【正文】 善城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平，使城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展，那么這一時(shí)期的金融發(fā)展更是一種促進(jìn)。研究顯示，金融業(yè)對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的影響是多方面的。因此，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的金融發(fā)展，必須要健全和完善金融結(jié)構(gòu)。這是由于不同行業(yè)之間的價(jià)格機(jī)制使然。張杰［9］(1994)認(rèn)為劉易斯［8］的城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化研究模型有些許不足：對(duì)非農(nóng)業(yè)部門和農(nóng)業(yè)部門的資源需求和產(chǎn)生了解不夠，也不了解金融發(fā)展在資源分配中的作用。他的分析結(jié)論表明，金融繁榮對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化有著極強(qiáng)的作用， 中印在1980年前的城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平很低，很大原因是這些國家的金融發(fā)展程度很低，尤其是農(nóng)村金融體系不健全和結(jié)構(gòu)不完善。他認(rèn)為信用機(jī)制不全面是影響有效需求的主要因素，而利率機(jī)制對(duì)金融中介機(jī)構(gòu)不敏感，是信貸市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的主要表現(xiàn)。由于發(fā)展中國家的資源嚴(yán)重不足，資源的供應(yīng)小于資源需求，就算沒有金融壓制，在只有少數(shù)人或企業(yè)能夠獲得資源的況狀下，資源的分配不均會(huì)導(dǎo)致二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)更加明顯。但他的模式有一個(gè)缺點(diǎn)，就是如果資源以簡單的方式投資于資本收益率的選擇，那么就應(yīng)該把重點(diǎn)放在發(fā)展工業(yè)上，以犧牲農(nóng)業(yè)為代價(jià)，這勢(shì)必導(dǎo)致發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的不平衡?；谏鐣?huì)資源有限的背景，他提出要完善金融機(jī)構(gòu)的投資和儲(chǔ)蓄分配體系，幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)資本從生產(chǎn)能力低的產(chǎn)業(yè)到生產(chǎn)能力高的產(chǎn)業(yè)，能提高整個(gè)社會(huì)的效率和質(zhì)量。企業(yè)和家庭完全分離，土地，勞動(dòng)力，資本和產(chǎn)品對(duì)于企業(yè)和家庭價(jià)格不同，而且生產(chǎn)技術(shù)水平也不一樣。 金融抑制與二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的研究述評(píng)麥金農(nóng)［3］是分析城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和金融發(fā)展關(guān)系的專家。 城鄉(xiāng)一體化的研究綜述城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和金融發(fā)展的關(guān)聯(lián)是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和金融學(xué)的一個(gè)重要研究內(nèi)容。作為一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)大省、糧食大省的安徽來說，盡管最近一些年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展很快，可城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平還處于初級(jí)階段，如何促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)和城鄉(xiāng)一體化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，事關(guān)安徽經(jīng)濟(jì)更快更好發(fā)展的進(jìn)程。因?yàn)樽匀缓蜕鐣?huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)背景不同，我國不同地區(qū)的現(xiàn)實(shí)差異非常大。在號(hào)召協(xié)調(diào)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的黨的十六大報(bào)告后，黨的十七大報(bào)告又號(hào)召實(shí)現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化發(fā)展，十七屆三中全會(huì)再次提到促進(jìn)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)加快增長的基本要求是盡快實(shí)現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化。由于一定的時(shí)代條件，造成了城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)狀況，影響城鄉(xiāng)融合，阻礙了城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展，不僅影響了農(nóng)村的發(fā)展，而且妨礙了城市的發(fā)展。縮小城鄉(xiāng)各方面差距是城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的最終目的［1］。s urban and rural economic integration level, improve the rural financial service structure can be a good improvement of urban and rural economic structure of two yuan. The analysis shows that the level of urban and rural economic integration and the financial development of Anhui have a co integration relationship. Unbalanced financial development, that is, the low level of rural financial development, the development of the city39。s rapid economic growth, but the level of urban and rural economic integration has not been improved. In this paper, the importance of the integration of urban and rural economy is emphasized by the relevant scholars39。關(guān)鍵詞：金融發(fā)展，二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)，城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，安徽省 Abstract Coordinated development of urban and rural areas is an important part of the 12th Five Year Plan, the key and the eighteen session of the fifth plenary session to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, promote the strategic deployment of coordinated economic and social development, and further highlights the coordinated development of urban and rural areas will bee the core of the thirteen five period of development. The urbanrural economic integration is an important embodiment of the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, but also an important process of balanced development of urban and rural areas, since 1990s, the rapid growth of Anhui39。金融發(fā)展的擴(kuò)散結(jié)果小于核心城市群結(jié)果，金融不均衡發(fā)展反作用于城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化發(fā)展。也就是，城鄉(xiāng)金融體系不均衡，將導(dǎo)致二元的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)更加嚴(yán)重，降低安徽省城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平及制約城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化發(fā)展進(jìn)程。分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，安徽城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平和金融發(fā)展有協(xié)整關(guān)系。通過對(duì)當(dāng)前的形勢(shì)總結(jié)和實(shí)證研究，對(duì)相關(guān)部門研究安徽省城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的思路提供參考。本文通過對(duì)相關(guān)學(xué)者觀點(diǎn)研究，強(qiáng)調(diào)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的重要性。金融發(fā)展的早期理論主要分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與金融興盛之間的關(guān)系，可這無法代表城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平。摘要城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是“十二五”規(guī)劃中主要內(nèi)容之一，而十八屆五中全會(huì)提出的重點(diǎn)促進(jìn)城鄉(xiāng)區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略部署，進(jìn)一步凸顯了城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展將成為十三五時(shí)期發(fā)展的核心之一。而城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化是城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的重要體現(xiàn)，也是城鄉(xiāng)均衡發(fā)展的重要過程，從20世紀(jì)90年代以來安徽經(jīng)濟(jì)在快速增長的同時(shí)，城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)卻日益凸現(xiàn)。雖然中國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長，但城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平?jīng)]有得到改善。梳理了安徽省金融興盛的機(jī)制，然后研究了邊際資本產(chǎn)出、金融發(fā)展效率、金融發(fā)展規(guī)模與城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平的作用。利用實(shí)證分析方法分析安徽省的城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平，可得結(jié)論：金融的不協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展會(huì)反作用于安徽省的城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平，健全農(nóng)村金融服務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)可以很好的改善城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)二元結(jié)構(gòu)。不均衡的金融發(fā)展，即農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展水平低下，城市金融業(yè)發(fā)展更為發(fā)達(dá)，不利于城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展。安徽這種以城市的金融興盛、金融結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張，而農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的速度和結(jié)構(gòu)相對(duì)下降金融體系。如果這種趨勢(shì)持續(xù)下去，將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大城鄉(xiāng)差距，降低經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的總體實(shí)力，阻礙安徽經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程。s economy, urban and rural economic development is increasingly prominent. The early theory of financial development mainly analyzes the relationship between economic development and financial prosperity, but it can not represent the level of urban and rural economic integration. Although China39。 views. The mechanism of financial prosperity in Anhui province is studied, and the effects of marginal capital output, the efficiency of financial development, the scale of financial development and the level of economic integration of urban and rural areas are studied. Through the current situation summary and empirical research, the relevant departments to study the integration of urban and rural economy in Anhui province. Using empirical analysis method to analyze the level of urban and rural economic integration in Anhui Province, it can be concluded that: the development of financial coordination in Anhui province39。s financial industry is more developed, is not conducive to the development of urban and rural economic integration. That is, the urban and rural financial system is not balanced, will lead to more serious economic structure of two yuan, reducing the level of urban and rural economic integration in Anhui province. This shows that the financial system of Anhui is the most important in the city. Financial structure continues to expand, but the proportion of rural finance in the fall. The results of financial development are less than the core city group, and the development of financial imbalance is the opposite of the development of urban and rural economic integration. If the situation continues, it will further expand the gap between urban and rural areas, and reduce the overall strength of economic development. Key words: financial development, two yuan economic structure, urban and rural economic integration, Anhui Province39 / 46 目 錄摘要 IAbstract II第一章 導(dǎo)論 1 1 城鄉(xiāng)一體化的研究綜述 1 金融抑制與二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的研究述評(píng) 1 2 金融發(fā)展與二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析 3 簡要評(píng)述 4 主要內(nèi)容 5 可能的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) 5第2章 金融發(fā)展與城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的相關(guān)理論回顧 5 主要的金融發(fā)展理論 6 戈德史密斯的金融發(fā)展理論［21］ 6 金融抑制和金融深化理論 6 赫爾曼及斯蒂格利茨的理論 7 城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的理論 8 空想社會(huì)主義者的烏托邦思想 8 霍華德的田園城市理論［25］ 8 馬克思主義的城鄉(xiāng)融合理論［26］ 8 芒福德的城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展觀［27］ 8 麥基的城鄉(xiāng)一體化思想［28］ 9 城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和金融發(fā)展的影響機(jī)制理論 9 金融發(fā)展對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的作用 9 金融發(fā)展對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的影響 10 金融發(fā)展對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的作用 10第 3 章 金融發(fā)展對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平的作用機(jī)制分析 10 城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平和金融發(fā)展的概念與度量 10 金融發(fā)展的概念與指標(biāo)衡量 10 量化分析安徽省城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平 11 金融發(fā)展影響城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平的機(jī)制分析 13 金融發(fā)展促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化 13 15第 4 章 安徽省城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化與金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀 16 安徽省金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀 16 安徽省目前城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平 18第 5 章 安徽省金融發(fā)展影響城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化水平的實(shí)證分析 21 指標(biāo)構(gòu)建以及數(shù)據(jù)選取 22 變量、模型選擇 22 統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)來源 22 實(shí)證分析過程 22 變量平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)——ADF 檢驗(yàn) 23 Johansen 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 24 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn) 26 實(shí)證分析結(jié)論 28第 6 章 政策建議 29 結(jié)論 29 政策建議 30 加快農(nóng)村金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè) 30 30 31 32參考文獻(xiàn) 33致謝 36第一章 導(dǎo)論城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化是實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和文化等綜合統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展。城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展，將現(xiàn)代服務(wù)全體共有，所有人都