【正文】 y to pay the rent/mortgage, humans will fall out of the system in droves as this shift takes place…The safe zones are services that require local human effort (gardening, painting, babysitting), distant human effort (editing, coaching, coordinating), and highlevel thinking/relationship building. Everything else falls in the targetrich environment of automation.” Mike Roberts, Inter pioneer and Hall of Fame member and longtime leader with ICANN and the Inter Society, shares this view: “Electronic human avatars with substantial work capability are years, not decades away. The situation is exacerbated by total failure of the economics munity to address to any serious degree sustainability issues that are destroying the modern ?consumerist? model and undermining the early 20th century notion of ?a fair day39。 cars will be totally unmanned. The human39。t think the human race can retire en masse by 2025.” Argument 2: Advances in technology create new jobs and industries even as they displace some of the older ones Ben Shneiderman, professor of puter science at the University of Maryland, wrote, “Robots and AI make pelling stories for journalists, but they are a false vision of the major economic changes. Journalists lost their jobs because of changes to advertising, professors are threatened by MOOCs, and store salespeople are losing jobs to Inter sales people. Improved user interfaces, electronic delivery (videos, music, etc.), and more selfreliant customers reduce job needs. At the 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g same time someone is building new websites, managing corporate social media plans, creating new products, etc. Improved user interfaces, novel services, and fresh ideas will create more jobs.” Amy Webb, CEO of strategy firm Webbmedia Group, wrote, “There is a general concern that the robots are taking over. I disagree that our emerging technologies will permanently displace most of the workforce, though I39。 Inter and technology。 global attitudes and . social and demo graphic trends. All of the center?s reports are available at . Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Alan Murray, President Michael Dimock, Vice President, Research Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Andrew Kohut, Founding Director 169。 they may not be strictly attributable to the uses of automation but they are related…what the middle of the 20th century shows us is how dramatic major economic changes are—like the 1970s OPECdriven increases of the price of oil—and how those changes can dwarf the effects of technology.” Argument 3: There are certain jobs that only humans have the capacity to do A number of respondents argued that many jobs require uniquely human characteristics such as empathy, creativity, judgment, or critical thinking—and that jobs of this nature will never succumb to widespread automation. David Hughes, a retired . Army Colonel who, from 1972, was a pioneer in individual to/from digital telemunications, responded, “For all the automation and AI, I think the 39。 are on the road.” Pamela Rutledge, PhD and director of the Media Psychology Research Center, responded, “There will be many things that machines can39。s Berkman Center for Inter amp。m reminded of the line from Henry Ford, who understood he does no good to his business if his own people can39。application of heuristics39。ve been living a relatively slow but certain progress in these fields from the 1960s.” Christopher Wilkinson, a retired European Union official, board member for , and Inter Society leader said, “The vast majority of the population will be untouched by these technologies for the foreseeable future. AI and robotics will be a niche, with a few leading applications such as banking, retailing, and transport. The risks of error and the imputation of liability remain major constraints to the application of these technologies to the ordinary landscape.” 9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Argument 5: Our social, legal, and regulatory structures will minimize the impact on employment A final group suspects that economic, political, and social concerns will prevent the widespread displacement of jobs. Glenn Edens, a director of research in working, security, and distributed systems within the Computer Science Laboratory at PARC, a Xerox Company, wrote, “There are significant technical and policy issues yet to resolve, however there is a relentless march on the part of mercial interests (businesses) to increase productivity so if the technical advances are reliable and have a positive ROI then there is a risk that workers will be displaced. Ultimately we need a broad and large base of employed population, otherwise there will be no one to pay for all of this new world.” Andrew Rens, chief council at the Shuttleworth Foundation, wrote, “A fundamental insight of economics is that an entrepreneur will only supply goods or services if there is a demand, and those who demand the good can pay. Therefore any country that wants a petitive economy will ensure that most of its citizens are employed so that in turn they can pay for goods and services. If a country doesn39。selfdriving39。t reduce them. A car that can guide itself on a striped street has more difficulty with an unstriped street, for example, and any automated system can handle events that it is designed for, but not events (such as a child chasing a ball into a street) for which it is not designed. Y es, I expect a lot of change. I don39。 media and journalism。 Pew Research Center 20xx About the Imagining the Inter Center at Elon University The Imagining the Inter Center? s mission is to explore and provide insights into emerging work innovations, global development, dynamics, diffusion and governance. Its research hol