某咨詢分析方法scurve1(完整版)
【正文】 atio) Predicted Peration Ratio etc. ?Take the natural log of the years and the peration ratio ?Regress the log of years vs. the log of the peration ratio ?Use results to calculate predicted peration ratio –use formula for a line, and take antilog –antilog of ( ln(year) x xcoefficient +b ) Methodology (2 of 3) 14 Peration Curves BOS ?Calculate predicted peration using the predicted peration ratio and saturation point –((predicted peration ratio x saturation point) / (1 + predicted peration ratio)) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2023 % % % % Years Historic Peration ln(years) () () () () ln(peration ratio) Predicted Peration Ratio Peration Ratio % % % % % % % % Predicted Peration Methodology (3 of 3) 15 Peration Curves BOS 靜夜四無(wú)鄰，荒居舊業(yè)貧。 , March 12, 2023 雨中黃葉樹(shù)，燈下白頭人。 上午 4時(shí) 8分 22秒 上午 4時(shí) 8分 04:08: 沒(méi)有失敗，只有暫時(shí)停止成功！。 2023年 3月 12日星期日 4時(shí) 8分 22秒 04:08:2212 March 2023 1空山新雨后，天氣晚來(lái)秋。 2023年 3月 12日星期日 上午 4時(shí) 8分 22秒 04:08: 1最具挑戰(zhàn)性的挑戰(zhàn)莫過(guò)于提升自我。勝人者有力，自勝者強(qiáng)。 2023年 3月 12日星期日 上午 4時(shí) 8分 22秒 04:08: 1楚塞三湘接，荊門(mén)九派通。 2023年 3月 上午 4時(shí) 8分 :08March 12, 2023 1行動(dòng)出成果，工作出財(cái)富。 1998 Bain Company, Inc. 2 Peration Curves BOS ?Products can be thought of as following a lifecycle that has several distinct phases: –early adoption/trial –mass adoption –saturation/substitution –decline ?The product lifecycle generates a series of market peration rates that tend to follow a specific pattern, called an Scurve (or peration curve) ?Given the pattern of peration curves over time, and given that this relationship holds to some extent in almost every case, peration curves can be
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