錄五有)8,3(FF ?? ，顯著性概率 P =，所以 轎車市場需求量隨時間變化 存在三次關(guān)系。 表 2022~2022 年我國 轎車需求量 相關(guān)的 數(shù)據(jù) 指標 時間 (年） GDP (億元 ) 城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入（元） 年底儲蓄余額 （億元） 轎車需求量（萬輛） 2022 204 2022 2022 10493 296 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 408903 2022 2022 534123 399551 2022 統(tǒng)計學(xué) 2022 屆本科畢業(yè)論文 9 2022 28844 —— 數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局；表注： 見附錄二 運用 SPSS 對其相關(guān)性進行判斷。公車的需求主要受有關(guān)國家政策和財政狀況的影響，與居民收入關(guān)系不大；家庭轎車的需求受收入、價格的影響最大。其計算公式如下： 一次指數(shù)平滑值： )1( 1)1( )1( ???? ttt SyS ?? 二次指數(shù)平滑值： )2( 1)1()2( )1( ???? ttt SSS ?? 三次指數(shù)平滑值： )3( 1)2()3( )1( ???? ttt SSS ?? 預(yù)測模型為： 2? cKbKaT Kt ???? 公式中 : )3()2()1( ttt SSS 、 分別為 t 期一次、二次、三次指數(shù)平滑值； ? 為權(quán)系數(shù)； ty 為實際值； 統(tǒng)計學(xué) 2022 屆本科畢業(yè)論文 6 )3( 1)2( 1)1( 1 ??? ttt SSS 、 為 1?t 期一次、二次、三次指數(shù)平滑值； KtT? 為 Kt? 期預(yù)測值； K 為 t 期到預(yù)測期的間隔期數(shù)； dcba 、 為平滑系數(shù)； cba 、 可由以下公式求得： (1 ) ( 2 )2 tta S S?? ])34()45(2)56[()1(2 )3()2()1(2 ttt SSSb ????? ??????? ]2[)1(2 )3()2()1(2 ttt SSSc ???? ?? 灰色預(yù)測模型 一般預(yù)測模型是因素的模型，而各因素之間總存在著某種直接或間接的聯(lián)系。 （ 2）顯著性檢驗 Pearson(皮爾遜 )相關(guān)系數(shù)的檢驗的原假設(shè)是總體相關(guān)系數(shù) R =0，即相關(guān)系數(shù)不顯著，在原假設(shè)為真的條件下，與樣本相關(guān)系數(shù) r 有關(guān)的 t 統(tǒng)計量服從自由度為 (n2)的 T分布： 221ntr r?? ? SPSS 會自動計算 T 檢驗統(tǒng)計量的觀測值和相應(yīng)的相伴概率 P 值， P 接受原假設(shè)，P 拒絕原假設(shè)。分別運用 SPSS 和調(diào)用 GM 預(yù)測軟件（即灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測軟件）對所擬合模型進行求解、檢驗，繪制相應(yīng)的圖形；并根據(jù)相應(yīng)回歸分析分別對 2022～ 2020 年我國轎車市場需求量進行預(yù)測，綜合比較，得出未來幾年我國轎車市場需求量的預(yù)測值。 Using time series prediction method and call GM prediction software (that is, the grey system prediction software) to forecast demand for cars in the future market in China. A variety of model is analyzed, according to a variety of goodness of fit of the model, it USES the best goodnessoffit, draw the corresponding curve model three times. Based on data from 2022 to 2022 in 2022 ~ 2020 car demand forecast, as well as relevant industries and enterprises promote the development of car market to provide the reference. Key words: time series prediction。 學(xué) 號： 2022041163 本 科 畢 業(yè) 論 文 我國轎車市場需求量預(yù)測分析 院 別： 數(shù)學(xué)科學(xué)學(xué)院 學(xué) 科： 理 學(xué) 專 業(yè)： 統(tǒng)計學(xué) 指導(dǎo)教師： 貴州 ● 銅仁 2022 年 6 月 TONGREN UNIVERSITY 目 錄 摘 要 ..................................................................................................