公司戰(zhàn)略和凈現(xiàn)值分析-在線瀏覽
2025-03-31 00:29本頁(yè)面
【正文】 it $1,188 Cash Flow $1,600 $1,588 ,3$)( 588,1$600,1$ 41???? ??t tNPVMcGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 88 Stewart Pharmaceutical: Decision to Test ? Let’s move back to the first stage, where the decision boils down to the simple question: should we invest? ? The expected payoff evaluated at date 1 is: ???????? ?????????? ?? failuregiv en PayofffailureProb.successgiv en PayoffsucessProb.payo ffExpected ? ? ? ?,2$0$,3$ xpected ????? $,2$000,1$ ????NPV? The NPV evaluated at date 0 is: So we should test. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 810 Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis In the Stewart Pharmaceutical example, revenues were projected to be $7,000,000 per year. If they are only $6,000,000 per year, the NPV falls to $1, Also known as ―what if‖ analysis。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 811 Sensitivity Analysis %,7$ 000,7$000,6$Rev% ?????? We can see that NPV is very sensitive to changes in revenues. For example, a 14% drop in revenue leads to a 61% drop in NPV %,3$ ,3$,1$% ????? NPV? For every 1% drop in revenue we can expect roughly a % drop in NPV %% ??McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 813 BreakEven Analysis ? Another way to examine variability in our forecasts is breakeven analysis. ? In the Stewart Pharmaceuticals example, we could be concerned with breakeven revenue, breakeven sales volume or breakeven price. ? The breakeven IATCF is given by: $1698 600,1$$)($600,1$041?????? ??IATC FIATC FNPVttMcGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 () $ = +VC+FC+D $5, Variable Costs (3,000) Fixed Costs (1,800) Depreciation (400) Pretax profit = 247。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 815 BreakEven Analysis ? Now that we have breakeven revenue as $5, million we can calculate breakeven price and sales volume. ? If the original plan was to generate revenues of $7,000 million by selling the cold cure at $10 per dose and selling 700 million doses per year, we can reach breakeven revenue with a sales volume of only: yearper millio n $10$,5$ volu mesaleseven Break volu me )sales(,5$????? We can reach breakeven revenue with a price of only: doseper $dosesmillio n 7 millio ,5$priceeven Break ??McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 817 Options ? Because corporations make decisions in a dynamic environment, they have options that should be considered in project valuation. ? The Option to Expand – Has value if demand turns out to be higher than expected. ? The Option to Abandon – Has value if demand turns out to be lower than expected. ? The
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