【正文】 監(jiān)管及審核制度 完全失效 2022/3/13 18 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Financial + Banking crises (3) 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機 The USA carries excessive debts for the next 30 years and its next generation will have to shoulder these burdens. 由于巨大的債務(wù)，美國未來的 30年要在還債中度過， 以至于必須要下一代來承擔這一重擔。 他們怎樣才能繼續(xù)生存？ 2022/3/13 20 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Financial + Banking crises (5) 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機 How to get rid of the government debts? The US print money and the rest of the world has to buy and to rescue the US. But for how long? 如何擺脫政府債務(wù) 困境 ？ 美國印刷美元，其他國家 被迫 購買 并以此來 拯救美國。 但是通貨膨脹不僅消滅債務(wù) 更 消滅財富?。?！ 2022/3/13 22 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Political crises 政治危機 The interdependency between economic + political crises shows: Political crises lead to economical crises and vice versa 經(jīng)濟危機與政治危機的相關(guān)性顯示： 政治危機導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟危機，反之亦然。 2022/3/13 24 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The EU crises (2) 歐盟危機 Who is next? Spain, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Belgium, and ? ??? 誰將會是下一個？ 西班牙，意大利，匈牙利，波蘭，羅馬尼亞，比利時，還是 ???? 2022/3/13 25 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The EU crises (3) 歐盟危機 In reality the EU – zone country rescue program is an EU banking rescue program, due to their huge Government bond positions in their balance sheets 由于在其（銀行）資產(chǎn)負債表中政府公債數(shù)額巨大， 歐盟國家救援計劃事實上是歐盟銀行業(yè)救援計劃。 2022/3/13 27 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The North African + Middle East crises (2) 北非與中東危機 Who is next? Saudi Arabia? 誰將會是下一個？ 沙特阿拉伯？ 2022/3/13 28 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Central African crises (1) 中非危機 Somalia, Ethiopia, Namibia, Ivory Cote ? about 40 % of the African nations are economical “dead”. 索馬里，埃塞俄比亞，納米比亞，象牙科特 ? 大約 40%的非洲國家都已經(jīng)經(jīng)濟“死亡”。 2022/3/13 31 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Natural Disasters (2) 自然災(zāi)害 The climate change will impact our living standards. The CO2 output and the melting of the ice on the poles can39。 二氧化碳過度排放造成的溫室效應(yīng)及 兩極冰川消融將無法阻止。 類似情況 還將會發(fā)生在其 它 地區(qū)。 2022/3/13 33 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China And how about China? (1) 中國呢？ The Chinese economic dependency on the US and EU is tremendous (over 50 % of its GDP) 中國經(jīng)濟過于依賴美國和歐盟 “超過了國民生產(chǎn)總值的 50%” 2022/3/13 34 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China And how about China? (2) 中國呢？ If the US and/or the EU face major economic problems, China will be hit with a certain time lag. 如果美國或者 /和歐盟面臨著 較大的 經(jīng)濟問題， 中國將會在一定時間 段 內(nèi)受到?jīng)_擊。 2022/3/13 36 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (1) 2022年中國快速發(fā)展崩盤？ The research paper analyses the situation of 4 previous booming nations since 1957: Germany, Argentina, Japan, Korea. In a 2nd step it pared the results with the situation in China 該研究舉例分析了自 1957年以來德國，阿根廷， 日本及韓國的快速發(fā)展情況 .而后的第二步， 他們將得出的結(jié)論與中國的現(xiàn)狀相對比。 (該預(yù)測結(jié)果基于多元變化回歸分析法。 2022/3/13 39 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (4) 2022年中國快速發(fā)展崩盤？ One of the 2 decreasing facts stipulates: If the booming nation has reached a high level international education system, then the probability ratio decreases. 其中一項可降低崩盤可能性因素指出： 若該快速發(fā)展國家可提高其教育程度至國際化水平， 則可有效降低崩盤可能性 。 這些主要風險所帶來的經(jīng)濟后果會造成巨大的經(jīng)濟負擔。 它的可能性是確實須要引起重視。 2022/3/13 44 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Interim results (2) 中期結(jié)論 “No more the big eat the small, rather than the fast eat the slow” “ 不再是大吃小， 而是以快制慢 ” 2022/3/13 45 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Interim results (3) 中期結(jié)論 The only constant in our global life is the permanent but speeding change of increasing risks. 在我們?nèi)蚧钪形ㄒ徊蛔兙褪? 不斷增長的風險的快速變化。 2022/3/13 47 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Interim results (5) 中期結(jié)論 However: Where there are risks there are chances too. Where there are losers there are winners though. You can only be a winner, if your Enterprise Knowledge Management is top 然而： 風險與機遇并存 。 如果你的企業(yè)知識管理處于頂尖水平， 那么固然你將成為贏家。 問題是：怎樣應(yīng)對和誰來應(yīng)對？ 2022/3/13 50 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (2) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 The old risk concept was a “silo – approach” Everybody handled the risks in his own sector and only when they occurred. 以往的風險 管理 概念是 “ 獨立方案 ” 。 2022/3/13 51 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (3) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 That was one of the reasons why the insurance industry boomed over the past decades. This way of thinking is out. 這就是為什么在過去的幾十年間保險業(yè)如此興盛的原因 之一 。 2022/3/13 52 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (4) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 The ERM concept regards a pany as a human being: Body, soul, heart, emotions, energy – all is one