【正文】 al estate industry listed pany financial crisis problem are discussed in detailed research. Then the whole situation of the real estate industry of our country related theory research, this paper introduces the our country real estate industry and its general features of financial crisis, and from the macroscopic and microscopic two aspects of real estate panies, we deeply analyzed the forming causes of the financial crisis. In addition, through the elaboration on the relevant theories of financial crisis warning system, as well as the next financial crisis early warning for empirical research laid a more solid theoretical basis. According to the selection principle and the needs of the financial crisis forecast in this paper to determine the financial indicators, bined with the single variable index and Z score model two kinds of model, the detailed study on the real estate enterprises. In view of the present national conditions and the specific situation of the real estate listed panies in our country, learn about financial crisis warning model and to take preventive measures, has important economic value and practical significance. Key words: Financial Crisis Financial Risk Early Warning Crisis Prevention 房地產企業(yè)財務危機預警與防范研究 目 錄 1 引言 ........................................................................ 1 研究背景 .............................................................. 1 研究的目的和意義 ...................................................... 2 研究目的 ........................................................ 2 研究意義 ........................................................ 2 研究的思路、內容和方法 ................................................ 3 研究思路及方法 .................................................. 3 研究內容 ........................................................ 3 2 財務危機理論意義及行業(yè)特征 .................................................. 4 財務風險的定義 ........................................................ 4 什么是財務風險 .................................................. 4 財務風險的基本類型 .............................................. 4 財務危機定義及原因 .................................................... 5 財務風險與財務危機的關系 .............................................. 6 財務危機自身特點及其行業(yè)特征 .......................................... 7 3 財務危機出現(xiàn)的原因及其現(xiàn)狀分析 .............................................. 7 宏觀因素原因分析 ...................................................... 7 經濟風險 ........................................................ 7 資源風險 ........................................................ 8 市場風險 ........................................................ 8 政策風險 ........................................................ 8 微觀因素的原因分析 .................................................... 9 籌資風險 ........................................................ 9 投資風險 ........................................................ 9 營運風險 ........................................................ 9 收益分配風險 ................................................... 10 我國房地產財務危機現(xiàn)狀分析 ........................................... 10 4 財務危機預警系統(tǒng)的研究 ..................................................... 11 財務危計預警理論 ..................................................... 11 財務危機預警的含義 ............................................. 11 預警功能 ....................................................... 11 預警原則 ....................................................... 12 4． 2 財務危機預警樣本與指標選取 .......................................... 13 樣本選擇 ....................................................... 13 指標體系 ....................................................... 13 房地產財務危機預警模型選擇 ........................................... 14 單變量模型 ..................................................... 14 z— score 模型 .................................................. 14 logit 模型 ..................................................... 15 “ zscore”模型對陜西金葉上市公司的實證分析 .......................... 15 5 房地產財務危機具體防范措施 ................................................. 17 6 結論 ....................................................................... 19 參考文獻 .................................................................... 20 致謝 21房地產企業(yè)財務危機預警與防范研究 1 房地產企業(yè)財務危機預警與防范研究 1 引言 研究背景 近年來，一些大型企業(yè)在我國經濟體制改革的春風中生機勃勃、迅猛發(fā)展，為國家做了不少貢獻，但隨著國際政治、經濟環(huán)境的變化，大型企業(yè)也陷入財務危機的情況頻繁發(fā)生，不僅僅是國內，而且還包括國外得破產案件接二連三，