【正文】 EUR millions)Multiples interval (x)–––––1,4006005001,0001,0002,1007006001,6001,200* Estimated 2022 34APPENDIX35CALCULATION OF BETA VALUES*Levered beta (Equity beta)Predicted beta including the effect of capital structureThis beta value is used for each of the parable paniesPredicted betas can be found in the BARRA databaseUnlevered betaThe predicted beta adjusted for the effect of capital structureThe levered betas of the parable panies are adjusted for the effect of capital structure and an average of the unlevered betas is calculatedRelevered betaThe average unlevered beta for the parable panies “relevered” with the target’s capital structureThe beta value used in the calculation of WACC* For further reading on beta refer to “Valuation” by Copeland, Koller amp。A is added back. The cash flow effect of working capital is the incremental change from year to year19THE TECHNICAL PARAMETERS IN THE DCF ANALYSIS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON VALUECommentsWACC? WACC? Beta? WACC is used to discount the future free cash flows back to the valuation date? WACC should be calculated (example will follow) and depends on market risk, industry risk and capital structure? The beta value is an estimate of the pany’s volatility pared to the market portfolio (systematic risk)? Beta should be calculated based on parable panies (examples will follow)Terminal value? Terminal growth rate? Free cash flow in the terminal year (last year of the forecast period if the year is normalized)? The terminal value usually accounts for more than 50% of the total value? The terminal growth rate is the rate at which the free cash flow after the forecast period grows every year in perpetuity? The free cash flow in the terminal year forms the basis of the terminal value and should be realistic and obtainable in the forecast period? The free cash flow should be normalized with stable operating parameters, . EBIT, CAPEX, etc.Number to be calculated or estimated20WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATIONWACC Cost of equityMarket valueAggregate value*x+Cost of debtNet debtAggregate value*xRisk free rate = Rate on government bond, . 10year bondMarket risk premium = Premium that the investor requires to invest in the market portfolio instead of a risk free investment. The figure is a constant.* Aggregate value = market value + debtCost of equityRisk free rate+Market risk premiumRelevered betax==Cost of debtBorrowing ratex(1tax rate)21SAMPLE CALCULATION OF WACCAssumptionsRisk free rate:Market risk premium:Relevered beta:Market value:Aggregate value*:Borrowing rate**:Tax rate:%%4,8366,636%%CalculationsCost of equity x weight(% + % x ) x= % x = %4,8366,636Borrowing rate x (1tax rate) x weight% x () x 1,8006,636= % x = %%%WACC %* Aggregate value = market value + debt = 4,836 + 1,800 = 6,636** A risk premium may have to be added. Check with CFamp。 quantify afterwards13OVERVIEW OF THE DCF CALCULATIONNet debtEquity valueFor every year in the forecast period, the free cash flow is calculated and discounted back to the time of valuationThe last year of the forecast period should be a ”normalized” year with stable cash flow elements, . EBIT, CAPEX, etc.WACC = XX%AVThe terminal growth rate is used to grow the free cash flow in the last year of the forecast period into perpetuityFree cash flow is discounted at WACCAV is the present value of future free cash flows0 1 2 3 4Terminal growth rate= XX%The last year of the forecast period is also used as the basis for the calculation of terminal valueTerminal value+14THE DCF PROCES CONSISTS OF 4 STEPSDiscounting cash flowsForecast Free cash flow calculationWACC calculation and terminal value+15BUILDING THE BASICS FOR A BULLET PROOF FORECAST? Historical developments for all elements of the forecasts (. cost of goods sold, personnel costs) are required to demonstrate that the starting point is realistic? Forecasts need to be tested with key managers in a format they can relate to? Use budget values for year 1 if at all possible as this normally has good supporting data and action plans? Key parameters in the forecast (. EBIT) should line up with published figures to reduce suspicions of manipulation and allow for consistency checksAnchor forecast to known definitions and reporting formats? Identify 510 levers that will drive EBIT? Quantify impact of specific improvements for each lever over the full DCF period based on historical evidence or best practice within the industry? Develop short profiles of programs to drive improvements for each leverIdentify key levers to drive improvements? Work through each lever and discuss size of improvement ? Review ways of documenting that improvement is achievable? Discuss how to present improvement, in particular what level of detail is required to describe improvement programTest improvements with management16? Expand number of stores? Remodel stores? Improve sales per customer– Assortment development– Allocation of space– Execution of instore promotions– Stockout reduction– Etc.? Increase number of customers per store– Marketing– Pricing– New assortments/services– Etc. 2022 Better space allocationEXAMPLE: FORECASTING REVENUES FOR A RETAILER2022EUR millionsPotential levers to drive revenuesNew storesMarket growthRevenue forecastChosen leversForecast can be broken down by lever and