【正文】 udgery and more leisure time Hal Varian, chief economist for Google, envisions a future with fewer ?jobs? but a more equitable distribution of labor and leisure time: “If ?displace more jobs? means ?eliminate dull, repetitive, and unpleasant work,? the answer would be yes. How unhappy are you that your dishwasher has replaced washing dishes by hand, your washing machine has displaced washing clothes by hand, or your vacuum cleaner has replaced hand cleaning? My guess is this ?job displacement? has been very wele, as will the ?job displacement? that will occur over the next 10 years. The work week g 13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER has fallen from 70 hours a week to about 37 hours now, and I expect that it will continue to fall.。 truck driver is the numberone occupation for men in the .. Just as importantly, autonomous cars will radically decrease car ownership, which will impact the automotive industry. Perhaps 70% of cars in urban areas would go away. Autonomous robots and systems could impact up to 50% of jobs, according to recent analysis by Frey and Osborne at Oxford, leaving only jobs that require the 39。t do that most human of all things: emotionally connect with her.” Michael Glassman, associate professor at the Ohio State University, wrote, “I think AI will do a few more things, but people are going to be surprised how limited it is. There will be greater differentiation between what AI does and what humans do, but also much more realization that AI will not be able to engage the critical tasks that humans do.” Argument 4: The technology will not advance enough in the next decade to substantially impact the job market Another group of experts feels that the impact on employment is likely to be minimal for the simple reason that 10 years is too short a timeframe for automation to move substantially beyond the factory floor. David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT?s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, noted, “The larger trend to consider is the peration of automation into service jobs. This trend will require new skills for the service industry, which may challenge some of the lowertier workers, but in 12 years I do not think autonomous devices will be truly autonomous. I think they will allow us to deliver a higher level of service with the same level of human involvement.” Jari Arkko, Inter expert for Ericsson and chair of the Inter Engineering Task Force, wrote, “There is no doubt that these technologies affect the types of jobs that need to be done. But there are only 12 years to 2025, some of these technologies will take a long time to deploy in significant scale…We39。t think all 39。s political boundaries). Driven by revolutions in education and in technology, the very nature of work will have changed radically—but only in economies that have chosen to invest in education, technology, and related infrastructure. Some classes of jobs will be handed over to the ?immigrants? of AI and Robotics, but more will have been generated in creative and curating activities as demand for their services grows exponentially while barriers to entry continue to fall. For many classes of jobs, robots will continue to be poor labor substitutes.” 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Rangaswami?s prediction incorporates a number of arguments made by those in this canvassing who took his side of this question. Argument 1: Throughout history, technology has been a job creator—not a job destroyer Vint Cerf, vice president and chief Inter evangelist for Google, said, “Historically, technology has created more jobs than it destroys and there is no reason to think otherwise in this case. Someone has to make and service all these advanced devices.” Jonathan Grudin, principal researcher for Microsoft, concurred: “Technology will continue to disrupt jobs, but more jobs seem likely to be created. When the world population was a few hundred million people there were hundreds of millions of jobs. Although there have always been unemployed people, when we reached a few billion people there were billions of jobs. There is no shortage of things that need to be done and that will not change.” Michael Kende, the economist for a major Interoriented nonprofit anization, wrote, “In general, every wave of automation and puterization has increased productivity without depressing employment, and there is no reason to think the same will not be true this time. In particular, the new wave is likely to increase our personal or professional productivity (. self driving car) but not necessarily directly displace a job (. chauffeur). While robots may displace some manual jobs, the impact should not be different than previous waves of automation in factories and elsewhere. On the other hand, someone will have to code and build the new tools, which will also likely lead to a new wave of innovations and jobs.” Fred Baker, Inter pioneer, longtime leader in the IETF and Cisco Systems Fellow, responded, “My observation of advances in automation has been that they change jobs, but they don39。 UMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE 6, 20xx FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Aaron Smith, Senior Researcher, Inter Project Janna Anderson, Director, Elon University’s Imagining the Inter Center RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, August 20xx, “AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs” Available at: 1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g About This Report This report is the latest in a sustained effort throughout 20xx by the Pew Research Center?s Inter Project to mark the 25th anniversary of the creation of the World