基于z-score模型的我國(guó)制造行業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的分析_畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)論文(已修改)
2025-07-21 07:55 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 北京航空航天大學(xué)北海學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文 ） 第 I 頁(yè) 基于 ZScore 模型我國(guó)制造業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警分析 學(xué)生姓名：唐 XX 指導(dǎo)老師：陳 X 摘 要 隨著社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制逐步完善和資本市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展，許多公司既面臨因國(guó)外跨國(guó)企業(yè)資金涌入帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)又面臨經(jīng)營(yíng)管理不善等內(nèi)部原因造成的威脅，因?yàn)檫@一原因有可能產(chǎn)生一系列的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，進(jìn)而引發(fā)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。一旦發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)往往會(huì)給投資者，債權(quán)人企業(yè)乃至國(guó)家 造成重大損失。如何降低財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，減少損失，成為各厲害關(guān)系人關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。因此，建立有效實(shí)用的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型是具有重大現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的。 本文在分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，研究的背景，意義，分析方法的基礎(chǔ)上，從財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警理論著手，闡述了財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的概念，財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的認(rèn)定，探討了財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的功能和原理，按照這一原理，選取了制造業(yè)的一系列財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)指標(biāo)，通過(guò)構(gòu)建我國(guó)制造業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型 ZScore 模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。 關(guān)鍵 詞 ： 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警， 制造業(yè)， ZScore 模型 北京航空航天大學(xué)北海學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文 ） 第 II 頁(yè) ZScore model of China39。s manufacturing industry listing Corporation financial early warning analysis based on Author : Tang Y a Y un Tutor : Chen S h u Abstract With the rapid development of the socialist market economic system gradually perfect and capital market, many panies are facing both for foreign multinational enterprises of funds into the challenges facing poor management of internal cause of threat, for this reason may produce a series of financial risk, and then lead to financial crisis. Once the financial crisis tend to investors, creditors, enterprises and the country caused heavy losses. How to reduce financial risk, reduce losses, bee the focus of attention of the stakes. Therefore, to establish an effective financial earlywarning model utility is of great practical significance. Based on the analysis of the domestic and international research status, research background, significance, based on the analysis method, starting from the financial earlywarning theory, elaborates the concept of financial early warning, identification of financial crisis, discusses the principle and function of financial early warning, according to this principle, the transport industry a series of financial data. Through the financial early warning model, Z Score model construction of China39。s transportation industry listing Corporation makes empirical analysis. Key words: Financial early warning, Manufacturing industry, ZScore model 北京航空航天大學(xué)北海學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文 ） 第 III 頁(yè) 目 錄 1 緒 論 .......................................................................................................................................1 研究的背景和意義 ...................................................1 研究的背景 ....................................................1 研究的意義 ....................................................1 國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 .....................................................2 國(guó)外學(xué)者對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警理論的研究 ..............................2 國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警理論的研究 ..............................4 2 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警基本理論 ................................................................................................................ 6 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警定義 .............................................................................................................. 6 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的功 能 .......................................................................................................... 6 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警分析方法 ......................................................................................................6 3 制造業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)狀況 ....................................... 9 財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的認(rèn)定 .....................................................9 危機(jī)處理的措施 .....................................................9 制造業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)現(xiàn)狀 ..........................................10 4 ZScore 模型對(duì)制造業(yè)上市公司的實(shí)證分析 ....................................................................13 樣本及財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的選取 ............................................................................................13 研究假設(shè) .....................................................13 樣本的選取 ...................................................13 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源 .....................................................13 實(shí)證分析 ..........................................................14 被處理前三年公司的 Z趨勢(shì)分析 .................................14 5 結(jié)論與展望 ...........................................................................................................................18 致 謝 ....................................................................................................................................20 參 考文 獻(xiàn) ...............................................................
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