【正文】 y institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 9第二章重點公司推薦 10天津港 : 審慎推薦天津港是我們推薦的港口類股票的首選? 腹地經(jīng)濟發(fā)展將帶來貨源支持 ? 集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)的快速發(fā)展加快公司的業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)型 ? 資產(chǎn)注入將進(jìn)一步提高盈利水平 ? 天津港區(qū)發(fā)展空間巨大? 估值分析 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 11天津港： 腹地省份 GDP將實現(xiàn)快于全國平均水平的增長資料來源 : CEIC,中金公司研究部? 天津港直接經(jīng)濟腹地占全國面積的%。因此，珠江三角洲、長江三角洲以及環(huán)渤海地區(qū)仍是中國港口發(fā)展的主要地區(qū)。? 中國政府鼓勵高附加值機械產(chǎn)品的發(fā)展，這有望推升港口吞吐量。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 7增值稅退稅調(diào)整影響不大 ? 機械和運輸設(shè)備在中國的出口中占主要部分。? 2023年，中國集裝箱吞吐量達(dá) 9,300萬 TEU ，我們預(yù)計明年將升至 TEU，到 2023年底將接近設(shè)計吞吐能力。? 我們估計未來三年，中國港口集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)年復(fù)合增長率將達(dá) 20%。? 中國的出口結(jié)構(gòu)繼續(xù)升級。資料來源 : CEIC, 中金公司研究部This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 4集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)最為強勁資料來源 : 中金公司研究部 ,中國航貿(mào)網(wǎng)在港口業(yè)務(wù)中 ,今年上半年集裝箱吞吐量創(chuàng)下 % 的同比升幅 ,較上年同期的增速高 點 ,在所有港口業(yè)務(wù)中居首。蒸蒸日上的中國港口業(yè) 分析員 :鄭棟2023年 8月 12日1內(nèi)容提要? 第一章 行業(yè)基本面回顧? 第二章 重點公司推薦2第一章行業(yè)基本面回顧3吞吐量大增 . GDP和外貿(mào)增長是主要動力 ? 今年上半年國內(nèi)主要港口的吞吐量同比上升 %,增幅較上年同期略低 2個百分點。? 上半年中國 GDP增長 %,外貿(mào)增長%, 成為港口吞吐量上升的最重要動力。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 5集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)增長的動力 :外貿(mào)增長 ,出口升級及運輸集裝箱化率的提升資料來源 : CEIC, 遼寧師大 ,中金公司研究部 ? 我們的宏觀分析小組預(yù)計今明兩年外貿(mào)將分別增長 26%和 20%。? 中國的集裝箱化率遠(yuǎn)低于國際同業(yè)。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 6短期內(nèi)無須擔(dān)憂港口吞吐能力過剩? 據(jù)交通部規(guī)劃，到 2023年中國將擁有 377個集裝箱泊位 ,總設(shè)計吞吐能力為 TEU。? 未來四年強勁的需求應(yīng)會緩沖持續(xù)擴容壓力，極大緩解吞吐能力過剩的擔(dān)憂。? 近期的增值稅退稅調(diào)整對這部分的影響甚微，調(diào)整后其退稅率仍高達(dá)911%， 居于首位。資料來源 : CEIC, 中金公司研究部This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities