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【正文】 market. 7 Peration Curves BOS Agenda ?Concept ?Application ?Case example ?Methodology 8 Peration Curves BOS ?In 1994, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) issued a statement confirming that most ulcers are strongly associated with the presence of a bacteria (H. Pylori). While previously, doctors had been advised to treat ulcer symptoms with antisecretory drugs, NIH now remends that ulcer patients with H. Pylori infections also be treated with antibiotics. The new treatment cures not only ulcer symptoms, but the underlying cause of the disease. ?In 1997, a new device was granted a patent by the . Patent Office which will test human breath for the presence of H. Pylori –a blood test for H. Pylori is already on the market –doctors may also test for H. Pylori using tissue samples obtained through endoscopy, a relatively invasive and painful medical procedure ?Our client is considering buying the patent and believes that the breath test technology holds significant advantages over both blood tests and endoscopy –less invasive than endoscopy –more accurate than blood tests Situation: ?How large is the market for H. Pylori tests over time? Key Question: A Bain case team used peration curve analysis to examine how quickly medical practices change. Disguised Case Situation (1 of 2) 9 Peration Curves BOS ?A search of the existing literature revealed that in 1995, only 5% of doctors were testing patients suspected of having an ulcer for H. Pylori –in 1991, the figure was close to 1% ?In order to determine how quickly the NIH report would impact doctors’ behavior, our case team surveyed doctors in the fall of 1997: –60% said they were testing their suspected ulcer patients for H. Pylori –15% said they treated all suspected ulcer patients with a course
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