class7技術-2風險分析的方法體系(完整版)
【正文】 y 3 months, shall be calculated on the following steps ： ① 3/16 100%=% ② From the table or figure can check the construction period delay is the probability that 3 months %。管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 The Tools and Methodologies of Risk Analysis 工程項目風險管理與保險 雙語課 管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 Contents of Risk Analysis ? Analysis of risk events evolution。 管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 Theory of probability distribution is used to determine the probability of risk events ? Case study: ? Quality data are volatile, the factor is caused by many factors, and under the condition of normal production, the role of each factor is not obvious, and there is no one factor plays a leading role. So the fluctuations ? Normal distribution. ? In the construction of water conservancy projects, many hydrology workers study of river flood peak flow of randomness, found that most of the rivers obeyed ? P Ⅲ type distribution. 管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 The probability of risk events using subjective probability analysis ? Case study: ? A project is divided into five standard, itemized bid, a bidder intends to participate in one of the bid, assume that a bidder the winning probability is different for each target, namely not the bidding risk is different. Bidders please four expert of bidding risk analysis, evaluation for which standard can bid more, less risky or miss the mark. ? Experts on the risk of not winning from small to large, the result of the discharge sequence as shown in table tendering decision makers for the experts39。 管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 發(fā)生的 條件概率公式 為： 11AA PPP（ B ）（ /B ） =（ B ）表示在一個樣本空間中的兩個事件，給定 1AB和 下， 1AB和 的 聯(lián)合概率公式 為： 1 1 1A A AP P P（ B ） = （ ） （ B/ ）Bayes Methods貝葉斯定理 管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 中的一個出現(xiàn)是事件 構(gòu)成互斥和完整的兩事件， 1A2和 概率的 邊際概率公式 為： 1 1 2 2A A A AP P P P P（ B ） = （ ） （ B/ ） + （ ） （ B/ ）1A2和 若 B發(fā)生的必要條件，那么事件 B回總目錄 回本章目錄 Bayes Methods貝葉斯定理 管理科學與工程專業(yè)適用 中的一個出現(xiàn)是事件 構(gòu)成互斥和完整的兩個事
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