【正文】 CEMS Universities in St. Gallen, Stockholm, Bergen, Milano November, 20xx Lines 2 presentationCEMSx Content Page A. The macroeconomic impact of China?s WTO entry 3 B. Automotive 11 C. Apparel amp。 Textile 22 D. Pharmaceuticals 36 E. Banking 42 F. Securities and Asset Management 48 G. Insurances 52 3 presentationCEMSx A. The macroeconomic impact of China?s WTO entry Lines 4 presentationCEMSx Already the tariffs have e down considerably in the last decade but they still differ strongly between industries Weighted average tariff rates of manufactured products Weighted average tariffs with and without WTO accession Source: World Bank, 1999 4 6 . 5444 0 . 62 3 . 21 7 . 8 1 8 . 5051015202530354045501992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Oilseeds Meat amp。 tobacco Textiles Apparel Wood amp。 export ? Accelerated growth of GDP ? Accelerated growth of ine (EDP/cap.) and wealth/cap ? More foreign investment ? Employment increase/decrease ? Structural change towards more petitiveness Lines 6 presentationCEMSx Trading short term pain against long term gain is a walk on the wire Short term pain Long term gain Source: Dev. amp。 quality petition ? Decrease of profit margins ? Increase in bankruptcies ? 1% additional growth . ? 34% until 20xx ? High loss of labor/jobs in some industries (. agriculture, automotive), but new jobs created in other industries(. apparel) ? Increase of skilled labor ? Ruralurban discrepancy in wealth and ine (+% . / % .) ? % additional GDP/cap . 60% of population 6000 USD ine by 20xx ? % additional export growth . ? % additional import growth . ? 50bn annually Lines 7 presentationCEMSx The macroeconomic impact of China?s accession to the WTO will be especially strong in apparel, automobiles and electronics Some categories as example Without accession With accession Without accession With accession Without accession With accession Foodgrains Other agriculture Beverages/tobacco Extractive industries Textiles Wearing apparel Petrochemicals Metals Automobiles Electronics Utilities Trade/transport Total Table 10. Output, Exports and Imports as a Share of the World Economy Output Exports Imports 1995 20xx 1995 20xx 1995 20xx Source:, World Bank analysis 20xx Lines 8 presentationCEMSx With some dramatic consequences for employment (1) Source: World Bank and Dev. Res. Ctr. of the State Council Employment of skilled labor growth: 1995~20xx Foodgrains Meat amp。 Textile CoHon Wheat Rice Automotive Lines 10 presentationCEMSx Elect. media tele Media publishers 1) Fast moving consumer goods HIGH MEDIUM LOW Low High Low High Degree of globalization Protectionist barriers today Construction Pharmaceuticals Consumer electronics/ durables Branded FMCG1) ( . Coke) Apparel Automotive Agricultural products Transportation Commodity steel Protectionist barriers Tariffs in % Quota licenses Investment restrictions equity regional Degree of globalization Market share of global brands Production relocation costs in % of total turnover Domestic panies in global industries which enjoyed high protection will suffer most Impact 11 presentationCEMSx B. Automotive Lines 12 presentationCEMSx In the year 20xx China will be the largest truck market in Asia and passenger car demand will have grown to cars 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx hi price mid price low price +10% . +14% . 640 960 1,650 150 150 250 +0% . +10% . heavy medium light Source: Daimler Chrysler, RBP assumptions 130 210 500 430 650 1,000 80 100 150 Passenger cars Trucks Lines 13 presentationCEMSx Source: China Passenger Car Prospect 20xx, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Santana1) Jetta1) 31%26%24%25%38%31%9%15%23%28%17%18%18%22%30%35%34%0%10%20%30%40%1996 1997 1998 1999 20xx24%17%13%38%8%49%46%39%46%38%36%45%45%40%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1996 1997 1998 1999 20xxTotal sales volume by user, 20xx Government cars Business cars Private cars Taxi Taxi Business cars Private cars 1): Santana and Jetta make up for 50% of passenger cars in 20xx In % of total In % of total Private buyers are being the ultimate market driver Lines 14 presentationCEMSx The contracted cuts in duties and of nontariff barriers are considerable Reduction of tariffs Abolishment of nontariff barriers ? Immediate increase of import quotas to 6 bn US$, growing +15% until elimination in 20xx ? Abolishment of special taxes and license system for imported cars ? Abolishment of “index” system and any restrictions in preduct policy (type, category model) two years after accession ? Abolishment of local content restrictions ? Abolishment of any restrictions to operate an own sales and maintenance work from 20xx onwards ? Abolishment of foreign ownership restrictions and value level for automotive JV’s to be approved will increase from 30 mil US$ to 150 mil US$ ? Introduction of financing options, . leasing, operated by foreign nonbank institutions under Chinese regulations upon accession Source: USChamber of Commerce Carmanufacturers Component suppliers 7