【正文】 2022/3/13 85 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk classification (2) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類 Internal Risks include: Hazard + operational risks 內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括： 危害及操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 2022/3/13 86 柯朗。 因此，保險(xiǎn)成為資金的替代品。 2022/3/13 82 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Risk Capital 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本 At the end of all assessments and measurements ERM evaluates the capital to finance the risk. 在所有評(píng)定和測(cè)量之后， 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 需 評(píng)估 應(yīng)對(duì) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所需資金。 如： 汽車 + 事故 /非典 /買方違約 /地震 2022/3/13 81 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Risk Correlations 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)性 All 5 risk ponents correlate to each other, either as single risks or in a bined form. That is the reason why ERM needs a risk matrix. 這 5個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組成部分相互關(guān)聯(lián)， 有時(shí)是 獨(dú)立 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)， 有時(shí)是以 組合 的方式呈現(xiàn) 。 卓越的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人更關(guān)注其嚴(yán)重性。 ” 無論發(fā)生了什么，他都擁有快速解決方案。 2022/3/13 73 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (11) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Logic behind: every action has a reason (past) every action has a chain reaction (future) 背后的邏輯： 每一個(gè)行為都有其原因（過去） 每一個(gè)行為都有其連鎖反 應(yīng) （將來） 2022/3/13 74 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (1) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) store and structure their knowledge in special EDP systems 利用特殊的專業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫 存儲(chǔ)并 架構(gòu)知識(shí)體系 are 25 % more intelligent than others 比其他企業(yè)明智 25% act professional on all levels 在各個(gè) 層 面 的表現(xiàn) 更為專業(yè) 2022/3/13 75 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (2) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) can measure 80 % of all actions 可衡量 80%的行為后果 show a high degree of interaction + internal munication 表現(xiàn)出高度的互動(dòng)性及內(nèi)部交流 run their controlling systems on EVA basis 基于 經(jīng)濟(jì)附加值基礎(chǔ)上 的控制 體系 increase the internal efficiency ratio with over 50 % in general 內(nèi)部效率 普遍 增長超過 50% 2022/3/13 76 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (3) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 進(jìn)行企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) get between 25 % and 55 % more profit (EBIT) after implementation 實(shí)行后利潤 (息稅前收益 EBIT)可增加 25%到 55% the staffs are much higher motivated 員工 積極性更高 the fluctuation ratio decreases with about 50 % 員工流動(dòng)率減少 50% 2022/3/13 77 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The implementation of ERM 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的實(shí)行 The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) today is a member of the Board He leads the risk department, often a part of the Controlling department His credo is: “no surprise”! Whatever may happen, he has a fast solution 現(xiàn)在，首席風(fēng)險(xiǎn)官是董事會(huì)的一員， 其所負(fù)責(zé)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部門，通常作為控制部門的一部分。 我們稱之為 “ 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)困境 ” 。 甚至不 做 決定也是一個(gè)決定， 而不做決定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更是百倍于其它。 2022/3/13 66 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (4) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 All projects must follow the principles of Strategic Management: 所有的項(xiàng)目都必須要遵循戰(zhàn)略管理的原則 Vision (long term goal), 遠(yuǎn)景（長期目標(biāo)） Mission (allocation of resources) 使命（資源分配） Objectives (in clear measurable figures) 目標(biāo)（明確的可測(cè)量數(shù)值） 2022/3/13 67 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (5) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 All projects must follow the principles of Strategic Management: 所有的項(xiàng)目都必須要遵循戰(zhàn)略管理的原則 Feasibility study 可行性研究 Business plans with various options 具有多種備選方案的 商業(yè)計(jì)劃 2022/3/13 68 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (6) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Breakeven analysis, 損益兩平分析 Balance sheet and p+l – account 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表及 損益 賬戶 manuals, employee handbooks, 員工手冊(cè) 2022/3/13 69 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (7) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 job descriptions 工作說明 controlling tools 控制工具 and many more 等等 2022/3/13 70 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (8) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Definition of the term “risk” A risk is the uncertainty and the likelihood of the impact of objectives of an action of a pany “ 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ” 的 定義， 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是企業(yè)行為對(duì)目標(biāo)影響的不確定性和可能性。 2022/3/13 64 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (2) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 All risks must be measurable in figures (%, RMB, numbers) Risks which are not measurable must be deleted. 所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都必須被量 化 為具體數(shù)值（ 百分比 ，元或數(shù)字） 不可測(cè)量 的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)必須被刪除 。 世界 500強(qiáng)企業(yè)均在使用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案。 學(xué)習(xí)的 前提 是 ：大學(xué) 畢業(yè) ， 有 工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)和 會(huì) 三種語言。 2022/3/13 58 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (10) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 In the West, we offer special ERM MBA – curriculum That study takes 3 years, and we offer that for production sector, banking insurance business (actuary science). 在西方，我們提供特殊的企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 工商管理碩士 課程。 2022/3/13 57 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (9) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 Problem: It takes about 3 years until the whole pany understands and follows the ERM concept. It is a never ending process. It costs money i