【正文】 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 資料來(lái)源 :公司數(shù)據(jù) ,中金公司研究部注： *為 2023年股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整后控股比例深圳西部港區(qū)股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)圖26深赤灣： 07年上半年業(yè)績(jī)展望資料來(lái)源 :公司數(shù)據(jù) ,中金公司研究部This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 27中國(guó)鐵路行業(yè)分析 分析員 :鄭棟2023年 8月 12日28目錄? 第一章 行業(yè)基本面回顧? 第二章 重點(diǎn)公司推薦 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 29第一章行業(yè)基本面回顧30? 我國(guó)經(jīng)營(yíng)性鐵路可分為國(guó)家鐵路、地方鐵路和合資鐵路，截至 2023年，營(yíng)業(yè)里程分別占全國(guó)鐵路營(yíng)業(yè)里程的%, %及%。? 投資青島港的可能或?qū)O大提高上市公司的成長(zhǎng)潛能。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 17天津港： 天津港區(qū)發(fā)展空間巨大資料來(lái)源 : 公司數(shù)據(jù)，中金公司研究部? 東疆港區(qū)：東疆港區(qū)占地約30平方公里，其中 10平方公里的地區(qū)為東疆保稅港區(qū)，是我國(guó)目前規(guī)模最大的保稅港區(qū)。 ? “十五 ”期間，天津港腹地省份 GDP增長(zhǎng)率均快于全國(guó)平均水平。? 上半年中國(guó) GDP增長(zhǎng) %,外貿(mào)增長(zhǎng)%, 成為港口吞吐量上升的最重要?jiǎng)恿?。因此，珠江三角洲、長(zhǎng)江三角洲以及環(huán)渤海地區(qū)仍是中國(guó)港口發(fā)展的主要地區(qū)。 ? 于天津港區(qū)集裝箱吞吐量的市場(chǎng)份額將由 2023年的 47%上升 6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至 2023年的 53%。? 考慮港區(qū)未來(lái)的發(fā)展及 A、 H股整合帶來(lái)的投資機(jī)會(huì)，我們認(rèn)為天津港仍具較高的投資價(jià)值。? 招商局國(guó)際年中完成了對(duì)蛇口港區(qū)股權(quán)的整合。 ? 主要干線運(yùn)輸能力緊張 ，西部地區(qū)鐵路運(yùn)輸能力不足。? 長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，招商局國(guó)際對(duì)深圳西部港區(qū)的股權(quán)整合有望給深赤灣帶來(lái)進(jìn)一步的投資機(jī)會(huì)。預(yù)計(jì)到 2023年，臨港工業(yè)區(qū)將實(shí)現(xiàn)銷(xiāo)售收入 1000億元， GDP達(dá)到 300億元以上。? 口岸進(jìn)出口總值相對(duì)腹地 GDP的彈性由 2023年的 2023年的。? 中國(guó)的出口結(jié)構(gòu)繼續(xù)升級(jí)。? 近期的增值稅退稅調(diào)整對(duì)這部分的影響甚微，調(diào)整后其退稅率仍高達(dá)911%， 居于首位。? 需求的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)亦將極大減少天津港股份與天津港發(fā)展的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。? 我們判斷在集團(tuán)主要資產(chǎn)注入完成之后， A、 H股整合將有可能被提上議事日程。? 管理層表示該投資仍在商談中，尚未簽定任何意向書(shū)或協(xié)議。? 1995年至 2023年全國(guó)鐵路營(yíng)業(yè)里程年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率僅為%，明顯落后于公路的建設(shè)速度與GDP增長(zhǎng)速度。? 根據(jù) 8月 10日的收盤(pán)價(jià) ,公司今年股息收益率較鹽田港高出的 ，是天津港的 。? 注資完成之后天津港股份經(jīng)營(yíng)資產(chǎn)所涉及的面積僅為 ，而光南疆散雜貨物流中心面積就有 13平方公里左右，臨港工業(yè)區(qū)的面積更是與現(xiàn)有經(jīng)營(yíng)性資產(chǎn)的面積不在一個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)。 ? 天津口岸進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)對(duì)于集裝箱吞吐量的影響以正面為主。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 6短期內(nèi)無(wú)須擔(dān)憂港口吞吐能力過(guò)剩? 據(jù)交通部規(guī)劃，到 2023年中國(guó)將擁有 377個(gè)集裝箱泊位 ,總設(shè)計(jì)吞吐能力為 TEU。? 2023年，中國(guó)集裝箱吞吐量達(dá) 9,300萬(wàn) TEU ，我們預(yù)計(jì)明年將升至 TEU，到 2023年底將接近設(shè)計(jì)吞吐能力。?