【正文】 .......................................................182．電信消費(fèi)需求形成三大層次 ............................................................192 / 643．縮小電信發(fā)展差距地有利因素 ........................................................194．對我國電信發(fā)展的啟示 ....................................................................20二、全球電信市場預(yù)測 ..................................................................................20（一）全球電信市場總規(guī)模（電信業(yè)務(wù)總收入）和發(fā)展速度 ..............20（二）主要電信業(yè)務(wù)的用戶規(guī)模和發(fā)展 ..................................................211．固定電話業(yè)務(wù) ....................................................................................212．移動(dòng)電話業(yè)務(wù) ....................................................................................213．互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù) ........................................................................................22三、國內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境 ..................................................................................22（一）經(jīng)濟(jì)保持穩(wěn)定增長 ..........................................................................22（二）持續(xù)培育擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需 ..........................................................................22四、電信技術(shù)發(fā)展環(huán)境 ..................................................................................23（一）傳統(tǒng)電路交換逐步轉(zhuǎn)向 IP 于電路交換相結(jié)合 ............................23（二）寬帶技術(shù)使得通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳輸容量和性能飛速提高 ......................23（三）第三代移動(dòng)通信系統(tǒng)技術(shù)逐步走向成熟 ......................................24（四）三網(wǎng)融合 ..........................................................................................24五、國內(nèi)電信市場環(huán)境 ..................................................................................24（一）市場需求持續(xù)擴(kuò)大，并向多層次和個(gè)性化發(fā)展 ..........................24（二）地區(qū)間的電信發(fā)展不平衡狀況將有所緩解和改善 ......................25（三）我國電信市場的競爭將更趨充分和規(guī)范 ......................................25六、電信政策法規(guī)環(huán)境 ..................................................................................26（一）電信法規(guī)體系不斷完善 ..................................................................26（二）行業(yè)監(jiān)管機(jī)制繼續(xù)加強(qiáng) ..................................................................26七、電信投融資環(huán)境 ......................................................................................27（一）國內(nèi)資本市場不斷走向成熟，改善了電信業(yè)的融資環(huán)境 ..........27（二）國際資本市場行情變化對電信企業(yè)海外投融資產(chǎn)生影響 ..........27（三）積極吸引外資成為實(shí)現(xiàn)我國電信大發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)融資渠道 ..........28八、入世后電信開放環(huán)境 ..............................................................................28（一）外資進(jìn)入的領(lǐng)域 ..............................................................................283 / 64（二）外資進(jìn)入方式 ..................................................................................28第三章 2022－2022 年國內(nèi)電信發(fā)展預(yù)測 .....................................................30一、2022－2022 年全國電信業(yè)總體發(fā)展趨勢預(yù)測 .....................................30（一）全國電信業(yè)務(wù)收入（電信市場總規(guī)模）指標(biāo)預(yù)測 ......................30（二）年人均體系消費(fèi)水平預(yù)測 ..............................................................31（三）電信業(yè)對我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)預(yù)測 ..................................................32（四）電信業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模與重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域 ..........................................32（五）電信固定資產(chǎn)投資效益 ..................................................................34（六）國內(nèi)電信市場未來發(fā)展趨勢 ..........................................................341．市場格局重新組合 ............................................................................342．電信業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)改變 ............................................................................343．電信業(yè)務(wù)需求轉(zhuǎn)變 ............................................................................354．地區(qū)電信差距逐步縮小 ....................................................................35（七）中國與全球電信運(yùn)營市場發(fā)展的比較 ..........................................35二、電信業(yè)主要領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展 ..........................................................................37（一）固定電話 ..........................................................................................381．固定電話發(fā)展總體預(yù)測 ....................................................................382．技術(shù)走勢 ............................................................................................403．業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展策略 ....................................................................................40（二）移動(dòng)通信 ..........................................................................................411．移動(dòng)通信發(fā)展總體預(yù)測 ....................................................................412．技術(shù)走勢 ............................................................................................423．業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展策略 ....................................................................................424．行業(yè)監(jiān)管措施 ....................................................................................43（三）互聯(lián)網(wǎng) ..............................................................................................441．互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展總體預(yù)測 ........................................................................44 ...............................................................................................463．業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展策略 ....................................................................................474．行業(yè)監(jiān)管措施 ....................................................................................484 / 64（四）傳輸網(wǎng) ..............................................................................................491．光傳輸網(wǎng)發(fā)展總體預(yù)測 ....................................................................492．光通信技術(shù)走勢 ................................................................................493．我國長途光傳輸網(wǎng)發(fā)展思路 ............................................................514．長途光傳輸網(wǎng)行業(yè)監(jiān)管措施 ............................................................52三、未來五年預(yù)測指標(biāo)語“十五”計(jì)劃目標(biāo)的比較 ..................................53（一）電信業(yè)務(wù)收入增長速度有明顯下降 ..............................................53（二）移動(dòng)電話用戶規(guī)模有較大幅度的增加 ..........................................54第四章 行業(yè)管理與改革 ..................................................................................55一、加強(qiáng)電信法制建設(shè) ..................................................................................55（一）我國電信法起草地進(jìn)程和主要情況 ..............................................55（二）在電信法出臺前繼續(xù)制定完善有關(guān)法規(guī)政策 ..............................55二、改進(jìn)完善行業(yè)管理機(jī)構(gòu) ......................................................