運籌學(xué)與供應(yīng)鏈管理-第2講(完整版)
【正文】 right 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 預(yù)測進(jìn)行的步驟 步驟 1 確定預(yù)測目的 步驟 2 確定預(yù)測時間跨度 步驟 3 選擇預(yù)測技術(shù) 步驟 4 收集和分析數(shù)據(jù) 步驟 5 準(zhǔn)備預(yù)測 步驟 6 預(yù)測監(jiān)控 “預(yù)測 ” 37 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 31 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 預(yù)測的類型 ? 主觀判斷 – 主觀意見 ? 時間序列 – 使用歷史數(shù)據(jù)，認(rèn)為將來和過去相似 ? 聯(lián)合模型 – 基于自變量預(yù)測未來 38 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 平均方法 ? 移動平均 ? 加權(quán)移動平均 ? 指數(shù)平滑法 315 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 選擇平滑常數(shù) 353739414345471 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Pe r i o dDemand? ? .1 ? ? .4 實際數(shù)據(jù) 321 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 關(guān)聯(lián)預(yù)測 ? 有關(guān)的變量 – 預(yù)示這些量的值 ? 回歸分析 – 用一條線去擬合一組點集 ? 最小二乘法 – 使線與點間的距離平方和最小 327 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 40 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 預(yù)測精度 ? 誤差 – 實際值與預(yù)測值之間的偏差 ? 絕對平均偏差 (MAD) –誤差的絕對值的平均值 ? 均方差 (MSE) –誤差的平方的平均值 ? 跟蹤信號 –累計誤差與 MAD 之間的比率 333 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 37 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性趨勢方程舉例 t y 周 t2 銷售 ty 1 1 150 150 2 4 157 314 3 9 162 486 4 16 166 664 5 25 177 885 ? t = 15 ? t2 = 55 ? y = 812 ? ty = 24 99 ( ? t)2 = 225 323 McGrawHill/I
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