【正文】 llocation of resources) 使命（資源分配） Objectives (in clear measurable figures) 目標(biāo)（明確的可測(cè)量數(shù)值） 2022/3/13 67 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (5) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 All projects must follow the principles of Strategic Management: 所有的項(xiàng)目都必須要遵循戰(zhàn)略管理的原則 Feasibility study 可行性研究 Business plans with various options 具有多種備選方案的 商業(yè)計(jì)劃 2022/3/13 68 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (6) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Breakeven analysis, 損益兩平分析 Balance sheet and p+l – account 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表及 損益 賬戶 manuals, employee handbooks, 員工手冊(cè) 2022/3/13 69 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (7) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 job descriptions 工作說明 controlling tools 控制工具 and many more 等等 2022/3/13 70 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (8) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Definition of the term “risk” A risk is the uncertainty and the likelihood of the impact of objectives of an action of a pany “ 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ” 的 定義， 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是企業(yè)行為對(duì)目標(biāo)影響的不確定性和可能性。 ” 無論發(fā)生了什么，他都擁有快速解決方案。 因此，保險(xiǎn)成為資金的替代品。 2022/3/13 82 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Risk Capital 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本 At the end of all assessments and measurements ERM evaluates the capital to finance the risk. 在所有評(píng)定和測(cè)量之后， 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 需 評(píng)估 應(yīng)對(duì) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所需資金。 2022/3/13 73 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (11) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Logic behind: every action has a reason (past) every action has a chain reaction (future) 背后的邏輯： 每一個(gè)行為都有其原因（過去） 每一個(gè)行為都有其連鎖反 應(yīng) （將來） 2022/3/13 74 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (1) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) store and structure their knowledge in special EDP systems 利用特殊的專業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫 存儲(chǔ)并 架構(gòu)知識(shí)體系 are 25 % more intelligent than others 比其他企業(yè)明智 25% act professional on all levels 在各個(gè) 層 面 的表現(xiàn) 更為專業(yè) 2022/3/13 75 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (2) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) can measure 80 % of all actions 可衡量 80%的行為后果 show a high degree of interaction + internal munication 表現(xiàn)出高度的互動(dòng)性及內(nèi)部交流 run their controlling systems on EVA basis 基于 經(jīng)濟(jì)附加值基礎(chǔ)上 的控制 體系 increase the internal efficiency ratio with over 50 % in general 內(nèi)部效率 普遍 增長超過 50% 2022/3/13 76 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (3) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 進(jìn)行企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) get between 25 % and 55 % more profit (EBIT) after implementation 實(shí)行后利潤 (息稅前收益 EBIT)可增加 25%到 55% the staffs are much higher motivated 員工 積極性更高 the fluctuation ratio decreases with about 50 % 員工流動(dòng)率減少 50% 2022/3/13 77 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The implementation of ERM 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的實(shí)行 The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) today is a member of the Board He leads the risk department, often a part of the Controlling department His credo is: “no surprise”! Whatever may happen, he has a fast solution 現(xiàn)在，首席風(fēng)險(xiǎn)官是董事會(huì)的一員， 其所負(fù)責(zé)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部門，通常作為控制部門的一部分。 2022/3/13 64 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (2) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 All risks must be measurable in figures (%, RMB, numbers) Risks which are not measurable must be deleted. 所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都必須被量 化 為具體數(shù)值（ 百分比 ，元或數(shù)字） 不可測(cè)量 的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)必須被刪除 。 2022/3/13 57 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (9) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 Problem: It takes about 3 years until the whole pany understands and follows the ERM concept. It is a never ending process. It costs money in its implementation stage. It needs huge training efforts and it starts from top to down. But it brings big advantages. 問題是： 要整個(gè)企業(yè)理解和遵循企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理大概需要 3年時(shí)間， 整個(gè)過程沒有結(jié)尾，在實(shí)行階段需要大量資金， 需要投入大量的培訓(xùn)， 改變只能自 上而下 發(fā)生。 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論遵循的是傳統(tǒng)中醫(yī)思維。 有輸家就有贏家。 2022/3/13 40 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (5) 2022年中國快速發(fā)展崩盤？ How is the reality of the Chinese education system today? If it is far away from international standard, how can it be improved? 然而，目前中國的教育水平是怎樣的呢？ 如果我們教育水平還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及國際化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)， 那我們?cè)撊绻岣呶覀兊乃侥兀? 2022/3/13 41 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Questions (1) 問題 How is China prepared? The China Risk Report indicates about 20 major weaknesses. The economic consequences following these major risks bear huge financial burdens. 中國準(zhǔn)備 得如何 ？ 中國風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 調(diào)查 報(bào)告顯示大約 20種主要 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 。 中國一些地區(qū)也處于地震活躍帶。 2022/3/13 26 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The North African + Middle East crises (1) 北非與中東危機(jī) Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq – all countries show war, riots, revolutions ? and huge social, political, economical disasters. 突尼斯，埃及，利比亞，敘利亞，也門，巴林，伊朗，伊拉克 – 這些國家都在經(jīng)歷著戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，暴動(dòng)與革命 ? 以及巨大的社會(huì)，政治，經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。 2022/3/13 15 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Econ