【正文】
iling clause by 30%. Therefore, careful selection for a ceiling can significantly reduce the impact of the ceiling clause. The ceiling clause, in essence, is a call option that provides flexibility to switch a decision after more information is available through locking in risks while leaving the favorable uncertainties open. The real option concept provides powerful tools not only for contractors, but also state agencies ceiling clauses or other trigger points in uncertain cash flows. One potential application of the real option concept in warranty contracting is to delay the warranty decision until the end of construction when more performance information is available (Cui et al. 2021). Then future maintenance savings could be estimated more accurately, and a better decision can be made on whether to purchase a warranty. Acknowledgments: The writers gratefully acknowledge the support for this research provided by the University Transportation Center for Alabama(UTCA) and the Alabama Contractors39。s (FHwA) Special Experimental Projects (SEPs). SEP No. 14, implemented in 1990, opened the door for innovative contracting methods including lane rental, costplustime bidding, techniques, and warranty clauses. The warranty clauses hold contractors liable for reparationfor performance failures within a warranty period that typically extends from 5 to 7 years. Though New Mexico was not among the original eight states that initiated the use of warranties under SEP No. 14. they have since evaluated the option of warranty contracting and successfully applied it to the New Mexico State Route 44 Project (now . 550), which traverses 118 mi (190 km) from 125 at San Ysidro northwest to Bloomfield, near the Four Corners area. When considering the prospect of infiltrating the northwest corner of New Mexico, New Mexico State Highway and Transportation Department (NMSHTD) [renamed New Mexico Deparunent of Transportation (NMDOT) in 2021], determined that the future maintenance and rehabilitation costs of the upgraded 118 mi of roadway would total about $16,000/lanemi/year over a service life of 20 years (May et al. 2021) totaling just over $15I million. Additionally, they determined that the roadbed and surface upgrades would take almost 27 years to plete using normal contracting methods. In an effort to keep the highway in good condition for the long term, NMSHTD purchased a 20year warranty agreement from Mesa PDC who in turn guaranteed the pavement performance during the warranty period. Thc39。 Valuing the Warranty Ceiling Clause on New Mexico Highway 44 Using a Binomial Lattice Model Abstract: In 1998 the New Mexico State Highway and Transportation Department (NMSHTD) agree