某咨詢分析方法varianceanalysis-文庫(kù)吧在線文庫(kù)
【正文】 riance $ Adjusted Variances Price Variance Volume Variance (P1) (P2 P1) (V1) (V2 V1) $ (P1 x V1) ( ) ( ) (P2P1)x(V2V1) (+) (%) (%) 63% 34% 3% 65% 35% () () () () () $ (P1 x V1) 1998 $ $ (P2) (V2) $ (V2 x P1) $ (P2 x V1) $ $ (+) (+) Variance % Here is an example of an annotated spreadsheet to determine variance. Two Component Variance Example Jesse’s Brewery (5 of 6) 17 Variance Analysis Price variance: Volume variance: Covariance: $ $ $ Proportions are 65% 35% 65% 35% to price variance $ to volume variance $ + + $ $ Price $ $ Volume Total variances: (65%) (35%) If price and volume variances are calculated correctly, then we can take their proportions to allocate covariance. Two Component Variance Example Jesse’s Brewery (6 of 6) 18 Variance Analysis Negative Covariance new (1998) (1997) $ (1997) $ new (1998) Volume Price Even if one variable decreases, the formula applies the same way. The only difference is that price variance and covariance turn negative. Volume = () x $ Price = ($$) x = = $ MM $ MM Covariance = () x ($$) = $ MM $ MM Total Variance In some situations one variable may fall as the other rises. The formula for covariance does not change. 19 Variance Analysis Negative Covariance In two variable problems, when one variable increases and one decreases (+ ), we arrive at a negative covariance if the formulas are applied exactly as before (change only the variable whose variance we are calculating) This negative covariance (P2 P1) x (V2 V1) then needs assigning in proportion to the absolute values of the two variables This absolute value approach can be applied to multiple variables using the Excel spreadsheet The example given is also intuitively correct (price falls, volume rises) To summarize, the methodology does not change in calculating negative covariance. 20 Variance Analysis Agenda ?What is variance analysis? ?Linear variance – Ice Cream Co. ?Two ponent variance analysis – Jesse’s Brewery ?Variance analysis with more than two ponents – Boston Video ?Key takeaways 21 Variance Analysis More Than Two Component Variance Example Situation: ?Boston Video is a chain of video rental stores in the Northeast . In addition to renting video movies and games, the stores sell a variety of movierelated items (popcorn, candy, film magazines). They also get money for late fees ?Bain has been hired to help Boston Video segment its customer base and understand what drives the differences in spending patterns between segments Question: ?What variables impact revenue per customer? ?What is the overall variance by customer type? What are the breakdowns of that variance by customer type? ?What should Bain focus on improving? 22 Variance Analysis CBACBACBANu m b e r o f cu st o m e r s Nu m b e r of t ra n sac tion s To tal r e v e n u e0%20%40%60%80%10 0%Percent of Total11,411 customers 74K transactions $441K Customers were segmented into 3 groups. “A” customers represent only 20% of Boston’s customer base but generate 50% of store transactions and 60% of revenue. A, B, C Customers Data How might you frame an analysis to understand a lot impacts revenues per customer? More Than Two Component Variance Example 23 Variance Analysis Revenue Drivers Framework The differences in customer spending levels between segments can be identified and isolated into two broad categories. Revenue per Customer Number of Transactions Sell Thru Revenue Rental Revenue Late Fees and Other Quantity Product Mix Revenue per Transaction More Than Two Component Variance Example 24 Variance Analysis O t h e r $ 0 .1 3L a t eF e e s$ 1 . 0 3S e l l T h r u$ 1 . 0 1V i d e or e n t a l$ 4 . 7 2$ 0 .1 2$0 . 66$ 0 .6 0$ 4 . 2 0$ 0 .0 7$ 0 .3 4$ 0 .3 1$ 3 . 7 3A B C$ 6 . 8 9$ 5 . 5 8$ 4 . 4 5$0$2$4$6$8Dollars A B CTransactions Per Customer Per Month Number of Transactions Revenue per Transaction The foll
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