【正文】 862483830 2502040608010001 03 04 05 06 02 01020304050% 00 100 00 02 03 04 05 06 01 10% Lines 15 presentationCEMSx A further decrease of car prices is predictable 100 200 400 800 1,600 3,200 100 150 200 250 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 20xx Price [RMB ?000] Until 20xx price will be below RMB 80,000 20xx =120,000RMB Cumulated Production Source: RB calculation, Volkswagen production figures Volume [?000] Example: VWSantana GLS Slope 19% Lines 16 presentationCEMSx Small scale production is a mayor reason for the low efficiency and profitability of Chinas car manufactures 4 3 . 0 %1 9 . 7 %1 4 . 3 %9 . 3 %8 . 2 %6 . 3 %3 . 7 %1 . 9 %1997 1998 1999 20xx VW Santana VW Santana 231 TAIC Daihatsu 100 VW Jetta 76 Chongqing Suzuki 50 Dongfeng Citroen 40 Others Buick 20 Guangzhou Honda 10 Source: China Infobank Market share of car manufactures 1999 [production in 1000 units] 50 40 30 49 40 35 550 Market Share % Lines 17 presentationCEMSx 050100150200250300350400TAIC Charade 20xx Nanya Palio Yunque Changan Lingyang Changhe Qinchuan Zhonghua Changan Alto TAIC Charade Geely Haoqing Retail price [1,000 RMB] Engine [l] Mini Standard (Economy) Lowermedium Highend Qinchuan Xiaofuxin Existing models and new launches, 20xx Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Upper medium : New launches Existing model This development trend has been anticipated by carmakers through new product launches BMW 3 series SAW Bluebird Brilliance Zhonghua Honda Accord VW Audi A6 Turbo VW Passat Citroen Picasso Mazda Premacy VW Santana 20xx Citroen EM VW Bora VW Jetta Renault Scenic Dingo Ford Ikon VW Santana GL GM Sail SAIC Cherry Yuejin Encore/ unique VW Polo Citroen DC KIA Pride Toyota Vitz Geely Toyota Platz FAW Red Flag GM Buick Honda Accord VW Audi A6 Lines 18 presentationCEMSx Installed capacity and its enlargement for passenger car [1?000 units] Installed Capacity Production (20xx) Utilization (%) Planned Enlargement (yr) Model – Santana – Passat – Polo – Jetta – Audi A6 – Bora – Citroen – Alto – Accord – Buick – Sail (pact car) – Vitz/Yaris – Daihatsu Charade – Premacy (minivan) – Ikon – Cherokee – Geely – Cherry – Encore/Unique – Palio – Red Flag – BMW 3 or 5 series – Zhonghua VW Peugjeot Suzuki Honda GM Toyota Mazda Ford Daimller Chrysler Jili SAIC Nanya FAW BMW Brilliance Total Product Site – Shanghai (SVW) – Shanghai (SVW) – Shanghai (SVW) – Changchun (FAW) – Changchun (FAW) – Changchun (FAW) – Wuhan – Chongqin (CMC) – Guangzhou – Shanghai (SGM) – Shanghai (SGM) – Tianjin (TAIC) – Tianjin – Hainan (FAW) – Chongqing (Chang’an MC) – Beijing – Zhejiang – Anhui – Nanjing – Changchun – Shenyang – Shenyang 300 60 0 150 30 0 120 80 30 100 0 0 150 100 100 60 60 50 20 0 30 ca. 1,440 250 30 0 90 17 0 54 53 30 30 0 0 82 5 7 0 5 0 13 0 0 678 83% 50% 60% 57% 45% 66% 100% 30% 55% 5% 7% 8% 65% 50% 40(03) 100(02) 50(05) 50(02) 20(01) 30(02) 20(04) 50(02) 40 +400 OEMSource: China Automotive Industry yearbook, Automotive Industry of China The average capacity utilization is below 50%, and an additional capacity buildup is planned Lines 19 presentationCEMSx 1 For small scale carmanufacturers, it will bee even harder to reach the breakeven point unless they do not gain market share Today and in 5 years (WTO impact) Source: RB estimates Cost/revenues in RMB Revenues (3050%) price decrease Variable cost (2030%) lower ponent prices Fixed cost (177。 Partners。 Textile Lines 23 presentationCEMSx The WTO agreement will open the developed markets to apparel and textile imports from China Tariff reduction Successive increase of quota until abolishment Safeguards against sudden trading imbalances ? China lowers average import tariffs from to % ? Developed countries lower their import tariffs accordingly ? Phasing out of import quotas of other WTOmembers until 20xx ? Phasing out of export quotas of China ? Antidumping regulations ? Safeguard mechanisms in case of sudden imbalances Lines 24 presentationCEMSx The quota will be gradually abolished Quota abolishment Explanation Source: ATC, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Timetable quota abolishment Stage Implementation date Minimum integration rate Additional growth rate 1 2 3 4 1. Jan, 1995 1. Jan, 1998 1. Jan, 20xx 1. Jan, 20xx 16% 17% 18% 16% 25% 27% Full integration of textile and apparel quota ? Integration means removal of textile and apparel products from quota coverage thus to be integrated into the ATC (agreement of textile and apparel) ? Additional growth rate refers to the requirement of ATC to ask WTO members to increase the quota growth rate for major supplying countries. The methodology is to add an annual additional growth rate on the historical quota growth rate. Lines 25 presentationCEMSx 46%32%9%13%Sourcing structure of major importing countries 1999 [%] 20%43%16%9%13% 70%50%30%14%12%14%9%USA EU Japan Others Others Eastern Europe Europe (Esp. Turkey) China Rest of Asia1) Others Others The Americas China Rest of Asia1) Rest of Asia1) China EU USA J