某咨詢分析方法scurve1-文庫吧在線文庫
【正文】 –1995 = 5% –1997 = 60% ?Saturation point = 85% Peration Curve Data: Combining secondary research with surveys, the team obtained a few historic peration points, as well as the projected saturation point. Disguised Case Situation (2 of 2) 10 Peration Curves BOS H. Pylori Testing Market 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 70%20%40%60%80%10 0%Percentage of Doctors Testing for H. Pylori= data point = predicted peration curve (based on regression) Saturation point = 85% Peration curve analysis smoothed the known data points into an Scurve that showed an aggressive schedule for the adoption of H. Pylori tests. 11 Peration Curves BOS Agenda ?Concept ?Application ?Case example ?Methodology 12 Peration Curves BOS ?Gather historic data and set up spreadsheet ?Pick saturation point –this should be the logical ceiling on a product’s peration (. not every home will have a puter, even in the most optimistic of scenarios) –saturation point = 100% in this example ?Calculate peration ratio –(historic percent) / (saturation point historic percent) 1989 1990 1991 1992 % % % % Years Historic Peration 1989 1990 1991 1992 % % % % Years Historic Peration Peration Ratio Methodology (1 of 3) 13 Peration Curves BOS 1989 1990 1991 1992 % % % % Years Historic Peration Peration Ratio ln(years) () () () () ln(peration ratio) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 etc. % % % % Years Historic Peration Peration Ratio etc. ln(years) () () () () ln(peration r
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