【正文】 青島市個人消費信貸市場現(xiàn)狀及風(fēng)險對策研究摘要：自1978年改革開放以來，我國由計劃經(jīng)營逐步轉(zhuǎn)型為市場經(jīng)濟。經(jīng)過三十多年的發(fā)展，我國經(jīng)濟增速迅猛，居民的生活水平以及消費水平逐漸提高，因此，消費信貸作為金融信貸品種之一，也開始成為消費者的借貸途徑之一。在這一大背景下，商業(yè)銀行作為個人消費信貸的主體開展了各種類型的個人消費信貸業(yè)務(wù)。除了商業(yè)銀行之外，其它金融機構(gòu)同樣在不斷開拓個人消費信貸市場，不斷進行金融創(chuàng)新。個人消費信貸的出現(xiàn)對于我國國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，保持國民經(jīng)濟的增速，推動消費的增長有著重要的意義，對于國民的經(jīng)濟生活影響深遠。雖然，個人消費信貸市場作為新興信貸品種在如火如荼地發(fā)展著，但是由于在個人消費信貸上面我國起步較晚，并且還沒有在消費理念、貸款種類以及信貸管控上形成完善的體系，所以在個人消費信貸市場當中存在許多風(fēng)險，例如市場風(fēng)險、信用風(fēng)險、利率風(fēng)險等等。而這些問題則需要在對個人消費信貸市場的現(xiàn)狀做出全面而準確的分析的基礎(chǔ)之上，針對問題的癥結(jié)提出相應(yīng)的準確對策，在實務(wù)操作當中對于個人消費信貸市場進行指導(dǎo)。青島市作為我國的地級市之一，在近些年個人消費信貸市場得到了充分的發(fā)展。青島市居民的消費理念已經(jīng)不同于以往，其發(fā)生了很大的改變。青島市居民的消費能力以及消費水平相對于十年之前也有了較大提高。因此，不論是從個人消費信貸的規(guī)模上還是從個人消費信貸在信貸市場中的比重上來看都是在不斷提高的。在青島市的個人消費信貸市場當中，主要以住房貸款、汽車貸款以及助學(xué)貸款為主。雖然個人消費信貸總體上是成增長的趨勢，但是筆者通過對于青島市的消費信貸數(shù)據(jù)進行深入研究之后發(fā)現(xiàn)，青島市個人消費信貸在近些年的增速實際上是逐漸緩慢的，尤其是2008年美國經(jīng)濟危機爆發(fā)之后，對我國的經(jīng)濟走勢也產(chǎn)生了很大影響，體現(xiàn)在青島市個人消費信貸市場上就是住房貸款、汽車貸款、助學(xué)貸款增長速度的下降甚至停滯。除了經(jīng)濟危機這一原因之外，汽車貸款以及助學(xué)貸款的違約率過高也是這一類個人消費信貸增速放緩的原因之一。除了近幾年青島市的消費信貸數(shù)據(jù)之外，筆者還對于青島市的個人消費信貸市場中的風(fēng)險管理的現(xiàn)狀進行了深入分析。從這些分析當中，筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)雖然青島市的個人消費信貸市場是在不斷地擴張的，但是現(xiàn)今的青島市個人消費信貸市場卻是問題重重，比如消費信貸機構(gòu)種類不多，消費信貸市場的體系很不完善，金融創(chuàng)新跟不上消費者的消費理念等等。于是基于青島市個人消費信貸市場當中存在的問題，筆者借鑒了國外個人消費信貸市場當中的經(jīng)驗，結(jié)合青島市自身個人消費信貸市場的具體實情，提出了對于青島市個人消費信貸市場應(yīng)對風(fēng)險的對策以及解決青島市個人消費信貸市場當中的問題的路徑。筆者認為，如要解決青島市個人信貸消費市場當中的問題應(yīng)當從建立消費者個人誠信檔案、政府對于個人消費信貸的加強、個人消費信貸保險制度的完善入手，建立更為規(guī)范的個人消費信貸市場體系，保證青島市個人消費信貸市場的良性發(fā)展。關(guān)鍵詞：個人消費；個人消費信貸市場；青島市；風(fēng)險管理Abstract: since reform and opening up in 1978, from a planned management gradually transition to a market economy in our country. After 30 years development, our country economic growth rapidly, people39。s living standard and consumption level gradually improve, therefore, as one of the varieties of financial credit, consumer credit began to bee one of the consumer lending way. In this big background, the mercial Banks as the main body of personal consumption credit has carried out various types of personal consumption credit business. In addition to mercial Banks and other financial institutions also continuously expand in personal consumption credit market, ongoing financial innovation. The emergence of personal consumption credit for the development of the national economy, maintain the growth of the national economy, promote the growth of consumption is of great significance, for had a profound impact on the national economic life. Although, personal consumption credit market as an emerging varieties of credit in the raging fire development, but due to the above personal consumption credit in our country started late, and not in consumption concept.In recent years, Qingdao as one of the prefecture, personal consumption credit market got fully development. Qingdao city residents39。 consumption concept is different from the past, the great changes have taken place. Qingdao city residents39。 consumption ability and consumption level relative to a decade ago have greater improvement. Therefore, whether from the scale of individual consumer credit or from personal consumption credit in terms of the proportion in the credit markets are rising. In the personal consumption credit market of Qingdao, mainly for housing loans, car loans and student loans. Although the personal consumption credit is a growing trend on the whole, but the author through to conduct the thorough research to the consumer credit data of Qingdao city after found that Qingdao personal consumption credit is actually gradually slow its growth in recent years, especially the United States in 2008 after the outbreak of the economic crisis, situation has also had a great influence on our country39。s economy, reflect on personal consumption credit market in Qingdao.In addition to consumer credit data of Qingdao city in recent years, the author also for personal consumption credit market in Qingdao present situation has carried on the thorough analysis of risk management. From these analysis, the author found that although Qingdao personal consumption credit markets are in constant expansion, but today39。s personal consumption credit market in Qingdao is fraught with problems, such as consumer credit agency lacked variety, consumer credit market system is not perfect, financial innovation to keep pace with consumer39。s consumption concept, and so on. Then based on the problems of personal consumption credit market, Qingdao city, the author draw lessons from the foreign experience of personal consumption credit market, on the basis of the truth of Qingdao city their own personal consumption credit market, put forward for Qingdao personal consumption credit market countermeasures against risks and solve the problem of Qingdao of personal consumption credit market of the path. The author thinks that, if want to solve the problem of Qingdao of personal credit consumption market should be from establishing the consumer.Key words: personal consumption。 Personal consumption credit market. Qingdao city。 Risk management目錄第一章 引言 5 5 6 7 8 8第二章 個人消費信貸風(fēng)險理論概述 9 9 9 10 11 個人消費信貸市場中的博弈分析 11 12 12第三章 青島市個人消費信貸市場及風(fēng)險管理現(xiàn)狀 13 13 13 16 16 17 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22第四章 國際個人消費信貸市場風(fēng)險管理的經(jīng)驗 23 23 23 24 25 26第五章 青島市個人消費信貸市場風(fēng)險管理評估 26 26 26 26 26 26 26第六章 應(yīng)對青島市個人消費信貸市場風(fēng)險的對策 26 26 26 27 27 27 27結(jié)論 27參考文獻 27第一章 引言近些年來，我國市場經(jīng)濟蓬勃發(fā)展，個人消費水平的提高使得個人消費信貸業(yè)務(wù)不斷增多，而個人消費信貸也從曾經(jīng)的新鮮事務(wù)逐漸變成了拉動我國消費的動力之一。個人消費作為我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的新亮點之一，也在不斷地被學(xué)界進行研究和探討。隨著2008年經(jīng)濟危機的到來，我國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展也受到了不小的沖擊。以往我國主要靠出口以及投資為驅(qū)動的經(jīng)濟需要向以國內(nèi)消費為主要動力的經(jīng)濟進行轉(zhuǎn)變，這就要求我國要改變曾經(jīng)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式，不斷擴大內(nèi)需激活國內(nèi)的消費市場。十八大報告中提到要以市場經(jīng)濟為基礎(chǔ)，使得財富不斷噴涌。結(jié)合當年中國的經(jīng)濟形勢以及我國的經(jīng)濟戰(zhàn)略來看，雖然我國的內(nèi)需不足，但是卻可以以個人消費信貸為支點撬動國內(nèi)消費的增長，從而激發(fā)出我國國內(nèi)消費需求的活力。雖然個人消費信貸是激活國內(nèi)需求的有效途徑之一，但是以我國信貸消費市場的實際情況來看，由于消費信貸業(yè)務(wù)是在近些年才開始開展的，所以我國的個人消費信貸研究還處于剛剛起步的初期階段。多項與個人消費信貸有關(guān)的基本制度還沒有規(guī)定完善，對于個人消費信貸的相關(guān)研究還停留在比較低端的水平，研究對象很大程度上只是停留在對于國外消費信貸市場的移植和套用上。在個人消費信貸市場的風(fēng)險防范以及預(yù)期判斷問題上，基本是由中國人民銀行也就是央行來進行的。中國人民銀行會定期通過對于消費信貸數(shù)據(jù)進行分析來對于市場的運營狀況進行評估，同時又通過分析得出的消費信貸市場當中可能存在的風(fēng)險提出風(fēng)險防控的建議，這在技術(shù)層面上對于商業(yè)銀行有效進行消費信貸的風(fēng)險防控以及對于消費信貸市場的走勢進行預(yù)測提供了可靠的支持。筆者在讀研期間長期關(guān)注個人消費信貸市場，并且有一定的商業(yè)銀行實務(wù)操作經(jīng)驗，所以將實踐同理論相互結(jié)合起來，對于筆者對個人消費信貸市場的見解進行梳理。把青島市作為主要的研究對象是因為相較于其它地級城市，青島