【正文】 points. This device, not used in the original, is culturally understandable but artistically mediocre. What puzzles me is the two new songs for the 統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué) 2022 屆本科畢業(yè)論文 20 opening and end credits. They were written in English, but sung by Chinese with an unfortable accent. They were obviously designed to appeal to an Englishspeaking base, but do not jibe with the Chinese dialogue. Speaking of the dialogue, the English translation, picked apart by some Chinese, is too literal for my taste. I can imagine a typical American hit by a flurry of royal ranks, addresses and greetings, even multiple names and titles for the same person. The first half hour must be a swamp to wade through, very much like my experience of getting through a Tolstoy tome with its endless inflections of names transliterated into lengthy Chinese. I see the choice of verbatim translation as an effort for conveying exotica. It is fairly petent, with no error that I could detect, but fails to rise above words or capture the essence of the language. A cultural product usually crosses over to a foreign territory first by an emphasis on the monalities. But whether inside or outside China, the temptation to sell it for the differences is just too great. Sure, the sumptuous sets and costumes are a big attraction, but the narrative technique has bee－ how shall I put it?－ a bit anglicized, which is necessary for cultural export. Judging by the responses, this legend, which, contrary to the claim of the English trailer, is totally fictitious, has departed from China but not yet landed on American shores. I am a big fan of Ralph Waldo Emerson39。謹(jǐn)向所有審評(píng)老師表示崇高的敬意和衷心的感謝 ! 最后，向所有支持、幫助、鼓勵(lì)和關(guān)心過我的老師、同學(xué)、朋友以及家人致以衷心的感謝和崇高的敬意。這與實(shí)際相符合，因此，利用三次曲線模型對(duì)我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量的研究具有一定的合理性。 分析與假設(shè) 1) 假設(shè)收集的數(shù)據(jù)真實(shí)可靠，能夠全面的反應(yīng)我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量； 2) 假設(shè)近年來國家政策相對(duì)穩(wěn)定； 3) 假設(shè)近年來道路交通等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資相對(duì)穩(wěn)定； 4) 假設(shè)轎車消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)心理相對(duì)穩(wěn)定； 5) 假設(shè)進(jìn)口轎車數(shù)量變化不是很大； 6) 假設(shè)轎車市場(chǎng)需求量主要受 GDP、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的影響、居民年底儲(chǔ)存余額的影響； 7) 假設(shè)我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量與其它因素?zé)o關(guān)； 8）隨機(jī)誤差項(xiàng)具有零均值和等方差； 為了更好 的了解我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量在每年內(nèi)隨時(shí)間的變化規(guī)律，通過研究2022～ 2022 年有關(guān)我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量的數(shù)據(jù)變化關(guān)系，建立相應(yīng)的數(shù)學(xué)模型，對(duì)未來我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單的預(yù)測(cè)分析。根據(jù)其數(shù)學(xué)模型的不同，可分為線性趨勢(shì)外推法、二次曲線趨勢(shì)外推法、指數(shù)趨勢(shì)外推法和年均增長率外推法四種。因而，對(duì)我國轎車市場(chǎng)的需求進(jìn)行研究是非常的有必要和有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的。做相應(yīng)的定性、定量分析，找出影響我國轎車市場(chǎng)需求量的因素，并求出相應(yīng)的回歸模型；運(yùn)用時(shí)間數(shù)列預(yù)測(cè)法和調(diào)用 GM 預(yù)測(cè)軟件（即灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)軟件）對(duì)我國未來轎車市場(chǎng)需求量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。為有關(guān)轎車行業(yè)和企業(yè)發(fā)展提供參考意見。若按因素的變化來預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的行為，多種因素的多種變化會(huì)使預(yù)測(cè)問題 會(huì) 變得相當(dāng)復(fù)雜甚至不可能。輸出結(jié)果如下： 表 相關(guān)性 GDP （億元） 人均可支配收入 （元） 年底儲(chǔ)蓄余額 （億元） 轎車需求量 （萬輛） GDP （億元） Pearson 相關(guān)性 1 ** ** ** 顯著性（雙側(cè)） N 12 12 11 12 人均可支配收入（元） Pearson 相關(guān)性 ** 1 ** ** 顯著性（雙側(cè)） N 12 12 11 12 年底儲(chǔ)蓄余額 （億元） Pearson 相關(guān)性 ** ** 1 ** 顯著性（雙側(cè)） N 11 11 11 11 轎車需求量 （萬輛） Pearson 相關(guān)性 ** ** ** 1 顯著性（雙側(cè)） N 12 12 11 12 注： **. 在 0 .01 水平（雙側(cè)）上顯著相關(guān)。但是它只能對(duì)具有指數(shù)增長型的數(shù)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行分析和預(yù)測(cè)，對(duì)模型的選擇具有片面性；不能直觀判斷模型的類型時(shí)，不宜選用。s Shaanxi province pass through a stop on the ancient Silk Road, Gansu39。s own path. He urges the reader to find rectitude and lead a moral life. He professes that, only by being self reliant, as opposed to relying on the government and being dictated to by society, can one begin leading a decent and purposeful life. He avers that such a life is the only life worth living. I agree with him. This essay was written during a time of social upheaval in America, and it is rather odd that Emerson authored it, as he was a part of the upper crust of society at the time. It just so happened that he looked around him, at the indolence and the wantonness of the people in his circle。s lost, I believe, are the interesting setups and pauses that illuminate the Chinese art of storytelling. Much of the plot is still there. It is the flavor that was sacrificed. The American edition uses the framework of the Empress Dowager in her senior years reminiscing at the beginning and the end of each episode, hinting at what39。 此外，在開題過程中，我的論文得到了審評(píng)老師們?cè)S多有益的指導(dǎo)和建議，由于各位老師的精心指導(dǎo)和大力支持，才使我的論文得以順利完成。 根據(jù)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)，首先選擇不同的回歸模型，選擇最好的回歸模型進(jìn)行趨勢(shì)外推，由于三次曲線模型的系數(shù)固定不變，所以不能充分反映未來時(shí)間數(shù)列趨勢(shì)增減變化，長期預(yù)測(cè)誤差率較高，但短期預(yù)測(cè) 轎準(zhǔn)確。 （ 7） 消費(fèi)心理，主要表現(xiàn) 在轎車的價(jià)格、養(yǎng)車的費(fèi)用、停車難、交通太擁擠、經(jīng)營方式等多種因素的影響。 這種方法是利用過去的統(tǒng)計(jì)資料建立相適應(yīng)數(shù)學(xué)模型，按時(shí)間序列的趨勢(shì)外推至將來；以預(yù)測(cè) 今后一段時(shí)間的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)和可能達(dá)到的發(fā)展水平。 近年來，轎車工業(yè)發(fā)生了巨大變化，轎車銷售量逐年上升，民用汽車擁有量從 2022年的 萬輛增長到 2022 年的 萬輛，汽車駕駛員人數(shù)從 2022 年的 萬人增長到 2022 年的 萬人（見附錄一）；轎車市場(chǎng)銷售量從 2022 年的 204 萬輛增長到 2022 年的 萬輛，占汽車銷售量的比例從 2022 年的 %上升到 2022年的 %（見附錄二）；根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)可知轎車在汽車工業(yè)的地位大大提高了，轎車消費(fèi)已經(jīng)成為人們關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)之一。選用多種模型進(jìn)行分析，根據(jù)多種模型的擬合優(yōu)度進(jìn)行比較，選用最好的擬合優(yōu)度，得出相應(yīng)的三次曲線模型。 統(tǒng)計(jì)理論 無論是觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)還是實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)，都需要度量。因此，灰色理論主張用單因素模型 GM（ 1,1） 作預(yù)測(cè)，并把基于 GM（ 1， 1）模型的預(yù)測(cè)稱為灰色預(yù)測(cè)。 相關(guān)性 檢驗(yàn) 由表 知 GDP、 城鎮(zhèn) 居民人均可支配收入 、 年底儲(chǔ)蓄余額 分別與 轎車需求量 的相關(guān)系數(shù)分別為 ， ， ；均大于 ，所以 GDP、 城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入 、年底儲(chǔ)蓄余額 分別與 轎車需求量 高度 都有著 相關(guān) 的關(guān)系 。對(duì)于 SPSS 軟件預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)剛好彌補(bǔ) 了灰色預(yù)測(cè)軟件的缺點(diǎn)，它可以根據(jù)不同模型的變化趨勢(shì)，根據(jù)擬合優(yōu)度，選擇最好的模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。s Zhangye city during their journey to Kazakhstan, May 5, 2022. The caravan, consisting of more than 100 camels, three horsedrawn carriages and four support vehicles, started the trip from Jingyang county in Shaanxi on Sept 19, 2022. It will pass through Gansu province and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, and finally arrive in Almaty, formerly known as AlmaAta, the largest city in Kazakhstan, and Dungan in Zhambyl province. The trip will cover about 15,000 kilometers and take the caravan more than one year to plete. The caravan is expected to return to Jingyang in March 2022. Then they will e back, carrying specialty products from Kazakhstan A small art troupe founded six decades ago has grown into a household name in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region. In the 1950s, Ulan Muqir Art Troupe was created by nine young musicians, who toured remote villages on horses and performed traditional Mongolian music and dances for nomadic families. The 54yearold was born in Tongliao, in eastern Inner Mongolia and joined the troupe in says there are 74 branch troupes across Inner Mongolia and actors give around 100 shows every year to local nomadic people. I can still recall the days when I toured wi