class7技術(shù)-2風(fēng)險分析的方法體系-展示頁
2025-03-14 06:13本頁面
【正文】 ty of risk events ? The probability of risk events using subjective probability analysis ? Analogy is used to derive the probability of risk events 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 Using the existing data analysis risk event probability distribution ? Case: the emergence of construction period delay risk probability calculation ? A construction pany in the past to plete 72 construction projects, due to various reasons, some part of the project has delayed time limit for a project. Dragged project time limit for a project, arrange them get situation as shown in the table. The time limit for a project in the table are the relative value of delay time。t respect contract, no respect for the rights and interests of the contractor X5: project payment does not reach the designated position or settlement in a timely manner From the owner39。s risk From the contractor39。管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 The Tools and Methodologies of Risk Analysis 工程項目風(fēng)險管理與保險 雙語課 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 Contents of Risk Analysis ? Analysis of risk events evolution。 ? Risk Evaluation for : Ⅰ occurring probability of risk events, Ⅱ varied possible risk consequences, Ⅲ and their conditional probabilities given original event occurring. 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 Analysis of risk event evolution ? Fault Tree Analysis (FTA, 故障樹 ) ? Event Tree Analysis（ ETA，事件樹） 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 What is a fault tree ？ Is a special kind of inverted tree logic causality diagram, it USES event symbols, transfer of logic gate signs and symbols to describe a causeandeffect relationship between various events in the system. Logic gate input output events \because\, logic gate output is the input events \fruit\. 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 name symbol Causal relationship With the door Input all events occur at the same time have a output Or gate The input as long as there is an event occurs that is output The forbidden door
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